Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Fair to say the Mail's turned - the Telegraph (which used to employ Johnson) has also published an editorial calling for him to resign:

[Josquius]

As Ayesha Hazarika pointed out it's pretty extraordinary to be in this state just two years after winning an eighty seat majority and your party's best result in more than 30 years

Almost as if Johnson is a deeply despicable and incompetent person, and the last election was lost by Corbyn and not won by Johnson.

Corbyn was nice but shit at politics.
Johnson is an absolute shit but good at politics.

Corbyn was a dumb idiot who fraternised with every enemy of the UK without a moment of pause or reflection. Just because he was more pro-state ownership than the Tories doesn't make him nice.

Dumb for sure. But from I've heard he does seem to be a decent guy. His dodgy associations often come from this base decentness - wanting to give everyone a fair hearing and seeing that even the worst of shit bags usually has some underlying justification worth looking at.
Its ironic in a way as the image that was build up about him amongst idiots was completely the opposite, painting him as an evil dictator in the waiting... When he was rather more an indecisive quibbler on important issues with zero filter for showing up to events with iffy groups in attendance.

[Sheilbh]

But at a certain point if you keep wanting to give a fair hearing to the same type of people it's fair to ask if you're with them because of that or because you agree with them. And as I say crucially other politicians on the left, in the anti-war movement or the Palestine solidarity campaigners refuse to do events or associate with the sort of people Corbyn does because of their views.

I don't think anyone would have the same tolerance or make excuses for a Tory leader who'd spent decades as an MP doing events with pro-apartheid Boers, radical settler groups, Serbian nationalists, Loyalist paramilitaries and Latin American leaders like Boric and Bolsonaro. We'd call them out - rightly.

And I think you can call Corbyn many things - but he's had a 40 year career as an MP making the same arguments on the same issues as he did in 1983 in 2020. The idea that he's an indecisive quibbler I think does incredible disrespect to him. Whatever else you think of him, he's clearly got a strong set of ideological beliefs.

[Admiral Yi]

What's Bataclan?

[The Larch]

What's Bataclan?

A concert hall in Paris that was attacked by ISIS terrorists in November 2015.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/November_2015_Paris_attacks

[Admiral Yi]

grazie

[Josquius]

But at a certain point if you keep wanting to give a fair hearing to the same type of people it's fair to ask if you're with them because of that or because you agree with them. And as I say crucially other politicians on the left, in the anti-war movement or the Palestine solidarity campaigners refuse to do events or associate with the sort of people Corbyn does because of their views.

I don't think anyone would have the same tolerance or make excuses for a Tory leader who'd spent decades as an MP doing events with pro-apartheid Boers, radical settler groups, Serbian nationalists, Loyalist paramilitaries and Latin American leaders like Boric and Bolsonaro. We'd call them out - rightly.

And I think you can call Corbyn many things - but he's had a 40 year career as an MP making the same arguments on the same issues as he did in 1983 in 2020. The idea that he's an indecisive quibbler I think does incredible disrespect to him. Whatever else you think of him, he's clearly got a strong set of ideological beliefs.

The comparison is a bit different however. The IRA are scum for sure. But the idea of a united Ireland is a perfectly valid one and the British government historically really did treat catholics like shit.
Boer nationalists on the other hand want to indulge in ethnic cleansing and borderline slavery to carve out an etno state. Not cool.
The dodginess of Corbyn is in associating with the wrong groups wanting otherwise positive things. Not any core belief that terrorism for terrorisms sake is good.
This is where the zero filter part comes in. He doesn't really consider the big picture and the optics of sharing a stage with the worst groups wanting something and how this could actually be detrimental to the causes he claims to support.

As a protest MP he is perfectly decisive and clear on his beliefs. As leader his indecision came out. He largely did a great job in representing the democratic views of the party rather than pushing his own views.... But in refusing to recognise that brexit was an issue after the referendum and his poor (and way too honest) showing pre referendum... He really fucked the country.

On Corbyn I have to fall solidly into the middle. Hated by both the Corbynistas who think he is the best thing ever and those who think he is a poorly dressed devil.

[Tamas]

Bank of England knows how to fight inflation: stop raising salaries, peons!

I know he is technically not wrong, if people just stopped spending inflation would come down. But still.. especially rich coming from a dude earning half a million a year.

Bank of England: We need to see restraint on pay rises
The Bank of England is calling on workers and bosses to show 'restraint' on wage rises, even as the country faces its toughest squeeze in decades.

Speaking to the Today Programme, governor Andrew Bailey says the Bank wants to see "quite clear restraint" in the bargaining process.

Bailey, who is paid around half a million pounds a year, insists that the UK is not experiencing a wage-price spiral, but pressures are building.

A day after the Bank raised interest rates to 0.5%, and warned that inflation will hit 7.25% in April, Bailey said controlling wage increases is key to keeping a grip on inflation.

We are looking to see quite clear restraint in the bargaining process. Otherwise it will get out of control.

It's not at the moment but it will do."

I'm not saying don't give your staff a pay rise, Bailey insists, adding that the Bank's concern is the size of those increases.

Q: But won't wage restraint prevent companies from hiring workers, at a time when many are struggling to fill positions?

Bailey says he wants to see wage restraint across the economy.

I'm not saying nobody gets a pay rise, don't get me wrong. But what I am saying it, we do need to see restraint in pay bargaining, otherwise it will get out of control.

Yesterday, the Bank of England warned that UK households face the worst squeeze on their disposable incomes for at least 30 years, with real post-tax labour income expected to shrink by 2% this year.

With inflation soaring, taxes increasing in April, economic growth slowing and unemployment rising, the economic outlook is darkening.... with Thursday's rise in UK interest rates adding to pressure on borrowers.

[Sheilbh]

The comparison is a bit different however. The IRA are scum for sure. But the idea of a united Ireland is a perfectly valid one and the British government historically really did treat catholics like shit.

The comparison for the IRA is Loyallist paramilitaries. It's a Tory MP spending lots of time with the UVF and the UDA and declaring "no surrender". It wouldn't be acceptable and I can't think of an example.

Boer nationalists on the other hand want to indulge in ethnic cleansing and borderline slavery to carve out an etno state. Not cool.

The reason I mention the pro-apartheid Boers is that Corbyn was a strong anti-apartheid campaigner. Everyone in the Labour party and the labour movement were strongly anti-apartheid. The difference is Labour and the unions allied with the ANC and Mandela, Corbyn tended to go to events of other more radical groups (the ones singing "one settler, one bullet"). When Mandela was freed and at the point he was giving an address to the Labour Party Conference - he refused to meet with the anti-apartheid campaigners Corbyn worked with/was allied with.

The dodginess of Corbyn is in associating with the wrong groups wanting otherwise positive things. Not any core belief that terrorism for terrorisms sake is good.
This is where the zero filter part comes in. He doesn't really consider the big picture and the optics of sharing a stage with the worst groups wanting something and how this could actually be detrimental to the causes he claims to support.

I think there's a fair degree of consistency. The politics aren't different from any other Labour MP. In the 80s Labour's official position was that there should be a united Ireland - and it become John Hume and its sister party the SDLP in support of peaceful politics for a united Ireland. Similar all of Labour was against apartheid and backed the ANC - there is a reason Mandela gave a speech to the Labour Party Conference.

In every case Corbyn supports a more radical and normally more violent group. I don't know if he thinks terrorism is a good thing (I think he probably does think "whatever means necessary" is fair in struggles against imperialism) - but I think he's the classic English radical getting a vicarious kick out of aliging with the hardliners and men of vioence in a struggle and backing them to the last drop of someone else's blood.

On Corbyn I have to fall solidly into the middle. Hated by both the Corbynistas who think he is the best thing ever and those who think he is a poorly dressed devil.

I don't think he's a devil. I just don't think he was morally fit to be leader of the Labour Party far less PM.

I know he is technically not wrong, if people just stopped spending inflation would come down. But still.. especially rich coming from a dude earning half a million a year.

Yeah - that's the thing I find slighty crazy though. Is that really the best that orthodox economics can come up with? I'm not saying I'm into Erdogonomics yet - but I sympathise.

[Tamas]

I suspect they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the US with the stock market, in the UK with property prices. If they go hardcore anti-inflation they strike at the illusion keeping the economy growing and going and may trigger a recession. If they don't, inflation may run away and trigger a recession. 

[Josquius]

News to make me happy /enrage Tamas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/04/uk-road-pricing-transport-committee-mps-electric-shift

[Sheilbh]

I suspect they are stuck between a rock and a hard place. In the US with the stock market, in the UK with property prices. If they go hardcore anti-inflation they strike at the illusion keeping the economy growing and going and may trigger a recession. If they don't, inflation may run away and trigger a recession.

The issue is - isn't that just orthodox economics though? Basically if you get inflation you raise interest rates and that probably triggers a recession. But I find the whole fact that so much of our economic policy is built on the idea of expectations and messaging slightly crazy There is no agreed interpretation of why inflation was basically so low from the 1990s to the crisis - central bankers prefer the one that valorises their expert expectations management and credibility, others point to globalisation and a huge expansion in the global workforce available to western companies which kept a lid on inflation (I tend to be team structural changes - but that could be wrong).

I'm still broadly in the transitory camp about current inflation - I think there's huge pent-up demand as globally economies are coming out of restrictions, I think there's been a few global supply shocks etc. I think the BofE is broadly there too - basically they think inflation will peak at 7% in spring but be down to 3% by the end of the year, which is why they're saying the quiet bit out loud about not pushing wages higher because that will lock in higher inflation. But given that I'm not sure if it justifies much tightening.

It seems really difficult though because that could be totally wrong and actually what I think are transitory, post-covid shocks are part of a new post-covid shift. I am glad it is far above my pay grade

News to make me happy /enrage Tamas

Yeah it's essential - we will need to replace the revenue from fuel duty somehow and this seems the best way to do it.

Interesting that it's cross party backbenchers and being backed by think tanks on the right and left - it seems like everyone basically agrees with the principle.

[HVC]

News to make me happy /enrage Tamas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/04/uk-road-pricing-transport-committee-mps-electric-shift

So what your saying is that drivers contribute some 30 odd billion to the treasury.  You should say thank you

[Sheilbh]

This isn't the only example (there was an outrageously lax sentence in a relatively prominent rape case in London recently)and this is probably my most derangedly right-wing opinion but I really think our sentencing guidelines need a refresh. I think if you're convicted of exploiting a victim of modern slavery for forty years you should probably get more than eighteen month suspended sentence

UK man given suspended prison sentence for exploiting victim of slavery
Victim, 'used and exploited' for 40 years, was found living in a squalid shed north of Carlisle
Jessica Murray
Fri 4 Feb 2022 12.47 GMT

A man who exploited a modern slavery victim found living in a squalid shed has been given a suspended prison sentence.

Peter Swailes Jr, 56, was sentenced to a nine-month jail term, suspended for 18 months, at Carlisle crown court on Friday.

The victim, who has learning difficulties, had been "used and exploited" for 40 years by the defendant's father, Peter Swailes Sr, the court heard.

Over the course of his exploitation he was forced to live in a horsebox, a disused caravan and more recently in a shed on a residential site north of Carlisle.

Swailes Jr pleaded guilty last month to conspiracy to arrange or facilitate the travel of another with a view to exploitation on the basis that he was unaware of the victim's living conditions.

Peter Swailes Sr, 80, who died last year while awaiting trial, had denied the same offence.

Swailes Jr initially denied the charge, but later pleaded guilty on the agreed basis of his "limited" involvement with the victim.

The charges followed a three-year investigation by the Gangmasters and Labour Abuse Authority, supported by Cumbria police and the National Crime Agency, after a man was found living in a 2-metre (6ft) shed with a soiled duvet on the floor.

The victim, who was 58 years old when he was rescued, received specialist help and now lives in supported accommodation outside Cumbria.

The judge accepted Swailes was not responsible for the victim's living conditions, which included spending the last five years living in a shed without lighting or heating, the court heard.

From what I've read for the victims entire adult life he's been exploited by this family - doing work like painting, slating or tacmacing for £10 a day and being made to live in sheds, horseboxes etc. Where he was found and living currently had one window which couldn't be closed - it had no toilet, sink or light. From what the police it was a harrowing case to work on - again this man's been exploited basically since he was in his early twenties.

I'm not fully hang 'em and flog 'em but it feels like something's not quite working if this is the correct sentence for a crime like this - I hope the AG appeals the sentence.

[garbon]

News to make me happy /enrage Tamas

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/feb/04/uk-road-pricing-transport-committee-mps-electric-shift

So what your saying is that drivers contribute some 30 odd billion to the treasury.  You should say thank you