Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[OttoVonBismarck]

Also, while I'm dim on Britain keeping Scotland long term (once you accept secession as a valid political option I believe it becomes inevitable, which is why I think Spain has been smart to fight against even having a secession vote), the only way Scotland isn't gone in the next 10-15 years is with a Norway style arrangement. Because that puts Scottish voters in a position where they have to choose between staying in Britain (which largely props up its shitty economy with a small and demographically less than ideal population) with EU benefits or leaving Britain, probably suffering for 5-7 years outside the EU, and then getting back in and still being out the benefits it receives from the British state.

[Valmy]

Is Britain not growing population wise? I thought the thing that made the British so angry was that too many people wanted to move and work there.

[alfred russel]

I don't think they should leave, despite the vote. It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way.

Why? Norway and Switzerland are getting along just fine.

So? They were never in the EU to begin with.

Show me a country in the EU that left and is doing just as well.

If they never entered the EU I might even argue that they are better off not getting in, but leaving once you are in? Different thing entirely.

The european union was founded in 1993 and to my knowledge no country has left it. If your best argument for UK being "terrible in every way" is that no one has ever left the EU, it isn't that persuasive.

Do you know that the FTSE is now trading higher than pre brexit levels? The pound has lost some value, but in the 10ish% range. Merkel has publicly stated that they should not be punative with exit terms.

I'm not sure why something terrible in every way for Britain is preordained.

[LaCroix]

it's also not persuasive to compare, in this context, a country with 5 million people to a country with 64 million people

[alfred russel]

it's also not persuasive to compare, in this context, a country with 5 million people to a country with 64 million people

If a small country can live without EU institutions, and negotiate a positive relationship with the EU, it should be easier for a large country.

[Josquius]

I called it.

The european union was founded in 1993 and to my knowledge no country has left it. If your best argument for UK being "terrible in every way" is that no one has ever left the EU, it isn't that persuasive.

Do you know that the FTSE is now trading higher than pre brexit levels? The pound has lost some value, but in the 10ish% range. Merkel has publicly stated that they should not be punative with exit terms.

I'm not sure why something terrible in every way for Britain is preordained.

The pound is slightly higher than Monday but still very very low.
Do remember the pound was already at artificially low levels due to the threat of brexit.

The FTSE is not higher than pre-brexit levels.
Again, up on Monday but still not doing great.

And what recovery there is is largely based on the fact that it seems we are safe for a few years at least.

[LaCroix]

If a small country can live without EU institutions, and negotiate a positive relationship with the EU, it should be easier for a large country.

are we changing the analysis to whether a country can survive? I thought the original post referred to how terrible it would be for the UK to exit.

[Valmy]

it's also not persuasive to compare, in this context, a country with 5 million people to a country with 64 million people

If a small country can live without EU institutions, and negotiate a positive relationship with the EU, it should be easier for a large country.

I don't think anybody is saying the UK will have people starving in the streets without the EU pal

It is just that it would be damaging to UK interests.

[alfred russel]

If a small country can live without EU institutions, and negotiate a positive relationship with the EU, it should be easier for a large country.

are we changing the analysis to whether a country can survive? I thought the original post referred to how terrible it would be for the UK to exit.

I think Norway and Switzerland are doing far better than surviving.

[Valmy]

I think Norway and Switzerland are doing far better than surviving.

Well clearly Germany should just copy their policies then.

[Berkut]

If a small country can live without EU institutions, and negotiate a positive relationship with the EU, it should be easier for a large country.

are we changing the analysis to whether a country can survive? I thought the original post referred to how terrible it would be for the UK to exit.

I think Norway and Switzerland are doing far better than surviving.

Again, they are both small and have never been in the EU, so trying to understand what damage might be done by a ten times larger comapny exiting the EU based on very small countries not even in the EU seems to be rather, well...ridiculous?

[alfred russel]

I don't think anybody is saying the UK will have people starving in the streets without the EU pal

It is just that it would be damaging to UK interests.

Someone mentioned, "It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way."

That seems a bit overblown imo. The sky won't fall. FWIW so far the results of the referendum seem to have resulted in a weaker pound, an arguably better outlook for UK exporters (obviously the weaker pound helps, but that could be offset by trade barriers--the FTSE has actually gone up in value), and Tory & Labour leadership struggles. It also seems to have sparked a boom in the industry of hand wringing editorials.

[Agelastus]

The FTSE is not higher than pre-brexit levels.

The FTSE 100 is above pre-Brexit levels, and has dragged the FTSE 350 up with it.

However, the FTSE 250, which is probably more indicative of opinion of the British economy, is still well down; as is, as you pointed out, the pound.

[alfred russel]

Again, they are both small and have never been in the EU, so trying to understand what damage might be done by a ten times larger comapny exiting the EU based on very small countries not even in the EU seems to be rather, well...ridiculous?

It would obviously be terrible for the UK in every way. No reason to consider any alternatives.

[CountDeMoney]

Will the elimination of relaxed employment-based EU migration policies do anything for housing and rental costs in England?