Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Martinus]

According to bookie sites, Remain has a higher chance than Hillary becoming the next POTUS - so I am not sure why people are freaking out so much.

[Josquius]

According to bookie sites, Remain has a higher chance than Hillary becoming the next POTUS - so I am not sure why people are freaking out so much.

What if you learn that there's a 25% chance that you will die tomorrow.
Sure. You probably won't.
But that is much too big a chance to be comfortable.

[Richard Hakluyt]

One thing to bear in mind is that the EU crisis continues even if the UK votes remain. It seems that the French, for example, have an even lower opinion of it than we do.

[celedhring]

I never understand why people give so much predictive credit to bookies. Betting odds are determined by how the masses place their bets. Who trusts the masses?

[Sheilbh]

According to bookie sites, Remain has a higher chance than Hillary becoming the next POTUS - so I am not sure why people are freaking out so much.

And Leave has a higher chance than an outright Conservative majority.

Professor Curtice () thinks the bookies are underestimating it. He puts the chance of Leave winning at 40-45% which sounds about right.

[Martinus]

I never understand why people give so much predictive credit to bookies. Betting odds are determined by how the masses place their bets.

I don't believe this is entirely correct - it plays a role but they are also doing their own predictive research.

In any case, I would say there is much more predictive credit here than just relying on polls - the argument being that unlike pollsters, bookies at least put their money where their mouth is.

[celedhring]

They may do their research in order to set the initial odds, but once those are set it's let to float according to the bets placed. Otherwise the financial risk for the bookie would be too high. In general, a bookie wants the same amount of money placed on both sides of the bet, and so the odds are moved accordingly.

So betting odds are mostly a reflection of what the betting public believes will happen. It's just a crowdsourced prediction.

[Admiral Yi]

I never understand why people give so much predictive credit to bookies. Betting odds are determined by how the masses place their bets. Who trusts the masses?

A subset of the masses, who have skin in the game and tend to do their homework.  Plus the collective wisdom of crowds.

[Sheilbh]

The homework is normally polls. A few things punters have predicted over the last few years: coalition break up and an early election, two elections in 2015, Prime Minister Militant.

They're not that great at predicting things and mostly are people who know a bit about politics and fancy a flutter.

Edit: Though I still think we've now had our Scotlandish bit of excitement and it'll be 55-45 to Remain. Probably.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm sticking to my theory that a number of voters will vote with their heads/wallets rather than their hearts come the day 

What I am dreading is a brexit lead which is overturned by the postal votes, that would lead to severe problems in my view.

[Sheilbh]

There's already a weird false flag/conspiracy wing to the Brexiteers.

I've had numerous cabbies tell me they think the vote'll be rigged.

We're all Scottish now

[Martinus]

I thought that voter fraud conspiracy theories were a Polish (i.e. "young democracy") thing, but it seems to me these days every group that does not win screams voter fraud - from Bernie and Trump voters to Brexiters.

This can't have good long term consequences for democracy, can it?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I think they have been a bit casual with postal voting here in the UK. The aim was to increase turnout, but if you can't be bothered to go to a polling station I don't see the value of such a vote anyway (with the obvious exceptions of the disabled, people serving overseas and so on).

[Monoriu]

I wonder why internet voting still hasn't taken place. 

[celedhring]

I wonder why internet voting still hasn't taken place.

Security concerns. And I agree with those concerns.