Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

All I want is for Labour to realise that the public does not care about who's up or down on the National Executive Committee - because this is a government that's there for the taking



These are very much fag end of 11 years in power numbers. But it relies on the opposition being plausible enough for the public.

[Zanza]

So far 27 drivers took up the new visa scheme. I hope they can make a difference and all of this is soon forgotten! 

[Tamas]

So far 27 drivers took up the new visa scheme. I hope they can make a difference and all of this is soon forgotten! 

Johnson quickly added 100 to that and waved it around as proof that there is a world wide crisis of no lorry drivers anywhere.

[Sheilbh]

Thought this - especially the bit in bold was interesting:

Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Downing St "infuriated" that only 27 of 300 immediate 3 month tanker-driver visas taken up...now the reason there are fuel shortages. (Fwiw plenty in industry suspected the scheme was set up to show immigration wasn't solution). QED. X2. #brexit

[Josquius]

They'll probably be succesful spinning it that way.
But more logically to me this shows immigration isn't the problem.

[Jacob]

So far 27 drivers took up the new visa scheme. I hope they can make a difference and all of this is soon forgotten! 

Johnson quickly added 100 to that and waved it around as proof that there is a world wide crisis of no lorry drivers anywhere.

Canada is also having shortages (though not as bad as the UK): https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada-truck-driver-shortage-1.6198830

[Zanza]

But as I say unionists are always fundamentalist in their opposition (so are Republicans if you're negotiating with them) - and their national story/identity as a community is tied up with fundamentalist resistance.

Maybe it is time for them to grow up and leave their infantile behavior behind. I don't see why the rest of us should accept their nonsense and continously try to appease them.

[Sheilbh]

I don't think anyone has said immigration is the problem with supply chain issues.

And I think it's pretty likely this will be a transitory problem. It seems very unlikely that things won't adjust and I think people have priced in that leaving the EU will lead to short-term disruption, it's if things don't adjust we'll have problems and people will turn on government.

Although I saw one journalist saying that government/the civil service thinks these issues will be broadly solved in the next few months - but they are very worried about the NHS over the next six months because they think there's a crisis coming of over-stretched NHS, people who've delayed non-emergency treatments starting to actually need those treatments now, flu and covid.

Canada is also having shortages (though not as bad as the UK): https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada-truck-driver-shortage-1.6198830

Yeah - I think gas/energy is not related to Brexit. I think that is genuinely a lack of UK investment in storage, Russia turning off the taps in Europe (because their own shortage is running low for a variety of reasons) and global demand. Plus unusually still autumn, a fire at the connector to France and outages at (ageing) nuclear power plants that'll be de-commissioned in the next few years.

The fuel and general supply chain disruption is global factors and Brexit is a force multiplier because we don't have the buffer of the single market.

Incidentally on the energy stuff another example of British governments dithering for a decade and then reaping the consequences - numerous nuclear power plants are being shut down over the next 5 years, so nuclear will go from producing about 9 GW to just over 2 GW, the replacements won't cover all of that loss and won't come online until 2030. As far as I'm aware there's no clear planning for what happens in between, we turn off coal in 2025 and don't have a lot of gas storage. So I look forward to our rolling blackouts in the mid-2020s

[The Brain]

But as I say unionists are always fundamentalist in their opposition (so are Republicans if you're negotiating with them) - and their national story/identity as a community is tied up with fundamentalist resistance.

Maybe it is time for them to grow up and leave their infantile behavior behind. I don't see why the rest of us should accept their nonsense and continously try to appease them.

I've said it before: the UK's pandering to Balkantard extremists is... less than ideal. It's their province, they should pacify it.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe it is time for them to grow up and leave their infantile behavior behind. I don't see why the rest of us should accept their nonsense and continously try to appease them.

That'd be great - we also probably could have avoided the 30 year long civil conflict as well post-conflict society. But, as in Bosnia, as in Lebanon, as in Israel and Palestine - it's also just reality. The EU chose to engage in Northern Ireland and hopefully over time it will change and people would treat a technical trade issue as just that, but if there's any policy affecting Northern Ireland I think it should start from reality not what should be or what's rational.

Ths is a province where devolution collapsed for several years because for one party language laws were a pre-condition to work in the Executive and for the other stopping them was a pre-condition for working in the Executive. It's infuriating and it holds Northern Ireland back, but change is going to come from Northern Ireland and I think one of the sadder things of the NIP debate is that it seems to have re-activated "soft" identities - there are some early signs that soft nationalists and unionists, people who identify as Northern Irish rather than Irish or British, are moving from voting for a non-sectarian back into the nationalist/unionist divide.

Ultimatley, I suppose, history and political culture really matter and can really weigh on the present.

On appeasement - I think this is an issue with the peace process more widely. It is better than the alternative which was violence. But in both communities the moderate parties have declined and the extreme parties have prospered. I think if you  have to power-share as two communities then there's a structural incentive to support the most radical party. I think there's been studies about the same effect in other post-conflict societies where the international community has imposed power-sharing to ensure one doesn't "win" over the other. But I don't know what realistic alternative there is that doesn't end in violence. But ultimately I think this type of politics comes from the fact that people were literally murdering each other just 15 years ago, not from any external appeasement. Any change to this type of politics will come from within Northern Ireland (such as the rise of the Alliance Party) and all the rest of the world can do is provide space for that to happen - unless one side were to win/dominate I suppose.

[Iormlund]

On appeasement - I think this is an issue with the peace process more widely. It is better than the alternative which was violence.

The single market is worth more than the life of any Brit.

It's what keeps Europe prosperous and peaceful.

[Sheilbh]

Brit or Irish person

And of course even in Northern Ireland which doesn't have much immigration - but has started to since peace - about 5% of the population have EU settled status.

[Sheilbh]

Edgerton on Perry Anderson and EP Thompson is very much my type of thing
https://www.newstatesman.com/ideas/2021/10/why-the-left-must-abandon-the-myth-of-british-decline

Edit: Worth reading with the take on Tom Nairn: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/tom-nairn-prophet-post-britain

[Zanza]

The EU chose to engage in Northern Ireland

No, it did not. Brexit forced it get involved.

[Sheilbh]

Right - but as you've said the EU could have decided to just prioritise the single market and not engage with the particularities of Northern Ireland. It did, because it's important to a small member state and not supporting them would be a dreadful lesson from Brexit for the rest of Europe. It was also the right thing to do. But that is the choice the Council made when setting out their priorities from Brexit negotiations.