What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[celedhring]

I suppose another option is:

a') Trump whines and complains about a rigged election without doing anything himself, but some bugaloo nutjobs do their bugaloo nutjob thing somewhere in the US. Essentially riots without coup.

[Sheilbh]

I suppose another option is:

a') Trump whines and complains about a rigged election without doing anything himself, but some bugaloo nutjobs do their bugaloo nutjob thing somewhere in the US. Essentially riots without coup.

Yeah. I think what might happen is Trump moans and possibly starts a lot of lawsuits because as an individual businessman and President he's been quite succesful through vexatious litigation. I could also see him leaning into QAnon without ever coming out and saying it. I expect he will insinuate a lot of plots to remove him etc.

At the same time you get a chunk of voters - maybe up to 25% - who refuse to accept the legitimacy of the election/Biden administration. I can see lots of armed protests like we had over lockdown in some states probably like Michigan etc that might swing back, especially if they have a Democratic Governor.

I can see some Republican Governors/Secretaries of State launching investigations (which will go nowhere and do nothing but damage the credibility of the elections). And I think it's more than likely that there'll be a continuity Trump wing of the GOP so possible Presidential candidates may keep their powder dry and just express their "deep concern" at Trump's statements and these allegation of election rigging which must be thoroughly investigated - because I suspect it'll be tough to win the nomination in 2024 without some of the Trump vote.

And we have examples from the last few years of basically boogaloo/far-right domestic terrorism and I can see that increasing. Especially if they're in the wing of politics that is waiting, optimistically, for a second civil war this could be a trigger for them to act.

Again, with the Polish/QAnon comparison - and I don't know the scale of belief - but there's a chunk of the electorate that fully believe that Donald Trump is in power by accident and able, as a sort-of real tribune of the people, to reveal the mass child-smuggling and sex abuse rings that permeate the entire American state and establishment. If that's your baseline position at this point, then I think you'll be willing to believe that those child smuggling paedophiles have removed him and that this is a battle for the soul of your country and for the safety of a huge number of children. I can see some of that chunk using violence because they believe it is an existential fight - and this is the progression of the whole "Flight 93 Election".

But despite all that it's basically normal, peaceful transition of power between parties. Many (most?) elected Republicans accept the defeat. Biden takes office and Trump leaves (I can't see him pulling an AMLO, but I wouldn't be surprised if he refuses to attend the inauguration). The courts bat away Trump's challenges. The investigations find no evidence of manipulation or rigging etc. But the overall legitimacy of the system is undermined.

Edit: Incidentally this from one journo:

GOP insiders to us: "Trump doesn't want to be called a loser that's why he's floating this delay."

Is why I think we under-rate the possibility of Trump saying he has succeeded in making America great again and he won't run for re-election (also the Democrats and deep state traitors are conspiring against him) so anything that happens from now (including a catastrophic loss) isn't his fault.

I wouldn't even be that surprised if he did at the convention. For the ratings.

[The Larch]

I sincerely hope that you're vastly overestimating the importance of the nutjob wing of the GOP, Sheilbh.

[FunkMonk]

Their own internal polls must be pretty bad 

[Valmy]

Is why I think we under-rate the possibility of Trump saying he has succeeded in making America great again and he won't run for re-election (also the Democrats and deep state traitors are conspiring against him) so anything that happens from now (including a catastrophic loss) isn't his fault.

I wouldn't even be that surprised if he did at the convention. For the ratings.

You think way too much of Donald Trump. That would be a very sophisticated authoritarian play.

[merithyn]

In a beautiful suburb of Iowa? I assume he means a beautiful suburb in Iowa, but do beautiful suburbs actually exist anywhere, never mind in Iowa?

Clive and Coralville are quite nice.

[merithyn]

The leaks from the Supreme Court are fascinating. In this one it feels like Kavanaugh is intensely political in a way that the other conservative members aren't (for different reason):
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/29/politics/brett-kavanaugh-supreme-court-abortion-trump-documents/index.html

Who could have seen that coming? 

[Sheilbh]

You think way too much of Donald Trump. That would be a very sophisticated authoritarian play.

I'm not sure it's that complimentary, you know, I don't think he's an idiot and I don't think he entirely drinks his own kool-aid. I think if he was like that I don't think he'd be as needy or insecure as he is. He knows that when they leave his company all the "adults in the room" think he's a joke - just like they did in New York.

And I think he's entirely self-centred. If he thinks he is going to be humiliated he will look for a way out (that he can sell the best and that gets the best ratings) and screw everyone else.

I don't think Trump makes political plays. It's character that drives everything he does - it's like the scorpion and the frog, he cannot do otherwise.

[Caliga]

I don't think Trump makes political plays. It's character that drives everything he does - it's like the scorpion and the frog, he cannot do otherwise.

[The Minsky Moment]

but there's a chunk of the electorate that fully believe that Donald Trump is in power by accident and able, as a sort-of real tribune of the people, to reveal the mass child-smuggling and sex abuse rings that permeate the entire American state and establishment.

They may be correct, he seems to have a close connection with Maxwell ...

[merithyn]

In a beautiful suburb of Iowa? I assume he means a beautiful suburb in Iowa, but do beautiful suburbs actually exist anywhere, never mind in Iowa?

I've spent time in some lovely suburbs: St. Charles, IL, Princeton Heights, NJ, Potomac, MD, etc.

[Solmyr]

Not the Onion: ICE Agents Complain About Nazi Comparisons, Say They're Only Enforcing the Laws

[The Brain]

They are only obeying orders? This changes everything.

[Eddie Teach]

Well, the US has better laws than the Third Reich.

[The Brain]

Well, the US has better laws than the Third Reich.

Great laws. Probably the best laws ever. Not many people know this. Enjoy!