What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[crazy canuck]

So I am being told that the markets falling and Treasury yields spiking at the same time is bad, is happening now, and we are all doomed because of it.

Can anybody explain why this particular combination is particularly doomerish?

The basic problem is this - historically the US bond market has been the safe haven. So when people are deciding where to put their money when there is a stock correction, that is usually where the money goes.  That has the effect of driving down yields and so the lending rates for banks also goes down, because it is the bond market that generally determines those rates.  That also drives down the cost of government financing intervention to fix whatever it is that is causing the market to decline.

So now you have the worst of all worlds, stock markets crashing and bond yields going up because rather than buying into the US treasury market, people are fleeing that too.

There is also the more structural problem that this could be a signal that the US currency is losing its status as the default trading currency.  And I don't know all the ramifications of that, but it's not good for the US.

[The Minsky Moment]

So I am being told that the markets falling and Treasury yields spiking at the same time is bad, is happening now, and we are all doomed because of it.

Can anybody explain why this particular combination is particularly doomerish?

When economic news is bad, it tends to: (1) increase the perceived probability of a Fed rate cut (good for bonds, lowers yields), and (2) cause a flight to safety, which usually means US treasury bonds (again, lowers yields)

If US bond yields are going up at the same time, that means some combination of high inflation expectations and/or that treasuries are not considered safe anymore.  Either of those things is really bad.

[The Minsky Moment]

And now a 90 day pause except for China that is now getting 125%.

This season's finale of The Apprentice is awful, falling back on the totally cliched "It was all a dream" plot.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Anyone privy to Trump's thought processes must be making an absolute fortune 

On the other hand, what a dreadful time to take the plunge and make a substantial real investment anywhere.

[Valmy]

And now a 90 day pause except for China that is now getting 125%.

That is an interpretation. Is it even true? What is Reciprocal Tariff? I have no idea.

[PJL]

So I am being told that the markets falling and Treasury yields spiking at the same time is bad, is happening now, and we are all doomed because of it.

Can anybody explain why this particular combination is particularly doomerish?

When economic news is bad, it tends to: (1) increase the perceived probability of a Fed rate cut (good for bonds, lowers yields), and (2) cause a flight to safety, which usually means US treasury bonds (again, lowers yields)

If US bond yields are going up at the same time, that means some combination of high inflation expectations and/or that treasuries are not considered safe anymore.  Either of those things is really bad.

I suspect this is the reason Trump has backed down. He was expecting the first but not the second. The stock market tanking was WAD, but the bond yields going up weren't.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

That is an interpretation. Is it even true? What is Reciprocal Tariff? I have no idea.

CNBC is saying 125% for China, 10% for everybody else.  10% is still a pretty big hike on most places (especially Europe).

[Zanza]

The damage is done anyway. Utter unpredictability.

What about the special categories like steel or vehicles?

[Valmy]

That is an interpretation. Is it even true? What is Reciprocal Tariff? I have no idea.

CNBC is saying 125% for China, 10% for everybody else.  10% is still a pretty big hike on most places (especially Europe).

Yeah. Though I guess it is Trump's genius to get everybody to interpret "massive tariff on China plus 10% on the entire world" as "a tariff freeze". Still a massive increase on tariffs.

[Baron von Schtinkenbutt]

The damage is done anyway. Utter unpredictability.

What about the special categories like steel or vehicles?

Yeah, Trump continues to make the US unattractive to serious investment due to constantly flip-flopping on shit.  Uncertainty is bad.

[HVC]

Anyone privy to Trump's thought processes must be making an absolute fortune 

On the other hand, what a dreadful time to take the plunge and make a substantial real investment anywhere.

Dementia and incompetence is hard to divine.

[HVC]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DILkfVzt-vs

Gotta hand it to Chinese propaganda

[Zoupa]

Man, this pause in tariffs is really gonna impact the US factory I built last week.

[Jacob]

Man, this pause in tariffs is really gonna impact the US factory I built last week.

This is the perfect time to build another factory in the US. Quickly import the necessary inputs that can't be sourced locally without much in the way of tariffs, then build it in time for the tariffs to come back in 90 days. 

[DGuller]

To give Trump credit where credit is due, has Biden ever single-handedly make the stock market go up by 9% in a single day?