Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

one recession is not that big a deal after all.

Builds character.

[garbon]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/15/michael-gove-father-company-eu-policies-fish-processing-aberdeen

Michael Gove's father denies his company was destroyed by EU policies
Ernest Gove says he sold fish processing firm in Aberdeen voluntarily, contradicting son's claims

[Richard Hakluyt]

one recession is not that big a deal after all.

Builds character.

A recession would also be a great way of reducing immigration 

You usually get some decent popular music out of a recession as well.

[Sheilbh]

I toyed with the idea of voting leave a few months back. Two things stopped me. (1) The EU is in trouble and I'm enough of a European to not bugger off when things get tough. (2) The younger the voter the higher the remain vote.............they feel more European than their elders.....why set that process of Europeanisation back? I still think it is a piss-poor organisation and that we could do far better, but it is our piss-poor organisation so lets get it reformed and improved.

Broadly agree. But I wonder how much of that is down to anti-Europeanism being associated with Toryism and synonymous with racism in some circles. I very much doubt we've bred a generation of Europhiles. And I worry about whether it is remotely capable of reform. As I say for me the Eurozone crisis and the migration crisis have more or less wiped out my Europhilia.

But I'll vote to remain because I think it's the English wing of the Scottish independence referendum. On this, at least, I'm a unionist.

And I have to say as someone who is more emotionally inclined to Leave the campaign has hardened my support for Remain.

Edit:

The financial arguments are of little interest imo; I'm confident that the UK could go it alone and make a success of it, one recession is not that big a deal after all.

Yeah. The one that annoys me is the argument that we don't know what would happen afterwards - of course we don't. This isn't an election when we choose a government with a manifesto of what they want to do. It's a yes-or-no question on an issue and once the people, the bastards, have spoken it's up to our MPs to pick up the pieces. Same with Scottish independence.

Incidentally I do feel Remain need to get better at politics. Yesterday they clear the decks for Labour to start campaigning properly, only for the Labour right to spend the entire day slagging off the PM's deal and moaning about immigration. Today Osborne announces that due to a likely recession he'll have to make £30billion more cuts and tax rises only for Labour to say they'll vote against them and to be joined by 60 Tory Eurosceptics

Edit: They should draft in Mandy

[garbon]

From that article, to be fair, health and safety has gone too far in this country.

[Sheilbh]

What makes you say that? I'm curious if you've had some awful experience

[The Minsky Moment]

The financial arguments are of little interest imo; I'm confident that the UK could go it alone and make a success of it, one recession is not that big a deal after all.

a loss of 2-3% GDP (if that is really what happens)  is a big deal.  That's more than a year's worth of growth gone forever, it's a permanent loss of wealth that doesn't come back and impacts the subsequent growth path. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

The financial arguments are of little interest imo; I'm confident that the UK could go it alone and make a success of it, one recession is not that big a deal after all.

a loss of 2-3% GDP (if that is really what happens)  is a big deal.  That's more than a year's worth of growth gone forever, it's a permanent loss of wealth that doesn't come back and impacts the subsequent growth path.

It is not that big a deal compared to losing your country's independence (assuming that the exit guys are being honest about their motivations).

[Zanza]

When you (Richard Hakluyt, Sheilbh) write that the EU must be reformed, what do you have in mind as potential changes?

[Sheilbh]

Obviously usual health warnings, but Mori's got a ten point move to Leave from their last poll.

[mongers]

Obviously usual health warnings, but Mori's got a ten point move to Leave from their last poll.

This time is way too interesting.

[celedhring]

Cameron has gone to campaign in Gibraltar (I'm not sure why, since that place is overwhelmingly Remain) and our government has thrown a hissy fit about it. Dat European collaboration 

(We are in the middle of a campaign ourselves, and our conservatives are known to play the Gibraltar card whenever they need some smokescreen. And boy, do they need it...).

[Richard Hakluyt]

When you (Richard Hakluyt, Sheilbh) write that the EU must be reformed, what do you have in mind as potential changes?

As the old joke has it I wouldn't start from here.

The democratic deficit is the cause of many of the problems in my opinion, it has also led to errors which have threatened the entire project. So I would like to see more powers taken away from the Commission and given to the Parliament. There is an element of double or quit to this of course.

[Tamas]

Yeah but presently the European Parlaiment is just the dumping ground of politicians who need to leave the scene in their home countries for whatever reason. Maybe this would change if they had actual power to make changes and steal money and stuff.

[jimmy olsen]

Hasn't their reliance on Russian gas crated due to the rise in Green energy? I'm sure I posted an article on that in the Clean energy thread.

In 2015, Gazprom Export supplied 158.56 billion cubic meters of gas to European countries. Western European countries accounted for approximately 82% of the company's exports from Russia, while Central European states took 18%.

http://www.gazpromexport.ru/en/statistics/

So, yes?  I assume Germany is counted as a Central European state.

Also, I did post it.
http://cleantechnica.com/2016/05/16/renewable-electricity-replaces-natural-gas-europe/

Renewable electricity is up by more than a third within the EU from 2010 to 2015, having risen by 244 TWh. In return, the coal power has remained relatively stable since 2010 at 300 TWh (lignite) and 500 TWh (hard coal). But electricity from natural gas is down by 283 TWh in those years.