Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

There's something to that but not an argument for exit:
+ Fiscal policy - the UK already has an independent fiscal policy and Osbornism is no better
+ Social policy - not sure what this refers to but I doubt the Tory government intends to push this farther left
+ Fortress Europe on migration - again, the supposed aim of the Brexiters is to raise the barriers higher.

Agree on all of that. As I say the two big reasons I'm pro-Remain are the impact on Scotland and that it would be the Tories who'd be doing the leaving.

The flip side of course is that the last two of those areas can be changed within the UK through a vote. We can campaign and argue and try to convince people (including the 50% of the country that are Remainers) for a different social and immigration policy.

On fiscal policy we are still independent and again we can change policy through an election (the thing that is effectively impossible in Europe much to the detriment of PASOK, the PSOE, the PS, the PD, the Dutch Labour Party etc.), but there's also an element of how long do we lie back and think of Europe? At what point do you actually oppose a body that's pushing policies you very strongly disagree with? Instead we are watching the decimation of the centre left and wondering how working class communities ended up voting for populist parties.

It's similar on immigration. I find it very difficult to not just think we should leave when I hear Fico's comments about Islam and Muslims. It's a view I fundamentally disagree with and wouldn't want to have anywhere near the migration policy that affects my country - we might as well invite Trump to act as EU raconteur for refugees.

It makes me incredibly angry to see development aid provided to some of the poorest countries in the world being tied to how well they prevent refugees from getting to Europe. That aid isn't tied to need but fluctuates depending on the number of people that reach Lampedusa and Lesbos. And if they do well we'll turn a blind eye to governance and democracy. They can shoot up gay pride marches in Istanbul and war criminals in Khartoum can have all the respect due to a head of state: because they're keeping desperate people away from our consciences.

And to be clear I'm not saying the UK is better on any of those points - which is part of the reason I'll be remaining - but I can vote to change the UK's policies on those points.

[Zanza]

And the UK in the EU can work towards changing EU policy on these points. Certainly more so then outside the EU...
You are the second biggest country and you have natural allies. Use it and don't just sulk in the corner.

[Sheilbh]

You are the second biggest country and you have natural allies. Use it and don't just sulk in the corner.

This is the thing that has annoyed me most about Cameron.

Mostly for domestic political reasons he had to present the entire 'renegotiation' as him bravely fighting Brussels in the model of Thatcher. I think he could have achieved far more had he basically pointed out the falling credibility, legitimacy and belief in Europe and tried to argue for reform within. I think there were potential allies for that. I also think some of that sort of stuff - ie. properly recognising that we'll never join the Euro and need safeguards for that, but we shouldn't be able to hold up further Eurozone integration - would be far more substantial than what he got. To do that he'd have to make the pro-European case for reform which he just can't/won't.

So instead we got lots of phoney arguments over very little. Harold Wilson, but worse.

[The Minsky Moment]

And the UK in the EU can work towards changing EU policy on these points. Certainly more so then outside the EU...
You are the second biggest country and you have natural allies. Use it and don't just sulk in the corner.

Yes this is key point - by withdrawing the UK will make the rump EU that remains have more tendency towards bureaucracy and illiberalism (at least economically if not otherwise).  That is a problem and it is a problem first and foremost for the UK itself because merely exiting the EU doesn't cause Europe to vanish or become less pertinent to Britain.  Indeed apparently the first post Brexit move will be to reapply a significant portion of all those nasty rules. 

Even if all you care about is the UK's own freedom of action, the incremental gain of exit has to be weighed against the loss of freedom of action resulting from the need to nonetheless re-subject oneself to a large number of EU rules which will now be made without British input and likely therefore to be worse in the future.

Similarly, the possibility that the UK may have more flexibility in negotiating trade pacts with the US/Japan/China/whoever has to be weighed against the fact that the EU will be less likely to integrate itself into such agreements and standards, again to the detriment of the UK whose economy is more connected to the EU than many of these other prospective partners.

Somehow I get the sense that many exit voters have not thought that deeply about these second level strategic considerations.

[mongers]

......

Similarly, the possibility that the UK may have more flexibility in negotiating trade pacts with the US/Japan/China/whoever has to be weighed against the fact that the EU will be less likely to integrate itself into such agreements and standards, again to the detriment of the UK whose economy is more connected to the EU than many of these other prospective partners.

Somehow I get the sense that many exit voters have not thought that deeply about these second level strategic considerations.

JR, you're seriously out of touch here, the response of most Brexiters I've meet is guttural, there's very little reasoning involved.

Hence the primary focus of the Brexit campaign, playing on fears of 'dirty foreigners'.

[Josquius]

Muslim foreigners at that

[Martinus]

So which is it?

This:

The EU right now is a hard right fiscal policy, married to a centre right social policy, developing a Fortress Europe on migration. I still don't think there is a positive left-wing case for remaining.

Or this:

JR, you're seriously out of touch here, the response of most Brexiters I've meet is guttural, there's very little reasoning involved.

Hence the primary focus of the Brexit campaign, playing on fears of 'dirty foreigners'.

Muslim foreigners at that

Or should we assume Sheilbh is a leftwing crazo equivalent of UKIP on the right?

[Richard Hakluyt]

You are the second biggest country and you have natural allies. Use it and don't just sulk in the corner.

This is the thing that has annoyed me most about Cameron.

Mostly for domestic political reasons he had to present the entire 'renegotiation' as him bravely fighting Brussels in the model of Thatcher. I think he could have achieved far more had he basically pointed out the falling credibility, legitimacy and belief in Europe and tried to argue for reform within. I think there were potential allies for that. I also think some of that sort of stuff - ie. properly recognising that we'll never join the Euro and need safeguards for that, but we shouldn't be able to hold up further Eurozone integration - would be far more substantial than what he got. To do that he'd have to make the pro-European case for reform which he just can't/won't.

So instead we got lots of phoney arguments over very little. Harold Wilson, but worse.

I agree with both of you on this. British diplomacy has been pitiful.

But Cameron and crew seem to be so ignorant of the world outside the British upper-middle-class, either that or they just don't give a toss.

I recall my envy of the Scots when watching their senior politicians campaigning, regardless of their politics they seemed to have some idea of who their constituents were, their thoughts and fears and what have you.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Some of the tabloids are trying to draft the Queen into the brexit cause :

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-36593000

[Sheilbh]

So which is it?

This:

The EU right now is a hard right fiscal policy, married to a centre right social policy, developing a Fortress Europe on migration. I still don't think there is a positive left-wing case for remaining.

Or this:

JR, you're seriously out of touch here, the response of most Brexiters I've meet is guttural, there's very little reasoning involved.

Hence the primary focus of the Brexit campaign, playing on fears of 'dirty foreigners'.

Muslim foreigners at that

Or should we assume Sheilbh is a leftwing crazo equivalent of UKIP on the right?

....Both?

The Leave campaign - especially the 'unofficial' UKIP one has been pretty racist and there's left-wing reasons to leave? I don't see what the contradiction is.

Though that is a solid assumption

[Martinus]

....Both?

The Leave campaign - especially the 'unofficial' UKIP one has been pretty racist and there's left-wing reasons to leave? I don't see what the contradiction is.

Though that is a solid assumption

There contradiction is in the fact that the reasons given by you as the leftist ones and by right wingers are opposite to each other.

If you say that one of the leftist reasons to leave is that the EU is becoming "fortress Europe" and one of the rightist reasons to leave is that the EU is making it too easy for Muslim immigrants to enter the EU and the UK - isn't that a contradiction?

[Agelastus]

....Both?

The Leave campaign - especially the 'unofficial' UKIP one has been pretty racist and there's left-wing reasons to leave? I don't see what the contradiction is.

Though that is a solid assumption

There contradiction is in the fact that the reasons given by you as the leftist ones and by right wingers are opposite to each other.

If you say that one of the leftist reasons to leave is that the EU is becoming "fortress Europe" and one of the rightist reasons to leave is that the EU is making it too easy for Muslim immigrants to enter the EU and the UK - isn't that a contradiction?

Not really, the Leftist reason is based on the rhetoric of the leadership whereas the rightist reason is based on the apparent reality on the ground.

[Martinus]

....Both?

The Leave campaign - especially the 'unofficial' UKIP one has been pretty racist and there's left-wing reasons to leave? I don't see what the contradiction is.

Though that is a solid assumption

There contradiction is in the fact that the reasons given by you as the leftist ones and by right wingers are opposite to each other.

If you say that one of the leftist reasons to leave is that the EU is becoming "fortress Europe" and one of the rightist reasons to leave is that the EU is making it too easy for Muslim immigrants to enter the EU and the UK - isn't that a contradiction?

Not really, the Leftist reason is based on the rhetoric of the leadership whereas the rightist reason is based on the apparent reality on the ground.

But surely this means one side is wrong - so that's a contradiction. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

There is no contradiction for the individual brexiteer.

Both sides in the referendum are curious coalitions of people who often don't agree very much with each other.

[celedhring]

It reminds me a lot of the left wing Catalan  separatists and their cognitive dissonance. They will point out that Spain has turned harshly to the right in immigration, fiscal and social policy, and that it would be best to untie ourselves from it. Yet they will ignore that Catalan separatism is being driven by the right, and that Catalonia has had more conservative governments than Spain.