Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

This thread from Pulp Librarian is for you.

https://twitter.com/PulpLibrarian/status/1491501383564017666

Literally not a single miss in that entire thread.

[Josquius]

I couldn't finish it. I tried but I just couldn't. My eyes. It hurt. Oh so much.

[Sheilbh]

Still really struck by the contrast of the broad consensus on Ukraine here v the situation we'd be in (a shitshow) if Corbyn was still leading Labour. There'd be a huge internal fight in Labour but I think it's pretty clear the leadership would be going for a "NATO - hands off Ukraine!" line - and first Labour leader to visit NATO in 12 years seems a little sub-optimal:

UK prepares 1,000 troops in case of refugee crisis if Ukraine invaded
Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer to separately visit Nato headquarters amid whirlwind diplomacy in face of Russian threats
Dan Sabbagh
Wed 9 Feb 2022 22.30 GMT

Britain has placed 1,000 troops on standby to deploy to eastern Europe if there is a refugee crisis prompted by any Russian invasion of Ukraine, ahead of a trip by Boris Johnson to Nato headquarters and Poland on Thursday.

UK officials warned there was a risk of "a humanitarian disaster" if Russia were to invade. The US has warned there could be a massive displacement of 1-5 million people, with refugees most likely to enter Poland.

"The UK remains unwavering in our commitment to European security," the prime minister said on the eve of a trip that will see him visit Nato in Brussels on Thursday morning before heading to Warsaw.

Concerns that any Russian invasion would prompt a significant refugee crisis have been increasingly preoccupying western leaders, as Moscow masses about 135,000 troops on the borders of Ukraine and in neighbouring Belarus.

Britain agreed to send 100 engineers to Poland to help secure its eastern border in December and, earlier this week, said it would start sending a further 350 Royal Marines as a show of solidarity as up to 30,000 Russian forces conduct joint exercises with Belarus.

The UK has also offered to deploy a Type 45 destroyer, deploy HMS Trent in the eastern Mediterranean, send RAF jets to southern Europe, and double the 900 troops based in Estonia as part of an existing Nato battlegroup.

The offer will be discussed between Johnson and Nato's secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, as part of wider plans by the military alliance to send more forces into eastern Europe. The US said it would send 3,000 troops into Poland and Romania, while France has said it would be willing to send forces to the latter too.

A few hours later Keir Starmer will also visit Nato headquarters, the first Labour leader to do so since 2010. Labour said he would send a "firm and united" message to allies – and to the Kremlin – in support of the UK government's policy on Ukraine.

Starmer is expected to emphasise that Labour was instrumental in the founding of Nato after the second world war – and endorse the increased troop deployment in member states across eastern Europe, intended to provide greater security to countries from the Baltic states to the Balkans.

Johnson will then meet Poland's prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, and president, Andrzej Duda, in Warsaw as part of a wider burst of British diplomatic activity. The UK foreign secretary, Liz Truss, is due in Moscow on Thursday and will be followed by the defence secretary, Ben Wallace, on Friday.

Johnson has been criticised for being relatively inactive during the crisis, as he battles a domestic crisis over parties at No 10. Meanwhile the French president, Emmanuel Macron, visited Moscow on Tuesday to negotiate directly with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, although he failed to achieve a breakthrough.

"As an alliance we must draw lines in the snow and be clear there are principles upon which we will not compromise," Johnson said. "That includes the security of every Nato ally and the right of every European democracy to aspire to Nato membership."

There does seem to be a lot of coordinated diplomacy by the UK - and including the opposition which is good. When Starmer was being mobbed he was actually walking back from the MoD following a briefing by the government on the situation in Ukraine for him and Starmer - again as it should be.

Obviously if there is an attack and refugee crisis the first priority has to be helping Poland and other frontline allies, but we should also look to a big refugee offer ourselves.

[Jacob]

Denmark too is putting troops in immediate readiness for deployment - most likely to the Baltics or Poland - if the situation requires it.

Still... when I read about the numbers... 1000 soldiers here, doubling the 900, and similar... and then compare it to the Russian 135,000 troops deployed it does seem a little piddling.

Though, of course, the NATO troops are not going to war with Russia but are around to handle the repercussions if those 135,000 Russian troops attack Ukraine. But still...

Does anyone here have a good sense of what Ukraine's military looks like in terms of numbers and capabilities?

[Sheilbh]

I absolutely agree - I suppose it's part of the wider NATO deployment and these aren't defensive positions in the way that the NATO deployments in Germany during the Cold War were. I think it's now an open question to me if actually that's the sort of deployment we should be offering the Baltics and Poland if they want it. The British Army is no way set up for that (and is hugely cutting back tank numbers which have been on a continualy downward trend since 1990) - but I'd support raising the budget to form an Army of the Baltic like the old Army of the Rhine if there was support for that from the Baltics or Poland.

Domestically we're spending over 2% but there's always choices and for a very long time the UK choices in terms of the army has been to salami cut it and focus more and more on special ops. From what I understand they are good at that but we are reaching the point where we have a decent range of very specialist troops and barely any general army. I think it is still right that we're tilting more to the navy than the army (there's been a period of army dominance for a while and now it's gone the other way).

But I think Labour have called for planned cuts to the army to be cancelled and I think that's the right decision.

I suppose the flipside on Ukraine itself is that the UK has trained 22k Ukrainian troops since 2014 - and I think some other NATO members have also been running missions like that which hopefully will help.

[Josquius]

I expect Poland and the baltics would bite natos hand off if offered a cold War Germany style setup.
Massively strengthens their defensive position and such deployments are a big economic boost for the area the bases are in.
I guess it depends what happens in Ukraine whether it happens though. We aren't quite at full cold War footing at the moment. If Russia storms through Ukraine however....

[Sheilbh]

I expect Poland and the baltics would bite natos hand off if offered a cold War Germany style setup.
Massively strengthens their defensive position and such deployments are a big economic boost for the area the bases are in.
I guess it depends what happens in Ukraine whether it happens though. We aren't quite at full cold War footing at the moment. If Russia storms through Ukraine however....

I agree. I think we probably need to spend more on the army generally because I think it's clear that risks are increasing in eastern Europe. But I'd only think there'd be any need for that big cold war style deployment if Russia has attacked Ukraine.

I think the NATO protection is still really important and I wouldn't ever expect a Russian attack on the Baltics or Poland - but I'm not sat in Riga or Warsaw. If they want/feel they need  a strong NATO presence then I think we should absolutely be spending what we need to commit to and support that - especially because I do think that over the next decade the US is going to be more or less totally focused on competition with China in the Pacific.

The Truss-Lavrov meeting's gone about as well as expected - and we now have the customary hostile press conference Ben Wallace and the chief of the defence staff are in Moscow tomorrow and I think the Wallace-Shoigu and soldier to soldier meetings could be more interesting/fruitful.

[Sheilbh]

Transformation into what, though?

Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
Met chief Cressida Dick asked if she will go after series of failings in her force.

She tells @BBCRadioLondon: "I have absolutely no intention of going and I believe that I am and actually have been for the last 5 years leading a real transformation in the Met."

[Tamas]

Transformation into what, though?

Pippa Crerar
@PippaCrerar
Met chief Cressida Dick asked if she will go after series of failings in her force.

She tells @BBCRadioLondon: "I have absolutely no intention of going and I believe that I am and actually have been for the last 5 years leading a real transformation in the Met."

Yeah I don't think people would disagree with her on that one.

[The Brain]

Jesus Christ. What was the Met like five years ago?

[Josquius]

Jesus Christ. What was the Met like five years ago?

A police force.

[garbon]

Jesus Christ. What was the Met like five years ago?

It was 2017 when the jokes about rape where happening at the Charing Cross police station.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-60215575

The inquiry was launched in March 2018 into nine linked independent investigations concerning serving police officers from the Met.

Investigations began after an officer allegedly had sex with a vulnerable woman in a room inside a London police station, the IOPC said - although this allegation was never proven.

...

The inquiry found evidence of messages exchanged between officers that were often highly sexualise, violent and discriminatory, and which were defended as "banter" by police officers.

The IOPC said the messages included:

Messages about police officers attending a festival dressed as known sex offenders - sent within a WhatsApp group containing 17 police officers
Numerous messages about rape within WhatsApp and Facebook chat groups
Homophobic comments
Use of words that could be considered misogynist, racist, or constituting disability discrimination

[Sheilbh]

Jesus Christ. What was the Met like five years ago?

A police force.

Let's not overstate things.

[Sheilbh]

At fucking last!

Laura Kuenssberg
@bbclaurak
Met Commissioner expected to be leaving her job - announcement shortly

I read yesterday that Sadiq said in an interview that he was very concerned and putting her "on notice" over the catalogue of failures, apparently the Home Office basically agreed. So it looks like the pressure's come (and you can't help but feel there's something new and bad about to come out which means she's jumping now).

Of course it is a bit embarrassing given that Khan and Patel jointly made the decision to renew her contract just about six months ago. Lucky there was no evidence of institutional failings then.

Edit: Apparently reports are that Khan asked her to leave.

[garbon]

Bye!