Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

Trusting perfidious Albion to guard our borders was clearly a mistake. We should build a land border across Ireland and be done with this shit. The security argument (in Ireland) seems overstated as the IRA will understand that the English nationalists are to blame.

[Tamas]

The UK will react in a "robust" manner if the EU launched retaliatory trade wars in the event of Brexit talks in relation to Northern Ireland break down, the government has warned.

Outlining fresh detail on the timeline for talks at a fringe meeting, Brexit minister Lord Frost said he expected the EU to issue its formal response to the UK's demand for renegotiation of the Northern Ireland protocol within the next 10 days.

He would then engage in an "intensive" manner for "short period" before deciding whether to trigger article 16, the mechanism to suspend parts of the protocol and enter a formal dispute with the EU. He said:

On the talks question we must do it as quick as possible. We're already to go, the team is ready to go to Brussels.

We need a sort and intensive negotiation and when I say short I mean weeks, three weeks.

It means early November will be crunch-time for Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party which on Monday repeated its threat to quit the Stormont assembly and force a local election if substantial progress on ditching the protocol is not made. Frost said:

I personally believe there comes a decision point probably around early November when we know an agreement can be reached or it cannot and certain consequences flow from that.

Frost also warned that if no agreement could be reached, the UK would be "robust" if the EU retaliated by imposing tariffs or other barriers to trade flow between Great Britain and the EU.

"We don't think retaliation makes any of those things any easier," he said, but if they did launch trade wars, "proportionality is important

This is the same guy who called this a great deal like a year ago.

I am so disgusted by the shameless rogue state approach by the British government that I am utterly uninterested in the finer details. They tried to bully themselves into a keeping the cake they eat deal for years when that failed they lied down to EU sands so they could win an election, and now with that out of the way they resume the bullying for their cake and eating it.

[Sheilbh]

Trusting perfidious Albion to guard our borders was clearly a mistake. We should build a land border across Ireland and be done with this shit. The security argument (in Ireland) seems overstated as the IRA will understand that the English nationalists are to blame.

That won't stop them attacking physical border infrastructure. Ideologically motivated terrorist organistions don't rationally weigh up responsibilities and proceed accordingly. As their belief is a united Irish Republic the border posts will be the symbol of division and will be attacked. I believe the most common non-accidental cause of death for Gardai in the line of duty is violence from Republican paramilitaries - obviously it's far lower than the attacks on the RUC (as it was) or British Army.

This is the first position of the EU - which is still correct:

In view of the unique circumstances on the island of Ireland, the European Council stressed the need to support the Good Friday Agreement and the peace process in Northern Ireland.

    "Flexible and imaginative solutions will be required, including with the aim of avoiding a hard border, while respecting the integrity of the Union legal order."

But it does mean it needs support from both communities - and the British government is not the same as the unionist community. The position of the Irish government and nationalists is more or less totally aligned on this issue - and of course they'd be the ones getting shafted by a land border.

I am so disgusted by the shameless rogue state approach by the British government that I am utterly uninterested in the finer details. They tried to bully themselves into a keeping the cake they eat deal for years when that failed they lied down to EU sands so they could win an election, and now with that out of the way they resume the bullying for their cake and eating it.

I think the peace process and the situation in Northern Ireland is what matters - and the British government is the finer details. I don't care about that - or frankly the risk of a Northern Irish entrepot - when we're talking about people's lives.

And Northern Ireland, as I've said before, is politically more like the West Balkans or Lebanon. The politics aren't necessarily rational or even about material things - it's about identity and feeling. In my view it needs to be solved and should always have been solved (perhaps separately from the main negotiations) from Northern Ireland out, not Brussels and London in.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally this video - and there is a longer version (about 5 minutes) is really upsetting:
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1445065577677066241?s=20

I don't know why because there's no signs or evidence for it. But something about Labour starting to look like they care/want to win and the Tories looking very comfortable and complacent but with a lot of chickens waiting to come home makes me feel the mood in the country may be about to shift. No basis for that whatsoever - and I've been wrong so many times before. But there's just been a few things I've seen or read or thought that just feel like the mood is shifting.

[Zanza]

Yeah well, who gives a fuck? There are 447 million people in the EU tired of Northern Irish asshattery and the Johnson regime's latest shenanigans. Whatever the consequences, the British government is to blame. They should sort it out if the situation in their province deteriorates. Should not be our business.

[Sheilbh]

Of course the flipside to that is Northern Ireland's a province with 1.9 million people and about the size of Montenegro. It might not present the greatest threat to the integrity of the single market.

I've said before I think it's fine for the EU to say we only care about the single market and don't care about the GFA/BA - so there needs to be a land border; or we only care about the single market and stopping a hard border - so there needs to be a sea border. But that's not been the EU's position at all at any stage of Brexit.

For the last five years the goal has been to support the peace process - to which Ireland is also a party. But any policy in the context of the GFA/BA will need to be a solution that has the support of both sides of that peace agreement - at the minute the NIP doesn't. And as the rest of Northern Irish politics attests to the peace process normally requires unsatisfactory, unpleasant compromise - there are literally with blood on their hands sat around Stormont as elected officials.

Edit: And I've said before the EU wasn't particularly involved in the peace process and I think underestimated the difficulties and politics of Northern Ireland as a problem to solve - I think the EU has similar issues dealing with countries and parties in the West Balkans. I think, to nick Macron's phrase, it is too rational and struggles in places where politics is not rational and is very communal/identity-driven because that type of politics that drives conflict is what the EU exists to replace. The great success of the EU is supporting a politics where people fight and argue over agricultural quotas not the rights of communities to exist in a space or history. But that's not quite the place Northern Ireland (or Bosnia) are at yet.

[Barrister]

Yeah well, who gives a fuck? There are 447 million people in the EU tired of Northern Irish asshattery and the Johnson regime's latest shenanigans. Whatever the consequences, the British government is to blame. They should sort it out if the situation in their province deteriorates. Should not be our business.

I'm pretty sure the Irish Republic (which is an EU member) cares a great deal about the situation in NI.

As an observer from afar I think it's very much been a mark in the EU's favour that they've consistently gone to bat for an issue (NI) that really only affects one member state, and not a large one at that.  The type of position you suggest would be very easy for the EU to adopt, but only at the cost of completely abandoning the Irish Republic's interests.

[Tamas]

There were several options open for the British government to handle the NI and Brexit situation from staying in the single market to ignoring NI. They decided to solve it by installing an internal border. At least that's what they signed. As it turns out they had no intention of honoring the agreement or to solve the NI issue. They want to bully the EU into solving it for them.

[Sheilbh]

There were several options open for the British government to handle the NI and Brexit situation from staying in the single market to ignoring NI. They decided to solve it by installing an internal border. At least that's what they signed. As it turns out they had no intention of honoring the agreement or to solve the NI issue. They want to bully the EU into solving it for them.

How does it solve the NI issue if one side of the peace process reject it? It's like saying Donald Trump's peace plan solved Israel and Palestine because the Israelis are thrilled.

Edit: And Sam Lowe - who is not exactly a Brexit booster summarised what the range of argument between the UK and EU is about on this:

Sam Lowe
@SamuelMarcLowe
Some confusion over what UK wants for NI.

To simplify: Currently under the Protocol, goods entering NI are treated as if they are entering the EU, unless proven otherwise. UK wants to shift burden of proof and for goods to be treated as remaining in UK, unless proven otherwise.

I feel like there is space between those for a creative solution. My own suggestion would be focus on making things really easy for consumers so unionists don't feel separate  - so maybe the UK option for consumer goods/retailers and the EU option for industry/commercials.

Edit: And to be clear I don't even think you need to re-write the NIP, I think you need to work out how to define goods that are "at risk" of entering the single market because that's when it bites.

[Tamas]

OK but if the pro-government side rejected the agreement why did the government sign it? There is no reading of this situation which doesn't clearly make it the UK government's fault.

[Valmy]

Yeah well, who gives a fuck? There are 447 million people in the EU tired of Northern Irish asshattery and the Johnson regime's latest shenanigans. Whatever the consequences, the British government is to blame. They should sort it out if the situation in their province deteriorates. Should not be our business.

I'm pretty sure the Irish Republic (which is an EU member) cares a great deal about the situation in NI.

As an observer from afar I think it's very much been a mark in the EU's favour that they've consistently gone to bat for an issue (NI) that really only affects one member state, and not a large one at that.  The type of position you suggest would be very easy for the EU to adopt, but only at the cost of completely abandoning the Irish Republic's interests.

Well I don't think the Irish Republic is eager to bend to the demands of the UK either. That is not really their brand.

[Iormlund]

I feel like there is space between those for a creative solution. My own suggestion would be focus on making things really easy for consumers so unionists don't feel separate  - so maybe the UK option for consumer goods/retailers and the EU option for industry/commercials.

No. Absolutely no yielding to Johnson's bullying.

The deal was signed. Now it must be implemented or a wall built.

I find your position puzzling to say the least. If the English won't give a fuck about the GFA, what makes you think someone in Lyon, Patras or Seville will?

This is over.

[HVC]

you signed it, you're stuck with it. i'm assuming there's no back out clause?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yeah well, who gives a fuck? There are 447 million people in the EU tired of Northern Irish asshattery and the Johnson regime's latest shenanigans.

I'm pretty sure most of them don't give a fuck either way. The Brussels bubble =/= the EU citizenry.

[Zanza]

The European Union is not the problematic stakeholder in the ongoing dispute about Northern Ireland. It has clearly communicated its principles, but has shown willingness to compromise on technical details.

The Nationalists seem fairly passive and content with the EU standing in for them.

One problematic faction is the Unionists. They were pro-Brexit and their poorly hidden agenda is to overturn the GFA and reinstate a border. That's not a realistic policy though and they have painted themselves into a corner from which it will be hard to get out again.

That said, the main problem in Northern Ireland is the British government.  Neither EU nor Unionists trust it at all. The British government first threw the Unionists under the bus by signing the NIP, then went rogue on the implementation of the NIP.

The only way out of the impasse is for the British government to build trust with both EU and Unionists again. However, it does the opposite. It is further eroding its credibility as a party interested to be a honest partner in a negotiation. Unless that changes, there will be no mutually agreeable situation in Northern Ireland.