Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

I watched the European Parliament this morning. Juncker is still a man to give a Remain voter buyer's remorse and I predict a lot of the sneering comments are being cut into videos for populist right parties all across Europe.

Watching Farage makes me less sad about Britain leaving. 

Yeah Sheilbh why does everybody have to kiss Farage's ass right when he is telling them 'fuck you'?

[The Larch]

British fishermen warned Brexit will not mean greater catches
Fisheries chiefs and campaigners say current catch quotas will continue until the UK leaves the EU, and new arrangements may not be more generous

British fishermen have been warned that, despite the promises made by the leave campaign, they cannot expect to be granted greater catches after the UK leaves the European Union, and they may face increased economic turmoil.

Fishermen will have to remain within their current catch quotas while the UK is still a member, and even if new arrangements are negotiated after a Brexit, they will not necessarily be more generous, fisheries chiefs and campaigners have warned.

British fishing fleets will still be bound by international agreements on fish stocks that must now be worked out, and which may not be to their benefit.

"Promises have been made and expectations raised during the referendum campaign and it is now time to examine if and how they can be delivered," said the National Federation of Fishermen's Organisations.

"Unfortunately, perhaps, the UK's geopolitical position means that it is not politically or legally possible just to ringfence most of our fish resources, in the way that, for example, Iceland can. The reality is that most of our stocks are shared with other countries to some degree or other.

"We can certainly seek to renegotiate quota shares, as well as access arrangements, but it is realistic to expect that there will be a price. Who will pay that price is a critical question."

The cost could, in theory, be subsidised by the government, or it could be borne by consumers, though this would depend on the price of fish to be imported, if UK fisheries are to remain competitive. The effects on fishing fleets are likely to vary across the UK. Many fishermen currently benefit from EU subsidies to help them buy better boats with new nets that help to preserve fish stocks, for instance by allowing juvenile fish to swim clear.

A spokesman for the European commission told the Guardian: "It is far too early to speculate on this question [of what will happen to fisheries]. That will be addressed in due course, once negotiations with the UK begin on its withdrawal agreement as well as on the agreement concerning its future relationship with the EU. For the time being, nothing changes."

Although there are only about 11,000 people directly employed in fishing in the UK, nearly half of them in Scotland, which voted to stay in Europe. The industry was made a touchstone by Leave campaigners.

Nigel Farage, of Ukip, led a small flotilla of fishermen up the Thames days before the vote, to be greeted by rival boats led by Bob Geldof, leading to a charged encounter. The murdered Labour MP, Jo Cox, sailed to the Houses of Parliament in a dinghy on the same day, with her husband and two young children, bearing a Remain flag.

Scottish political leaders have been adamant that they should not bear the brunt of any disadvantage arising from renewed negotiations on fishing after a Brexit. Angus MacNeil, the Scottish National party MP, tweeted: "Met a young fisherman last night livid about Brexit - he has just bought a fishing boat with EU grant help!"

The New Economics Foundation, which closely follows EU fishing policy, warned that fishermen should not bargain on any quick change. "Those communities and fishers hoping for an immediate end to EU quotas will be sorely disappointed. In reality, there will be years of renegotiations, and given the small size of fishing compared to other industries, there is little chance it will be seen as a priority," said economist Griffin Carpenter.

Other green campaigners called for ministers to draw up a plan for sustainable fishing following the UK's departure from the EU. Trevor Hutchings of WWF-UK said: "The government must deliver a coherent plan for maintaining and conserving the marine environment as a whole. This must recognise that fish stocks do not respect national boundaries. Effective management will rely on international cooperation."

Will McCallum, head of oceans at Greenpeace UK, pointed out that the Westminster government, rather than Brussels, was in charge of allocating the EU-agreed fishing quota, and had chosen for years to give most of it to a handful of large corporations rather than to the smaller fishermen who have most to lose.

He said: "Leaving the EU has often been held up as a magic pill for the UK's fishing industry. But now we've voted to leave, it is far from plain sailing. One thing is clear: the UK government cannot settle back into its old habit of privileging a handful of large companies to the detriment of the UK's small-scale fishermen. It wasn't the EU that gave almost two-thirds of the entire fishing quota of England and Wales to just three companies - it was the British government."

Scotland's fishermen are likely to face further uncertainty, as calls for a new referendum on independence have raised the prospect that it could remain a member of the EU. Bertie Armstrong, chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen's Federation, said: "The result of the [EU] referendum brings both opportunities and challenges. It is vital that we have clarity from the UK and Scottish governments on their future intentions for fishing."

Vote Leave declined to comment.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/28/british-fishermen-warned-brexit-will-not-mean-greater-catches

[Valmy]

What did I tell you about the 10,000 unicorn promises? This is exactly why this referendum should never have taken place.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Not just PR but the d'Hondt system which even I, as someone who enjoys elections, has literally no idea or understanding of how it reaches the results it does.

perfectly understandable that it's incomprehensible... invented in Belgium after all...

[Sheilbh]

I watched the European Parliament this morning. Juncker is still a man to give a Remain voter buyer's remorse and I predict a lot of the sneering comments are being cut into videos for populist right parties all across Europe.

Watching Farage makes me less sad about Britain leaving. 

Yeah Sheilbh why does everybody have to kiss Farage's ass right when he is telling them 'fuck you'?

What? They don't. He's a prick and I have no issue with Parliaments shouting people down

Juncker made a statement and all the party leaders of the Parliament gave their response to the vote (as Farage gave his). As I say I think the sneering at the vote and then the calls for more Europe - I heard suggestions of European counter-terrorism (from a Belgian!), European border guards, European military forces, single European budgets etc. As I say they'll be going into the populist and far right's campaigns all over Europe.

[Josquius]

Junker is a dick.
Farage is a horrible cunt.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Junker is a dick.
Farage is a horrible cunt.

ah, a match made in heaven then

[Admiral Yi]

How is Junker a dick?

[Zanza]

Angela Merkel's remarks today on Brexit and the German position on it:

Speaking to the German parliament ahead of the summit on Tuesday, Ms. Merkel said the U.K. wouldn't be able to gain full access to the single market of goods and services unless it shared some of the obligations of membership. [...]

"We will ensure that negotiations won't be conducted according to the principle of cherry-picking," she said. "Those wanting to leave the family can't expect all obligations to become obsolete while privileges would continue to exist."

[...]

In her remarks to the German parliament on Tuesday, Ms. Merkel called on the European bloc to debate all proposals that would bring its members closer together, including those that would return some EU powers to its member states.

[...]

At a closed-door meeting of leaders of the center-right European People's Party, which includes national leaders in government and opposition, Ms. Merkel delivered a harsh verdict on Mr. Cameron, suggesting that he had called the referendum primarily to settle turmoil in his Conservative Party, according to someone who took notes on her remarks. "The principle should always be: Country, party, person. Cameron did it the other way around. And when you do that, things always go wrong," the person quoted Ms. Merkel as saying. Mr. Cameron wasn't present at the meeting.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-leaders-meet-in-brussels-over-brexit-1467105868

[Sheilbh]

Although I think it's possible Corbyn will be ineligible in the next leadership election, I guess the Labour party general secretary (Iain McNicol) gets to rule on whether the 20% rule applies to the incumbent. If he does, then 20% of sitting Labour MPs would have to endorse Corbyn (same as for any challenger) for him to appear on the ballot. His support is so horrific among actual MPs, he may not meet this threshold. If that happens the establishment Labour gets to keep the party machinery--but it likely doesn't avert a split. Corbyn and all his £3 followers could very well split off and form their own party in rage as a response to that.

If Corbyn manages to get 20% then he'd likely win another leadership election; in which case the establishment will quite possibly split.

So there's a real, genuine chance Labor splits as a party in the coming 12 months.

Yeah, it's quite the show. At the same time the Tories will have their own leadership struggle at a time where they have not conclusively settled their internal issues with the EU.

Yeah I don't think we've ever simultaneously had both main parties having leadership elections/crises.

For what it's worth I think Corbyn would be the favourite in a race because most of the grassroots still support him and it looks like the unions are ready to back him again.

Edit: See this article. It's a personality cult, not like anything I think we've ever had in this country:

Momentum and unions prepare for new Corbyn campaign after revolt
Supporters of Corbyn gear up for Labour leadership election after overwhelming vote of no confidence from party MPs
Ewen MacAskill, Caelainn Barr and Matthew Holmes
Tuesday 28 June 2016 20.23 BST Last modified on Tuesday 28 June 2016 22.01 BST

Grassroots organisations such as Momentum and some of the biggest trade unions are preparing for a new leadership campaign in defence of Jeremy Corbyn after an overwhelming vote of no confidence from Labour MPs.

Momentum, set up after Corbyn's victory last September to build on the enthusiasm generated during his campaign, held rallies in Newcastle, Leeds and Bristol on Tuesday after the vote. Thousands had demonstrated outside parliament on Monday night.

Corbyn has a strong chance of fending off a challenge if he can retain the support of the unions and the loyalty of the hundreds of thousands of members. He won in September with 59.5% of the vote.

MPs seeking to remove him are hoping much of that support has been eroded by discontent with his performances against David Cameron at prime minister's questions, by scepticism over his ability to win a general election and by his lacklustre campaign in support of remain in the European Union referendum.

They also hope that by fielding just one candidate against him rather than three they stand a better chance of removing him.

Crucially for Corbyn, one of the biggest unions, Unite, has thrown its weight behind him. Shrugging off speculation that Unite's support for him was wavering, Len McCluskey confirmed his continued support for the Labour leader. "The extraordinary behaviour of Labour MPs has achieved nothing beyond diverting attention from a Tory government in crisis," McCluskey said.

"If anyone wants to change the Labour leadership, they must do it openly and democratically through an election, not through resignations and pointless posturing. If there has to be such an election, Jeremy Corbyn's supporters throughout the movement will be ready for it."

The unions played a crucial role in the previous Labour leadership election, providing the financial backing as well as contributing activists to organise campaign events and staff phone banks.

Manuel Cortes, the general secretary of the Transport Salaried Staffs' Association, also backed Corbyn. "It is almost unbelievable to watch the Labour party plunge into a crisis of its own making as its MPs involve themselves in childish, self-indulgent behaviour which doesn't befit their office," he said.

James Schneider, a spokesman for Momentum, which claims to have up to 100,000 members, said: "I think an enormous part of the Labour party membership and the Labour movement will be upset, disappointed and angry at the parliamentary Labour party's vote."

He added: "The grassroots of the Labour movement, including Momentum, are gearing up to support the leadership they elected."

Ross Quinn, a spokesman for Momentum on Merseyside, which was holding an emergency meeting on Tuesday night in Liverpool, said they had been expecting the challenge since the day Corbyn had been elected but were confident of the outcome.

"Last year, we had to start from nothing. This time we have lots of people in place. We expect to repeat or do better than the numbers last year," Quinn said.

A snap survey of Guardian readers, started on Monday, suggested that Corbyn still enjoys a large amount of support among party members in spite of reservations about his performance since becoming leader. The survey, to which more than 4,000 people responded (88% of them Labour members), is not scientific but does offer a large pool of opinions.

Even allowing for the likelihood that a disproportionate number of Corbyn supporters would have responded, there is much anger at the sniping against him by the parliamentary Labour party since the day he became leader.

The survey, conducted by the Guardian community team, asked readers a series of questions including whether they had voted for Corbyn last year, whether they planned to vote for him again, how they felt about his performance, and how they voted in last week's European referendum.

Almost 90% of those who responded voted remain in the referendum in line with Labour's position.

Of the respondents, 81% voted for Corbyn last year. Of those who voted for him last year, 95% continue to support him as party leader and said they were intending to vote for him again.

Vicky Ratcliffe, 37, a Labour member from London, said she would not be voting for Corbyn and expressed unhappiness over the referendum campaign. She said she did not vote for Corbyn last time but had been prepared to give him a chance to prove her wrong, but he did not. "His participation in the remain campaign was reluctant at best, and obstinate sabotage at the worst," she wrote.

Ratcliffe, a community engagement specialist, added: "We need new blood. Young blood. The passion we have seen the Scottish National party develop north of the border. A British Justin Trudeau if possible."

Among Corbyn supporters, Ros Sunley, 59, from Dorset, who is self-employed and intends to vote for him again, wrote: "I fully support Jeremy Corbyn and I am disgusted and appalled at the attitude and behaviour of those MPs who have set up the coup against him."

Paddy Denning, 45, a teacher from Darlington, wrote: "I would not support any other candidate – but particularly important is that those who have publicly briefed against or undermined an elected leader should never serve the party again in any capacity, not even as MPs.

"We held off on deselections because Jeremy asked members to do so. This failed coup is a declaration of an anti-democratic war on the party membership."

[Hamilcar]

For what it's worth I think Corbyn would be the favourite in a race because most of the grassroots still support him and it looks like the unions are ready to back him again.

The Labour MPs should defect to the LibDems just to stir things up.

[citizen k]

Edit: See this article. It's a personality cult, not like anything I think we've ever had in this country:

Momentum and unions prepare for new Corbyn campaign after revolt
Supporters of Corbyn gear up for Labour leadership election after overwhelming vote of no confidence from party MPs
Ewen MacAskill, Caelainn Barr and Matthew Holmes
Tuesday 28 June 2016 20.23 BST Last modified on Tuesday 28 June 2016 22.01 BST

Grassroots organisations such as Momentum and some of the biggest trade unions are preparing for a new leadership campaign in defence of Jeremy Corbyn after an overwhelming vote of no confidence from Labour MPs.

Momentum, set up after Corbyn's victory last September to build on the enthusiasm generated during his campaign, held rallies in Newcastle, Leeds and Bristol on Tuesday after the vote. Thousands had demonstrated outside parliament on Monday night.

Corbyn has a strong chance of fending off a challenge if he can retain the support of the unions and the loyalty of the hundreds of thousands of members. He won in September with 59.5% of the vote.

MPs seeking to remove him are hoping much of that support has been eroded by discontent with his performances against David Cameron at prime minister's questions, by scepticism over his ability to win a general election and by his lacklustre campaign in support of remain in the European Union referendum.

They also hope that by fielding just one candidate against him rather than three they stand a better chance of removing him.

Crucially for Corbyn, one of the biggest unions, Unite, has thrown its weight behind him. Shrugging off speculation that Unite's support for him was wavering, Len McCluskey confirmed his continued support for the Labour leader. "The extraordinary behaviour of Labour MPs has achieved nothing beyond diverting attention from a Tory government in crisis," McCluskey said.

"If anyone wants to change the Labour leadership, they must do it openly and democratically through an election, not through resignations and pointless posturing. If there has to be such an election, Jeremy Corbyn's supporters throughout the movement will be ready for it."

The unions played a crucial role in the previous Labour leadership election, providing the financial backing as well as contributing activists to organise campaign events and staff phone banks.

Manuel Cortes, the general secretary of the Transport Salaried Staffs' Association, also backed Corbyn. "It is almost unbelievable to watch the Labour party plunge into a crisis of its own making as its MPs involve themselves in childish, self-indulgent behaviour which doesn't befit their office," he said.

James Schneider, a spokesman for Momentum, which claims to have up to 100,000 members, said: "I think an enormous part of the Labour party membership and the Labour movement will be upset, disappointed and angry at the parliamentary Labour party's vote."

He added: "The grassroots of the Labour movement, including Momentum, are gearing up to support the leadership they elected."

Ross Quinn, a spokesman for Momentum on Merseyside, which was holding an emergency meeting on Tuesday night in Liverpool, said they had been expecting the challenge since the day Corbyn had been elected but were confident of the outcome.

"Last year, we had to start from nothing. This time we have lots of people in place. We expect to repeat or do better than the numbers last year," Quinn said.

A snap survey of Guardian readers, started on Monday, suggested that Corbyn still enjoys a large amount of support among party members in spite of reservations about his performance since becoming leader. The survey, to which more than 4,000 people responded (88% of them Labour members), is not scientific but does offer a large pool of opinions.

Even allowing for the likelihood that a disproportionate number of Corbyn supporters would have responded, there is much anger at the sniping against him by the parliamentary Labour party since the day he became leader.

The survey, conducted by the Guardian community team, asked readers a series of questions including whether they had voted for Corbyn last year, whether they planned to vote for him again, how they felt about his performance, and how they voted in last week's European referendum.

Almost 90% of those who responded voted remain in the referendum in line with Labour's position.

Of the respondents, 81% voted for Corbyn last year. Of those who voted for him last year, 95% continue to support him as party leader and said they were intending to vote for him again.

Vicky Ratcliffe, 37, a Labour member from London, said she would not be voting for Corbyn and expressed unhappiness over the referendum campaign. She said she did not vote for Corbyn last time but had been prepared to give him a chance to prove her wrong, but he did not. "His participation in the remain campaign was reluctant at best, and obstinate sabotage at the worst," she wrote.

Ratcliffe, a community engagement specialist, added: "We need new blood. Young blood. The passion we have seen the Scottish National party develop north of the border. A British Justin Trudeau if possible."

Among Corbyn supporters, Ros Sunley, 59, from Dorset, who is self-employed and intends to vote for him again, wrote: "I fully support Jeremy Corbyn and I am disgusted and appalled at the attitude and behaviour of those MPs who have set up the coup against him."

Paddy Denning, 45, a teacher from Darlington, wrote: "I would not support any other candidate – but particularly important is that those who have publicly briefed against or undermined an elected leader should never serve the party again in any capacity, not even as MPs.

"We held off on deselections because Jeremy asked members to do so. This failed coup is a declaration of an anti-democratic war on the party membership."

He's your Bernie Sanders.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Merkel is right on Cameron--he gambled with his country's future for partisan political purposes, he really is a disgrace and will be ranked in the pantheon of worst PMs for sure.

[Agelastus]

On the subject of fishing, I fail to see why this little farrago would still stand should we leave - unless we use continued access as a bargaining chip given the state of our fishing industry after 40 years in the EU -

The first rules were created in 1970. The original six Common Market members realized that four countries applying to join the Common Market at that time (Britain, Ireland, Denmark and Norway) would control the richest fishing grounds in the world. The original six therefore drew up Council Regulation 2141/70 giving all Members equal access to all fishing waters, even though the Treaty of Rome gave no authority to do this. This was adopted on the morning of 30 June 1970, a few hours before the applications to join were officially received. This ensured that the regulations became part of the acquis communautaire before the new members joined, obliging them to accept the regulation. At first the UK refused to accept the rules but by the end of 1971 the UK gave way and signed the Accession Treaty on 22 January 1972, thereby handing over an estimated four fifths of all the fish off Western Europe.

A quick look at the map of our EEA should demonstrate that our Fishing Industry should have some room to recover upon leaving the EU, even if it won't be immediate.

Unless I'm missing something, of course.

[Sheilbh]

When the Director of Comms and Strategy for Bernie Sanders went on a gap year to Lebanon in the 70s (he's always bragged that it was at a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine camp - which is probably doubtful) and his first job writing for Stalinist paper (literally it was a paper within the CPGB founded to opposed the CPGB's revisionism and deviationism after it mildly criticised the Soviet crushing the Prague Spring) I'll take that comparison. Bernie Sanders is a democratic socialist. But really Corbyn is much, much worse.