Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Is there any precedent for a referendum picking an option that a majority of MPs disagrees with?

No.

Is it likely that they vote against their own convictions in that case?

No. I think it's possible that they'll choose the easiest option out of the EU - eg. the Norwegian option - but there's no way they'd ignore it.

As this is not a referendum that directly creates a law, the House of Commons would still have to enact such a law to leave the EU, right?

My understanding is that the government have said if it's a Leave vote they'll activate the relevant article of the Lisbon Treaty (50 I think). I imagine we wouldn't leave until the end of those negotiations at which point Parliament would just have to repeal the European Communities Act.

[Richard Hakluyt]

A journalist pays tribute to Cameron and Osborne's incompetence in the Remain campaign :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/18/how-did-the-remain-campaign-get-the-british-character-so-wrong/

[Zanza]

Well written Essay on why the EU is like it is...
http://www.economist.com/news/essays/europe

[Zanza]

My understanding is that the government have said if it's a Leave vote they'll activate the relevant article of the Lisbon Treaty (50 I think). I imagine we wouldn't leave until the end of those negotiations at which point Parliament would just have to repeal the European Communities Act.

Activating Article 50 sets a hard time limit on the conclusion of the negotiations. That gives the other side in the negotations, i.e. the other 27 states, a lot of bargaining power. Just procrastinate and wait until the British get under time pressure to get a deal.

[celedhring]

Well written Essay on why the EU is like it is...
http://www.economist.com/news/essays/europe

Very interesting read. Thanks for sharing it. I have always agreed that the whole ever-deepening union (as much as I'd like to see it in the long run) was more an exception dreamed up in the 80s after the fall of communism than the default state of affairs, and this article explains it really well.

[Sheilbh]

Activating Article 50 sets a hard time limit on the conclusion of the negotiations. That gives the other side in the negotations, i.e. the other 27 states, a lot of bargaining power. Just procrastinate and wait until the British get under time pressure to get a deal.

Britain as Greece, hashing out a deal at 4 am

I think everyone would realise that if it were done then it were well it were done quickly. I don't think the markets would like the uncertainty of two years of arsing about which wouldn't just affect the UK. It'd probably be especially worth clarifying given the impact I think Brexit would have on the domestic politics of the countries we're closest too in EU politics: the Dutch, the Swedes etc. Plus we remain a full member for those two years, so if this is the end of the 'ultra-liberal' vision of Europe we've pushed on everyone it'd be best to get us out.

Plus why hold onto that crisis when the EU has so many other potential crises stored up for the next few years, the possible return of 'bad' France for example.

[Sheilbh]

Well written Essay on why the EU is like it is...
http://www.economist.com/news/essays/europe

Very interesting read. Thanks for sharing it. I have always agreed that the whole ever-deepening union (as much as I'd like to see it in the long run) was more an exception dreamed up in the 80s after the fall of communism than the default state of affairs, and this article explains it really well.

Agreed. It is worth noting that that's also the point British Euroscepticism really takes off - that's when you get the Maastricht rebels ('the bastards'), cases overruling our constitution causing conservative judges to panic and the sort-of stabbed in the back myth of Maggie betrayed as she was turning against Europe.

As I say as someone who was very pro-European it's impossible to look at the Eurozone and the migration crisis and think that Europe's the answer anymore which is sad.

[Zanza]

Activating Article 50 sets a hard time limit on the conclusion of the negotiations. That gives the other side in the negotations, i.e. the other 27 states, a lot of bargaining power. Just procrastinate and wait until the British get under time pressure to get a deal.

Britain as Greece, hashing out a deal at 4 am

I think everyone would realise that if it were done then it were well it were done quickly. I don't think the markets would like the uncertainty of two years of arsing about which wouldn't just affect the UK. It'd probably be especially worth clarifying given the impact I think Brexit would have on the domestic politics of the countries we're closest too in EU politics: the Dutch, the Swedes etc. Plus we remain a full member for those two years, so if this is the end of the 'ultra-liberal' vision of Europe we've pushed on everyone it'd be best to get us out.

Plus why hold onto that crisis when the EU has so many other potential crises stored up for the next few years, the possible return of 'bad' France for example.

Wishful thinking. When has a negotiation in the EU ever be concluded faster than necessary? Hollande and Merkel will both have to take care of their domestic elections next year. Negotiating with a club member that wants to leave will not be high on their agenda.

[Tamas]

As I say as someone who was very pro-European it's impossible to look at the Eurozone and the migration crisis and think that Europe's the answer anymore which is sad.

But surely, nation states going about trying to solve the migration crisis on their own is a far worse option than whatever half-assed ugly solution the EU comes up with?

Sheilbh, lets just admit it: if there was a Labour government in place now with a solid majority, you would be voting Leave.


And Zanza has a good point. The amount of wishful thinking regarding the goodwill and efficiency of EU members when it comes to easing the exit of the UK is staggering, especially from someone who otherwise argue that the EU is inept and selfish to such degree that the UK must leave.

[Sheilbh]

Wishful thinking. When has a negotiation in the EU ever be concluded faster than necessary? Hollande and Merkel will both have to take care of their domestic elections next year. Negotiating with a club member that wants to leave will not be high on their agenda.

True. Hopefully they have enough sense to do the negotiations before the Dutch general election returns a populist Eurosceptic majority (which won't form a government) and before Le Pen drags French politics even further down that route. It's in everyone's interests to do this quickly and it should be relatively simple - unlike the migration or the Eurozone crises.

I've said it many times but genuinely for the EU British Euroscepticism and populism is nothing compared to the polls in core European countries. Our negotiations would be a walk in a park compared to a Gaullist President trying to capture the FN vote. I don't think any of us are old enough to even remember the French when they were 'bad' Europeans.

But surely, nation states going about trying to solve the migration crisis on their own is a far worse option than whatever half-assed ugly solution the EU comes up with?

Yeah. Which is my point. The EU is faced with a humanitarian catastrophe and a moral crisis which it is incapable of solving and its solution is, in fact, a disgrace:
http://www.msf.org/en/article/20160617-eu-states%E2%80%99-dangerous-approach-migration-places-asylum-jeopardy-worldwide

Sheilbh, lets just admit it: if there was a Labour government in place now with a solid majority, you would be voting Leave.

The union still matters. I'd be very unlikely to vote Leave if I thought it meant Scotland would go. Otherwise absolutely, I'd be campaigning.

[Zanza]

True. Hopefully they have enough sense to do the negotiations before the Dutch general election returns a populist Eurosceptic majority (which won't form a government) and before Le Pen drags French politics even further down that route. It's in everyone's interests to do this quickly and it should be relatively simple - unlike the migration or the Eurozone crises.

Why would it be in everybody's interest? You want a new status with regards to the EU, so basically all the effort will be for the British to define such a new status and then convince the other governments of Europe of this new status. Nobody will support you in that either, especially with Eurosceptics at the gates in domestic elections.

Yeah. Which is my point. The EU is faced with a humanitarian catastrophe and a moral crisis which it is incapable of solving and its solution is, in fact, a disgrace:
http://www.msf.org/en/article/20160617-eu-states%E2%80%99-dangerous-approach-migration-places-asylum-jeopardy-worldwide

Did Britain contribute anything to a solution? I can't remember. If your contribution towards solving a humanitarian crisis is to leave the one entity that at least tried to find a solution, then I guess that shows true moral greatness. Your country seems to fit perfectly into a club that only tries to keep refugees away.

[Sheilbh]

Why would it be in everybody's interest? You want a new status with regards to the EU, so basically all the effort will be for the British to define such a new status and then convince the other governments of Europe of this new status. Nobody will support you in that either, especially with Eurosceptics at the gates in domestic elections.

Well I also think it's in most EU countries' interests to have clarity of what the relationship with the UK is going to be at the end of those two years, especially countries we are economically very linked to and especially Ireland. Whether Europe chooses to go for the French punishment beatings approach or a more constructive one I think there'll be a need for some sort of resolution. I don't think this is a difficult issue in Juncker's 'polycrisis' that the EU is going through. And as I say the UK is still a full member until then.

I'm not saying that we'll get some sort of great deal - I think it will be Norway in full or a very long protracted negotiation, probably from the outside. But I don't see it being put on the backburner.

As I say the market pressure will matter because it won't just affect the UK and that's the one thing that causes EU deals late at night

Did Britain contribute anything to a solution? I can't remember. If your contribution towards solving a humanitarian crisis is to leave the one entity that at least tried to find a solution, then I guess that shows true moral greatness. Your country seems to fit perfectly into a club that only tries to keep refugees away.

Not really. Took a couple of thousand of refugees from the refugee camps in the region. Our response has been woeful. Cameron's even been outflanked from the left by the Mail over taking 3000 Syrian children.

I've said before that I think Merkel's the only leaders of any worth on this issue even if I disagree with some of her policies on it. It's easy to criticise but she's the only one who's shown any moral courage.

And it is something I've helped campaign and get money for in my area.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally saw a fascinating stat that in the polls so far of the top 30 pro-remain councils only 3 are not in either London or Scotland: Oxford, Cambridge and Brighton.

Edit: Also seen that Goldman Sachs are apparently internally predicting Leave and considering Warsaw as new European base. Which is going to be a thing on Thursday. Exit polls are expensive so none of the media have actually bought one. Several hedge funds have, so the first hints of the result will probably be in the currency markets

[Zanza]

Just read an article that the German government does not have a clear strategy for a Brexit. Some ministers would like to deepen integration of the Eurozone as a counter-signal, some ministers would like stress national sovereignity to prevent other countries from exiting as well. There are some who are open to an association agreement similar to Norway, others are vehemently against cherry-picking. Some want a pause to reflect on what happened, others want immediate action.

[Sheilbh]

So, Orban has taken out a full page ad in the Mail for remain. The response is roughly what you'd expect