Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

In the ongoing weirdness/I don't fully know where this goes. My parents' MP Chris Loder at Tory Party Conference:

Tory MP says it could be 'great opportunity' if supermarket supply chains were to break
Rowena Mason

Rowena Mason

Chris Loder, a Tory MP, has told a fringe meeting that it would be a good thing to destroy supermarket supply chains, even if it causes short-term problems.

"I think actually one great opportunity we have from the issues we see at the moment is actually for some of these supermarket supply chains to crumble," Loder, who was first elected MP for West Dorset in 2019, told a fringe meeting on farming at the party's conference in Manchester, arguing that Brexit was not to blame for the problems. He went on:
I know it might not feel like it in the immediate term. But it is in our mid and long-term interest that these logistics chains do break.

It will mean that the farmer down the street will be able to sell their milk in the village shop like they did decades ago. It is because these commercial predators – that is the supermarkets – have wiped that out and I'd like to see that come back.

This used to be the sort of thing you'd only get from crazy Guardian commentators under a George Monbiot article. And if the Tories aren't for capitalism and commercial predators - what are they for?

Meanwhile more detailed polling on the economy (for the Tax Payers' Alliance) has Labour ahead of the Tories as the party trusted to "keep taxes low for people like you", Labour also more trusted to run public services and to "cut government waste". Tories still more trusted to "maintain a stable economy" and encourage growth. In normal times it is not a good thing for the Toriess if Labour are seen as the waste-cutting, low tax party of efficiency but here we are

Edit: Interesting - he might count as one of the working class MPs by background. Started out as a train guard aged 18 and worked up to management for South Western Rail which is quite the shift in background from Sir Oliver Letwin. And, in fairness, their neighbouring constituency has the achetypical Tory MP: local landowner

[mongers]

....

Edit: Interesting - he might count as one of the working class MPs by background. Started out as a train guard aged 18 and worked up to management for South Western Rail which is quite the shift in background from Sir Oliver Letwin. And, in fairness, their neighbouring constituency has the achetypical Tory MP: local landowner

Richard Drax, also ex-bbc man.

The new, rather expensive Dorchester museum has a nice piece about the slave owning local dynasties incl. said Drax family.

[Sheilbh]

It's been ages since I was in the area, because covid. I'm very excited the museum renovation's finally finished.

And that sounds good and interesting. Of course I assume they're also the Draxs of the power plants, which may have a plaque or discussion in museums in the future (and obviously the Bond villain).

[mongers]

It's been ages since I was in the area, because covid. I'm very excited the museum renovation's finally finished.

And that sounds good and interesting. Of course I assume they're also the Draxs of the power plants, which may have a plaque or discussion in museums in the future (and obviously the Bond villain).

It's like a scaled down Ashmolean.

Good point on the power station, I wonder if they are?

[Jacob]

Does Nick Clegg of the LibDems work for Facebook now?

Seeing some allegations against FB and the VP trying to talk it down in the media is named Nick Clegg. Is that the same bloke?

[Zanza]

Yes

[Jacob]

I'll never vote for the LibDems now, that's for sure.

[Sheilbh]

Does Nick Clegg of the LibDems work for Facebook now?

Seeing some allegations against FB and the VP trying to talk it down in the media is named Nick Clegg. Is that the same bloke?

Yeah he's their global head of comms and lobbying basically - and he joined in 2018 so he knew what type of organisation he was joining

[Tamas]

UK government has issued a veiled threat to ditch the Northern Ireland protocol sooner rather than later, warning it "cannot wait forever" for the EU to respond to its demands to rewrite the controversial Brexit arrangement.

In his speech to the conference, the Brexit minister, Lord Frost, said he had been waiting since July for a formal request for substantial changes to the protocol which the UK has largely suspended over objections to checks on a range of goods including sausages.

Declaring the "long bad dream of EU membership over", he warned the EU that it must come back to him with "ambitious" proposals to renegotiate the protocol which was drawn up to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland

What scummery. Blood-boiling and embarrassing

[The Brain]

Rogue countries do it from a position of inanity.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting Times polling in the Red Wall (so 50 2019/7 Labour-Tory seats in the North Midlands and North Wales). 32 of the 50 seats now would go to Labour. 54% disapprove of the government and 55% think it's handling the economy badly, 41% want Johnson to quit.

But there's not a clear Tory-Labour swing because a chunk of voters (probably more on the Labour left are going Green:


My suspicion is that in an election the relentless logic of FPTP would apply and the Green vote would shrink to about 1-2% and the Lib Dem vote might fall back again (not least because I think there'd be tactical voting given those approval numbers).

Mixed for Starmer - but more positive than I was expecting especially as I think that for Labour to win they need to win seats currently held by the Tories which is most easily done by convincing those votesr to swing to them instead, rather than pinning their hopes on driving turnout among non-voters.

Edit: Seeing the more detailed list and my main question is WTF is going on in Redcar?

[Sheilbh]

That's pretty wild.

Seems to me that the Jewish Labour Movement should hold their own celebration - "we did this" - and invite appropriate guests.

So Corbyn spoke at the event - the person next to him on the platform and holding his mic had been suspended from the Labour Party for anti-semitism

He really is the world's most unlucky anti-racism campaigner.

[Sheilbh]

Interesting polling by the Queen's University Belfast Post-Brexit Governance - at a high level opinions haven't really changed but they have become more entrenched. In the context of Northern Ireland this is, inevitably, on the basis of identity.

Most strikingly is the division on how voters want their MLAs to vote in 2024:

And 41% are willing to change which party they vote for to get an MLA who votes the way they want (this is stronger for opponents of the protocol than supporters). Although I believe that all four major unionist parties issued a joint declaration that they would all vote against it in 2024 (on Ulster Day, the anniversary of the Ulster Covenant) so I don't know that people actually need to move votes around on the "no" side.

But basically it's very split:
[
47% think the Protocol is an appropriate solution to Northern Ireland's issues, 47% think it isn't (up 4% since the last poll). Perhaps relatedly support for the non-sectarian Alliance Party has started falling (and the DUP support is collapsing) while support for the moderate Ulster Unionist Party and extremely hardline Traditional Unionist Voice are rising. I wonder if DUP voters are moving to the TUV while "soft" unionists who've previously backed Alliance are moving to the UUP.

The only people there's a high trust rating in is Northern Irish business reps. The UK government is (rightly) distrusted by 86% of people and the DUP by 78%. Almost all other groups (Irish government, EU, Sinn Fein, SDLP etc) float somewhere around 50/50 - so my guess is trust is dependent on which community you're in.  The only sort of insteresting exception is the Ulster Unionists who have about a third of people neutral - so may have a role as an "honest" broker particularly if they become the largest unionist party in 2022 (and so the unionist part of the executive).

In terms of solutions the most popular is for the UK to aline with the EU with 57% support (36% opposition - up from 24% in March). A majority (51%) oppose a land border, but 38% support it. There is more support for giving the Good Friday Agreement institutions (the North-South Ministerial Council, the British-Irish Council and the British Irish Intergovernmental Conference) a role in overseeing the operation of the Protocol - this might reflect that around 70% of people are concerned about "Northern Ireland's voice being heard" and "scrutiny of Protocol decision-making". A majority also think Frost and Sefcovic should be invited to give evidence to the Assembly every six months.

People were also asked if it was too early to take a definitive position on the Protocol - 55% said it wasn't, only a third thought it was too soon to tell.

As I've said before I think whatever happens it needs to start small and operational - working with Northern Irish business and civic organisations who are trusted messengers in both communities and, I think, needs to try and get buy in in Northern Ireland.

[Tamas]

Perhaps the buy in should have been sought before the terms were agreed to and made into law.

[Sheilbh]

Perhaps the buy in should have been sought before the terms were agreed to and made into law.

Sure. But it doesn't change the fact that there are two sides to the GFA/BA and one is, by the looks of it, utterly rejecting the Protocol - which is a problem for both of the parties that negotiated and agreed it.

I think Sefcovic gets the issues here a lot more and keeps reiterating that it's a technical trading document that shouldn't be an identity issue. But, as Simon Coveney has said, it has become an identity issue in Northern Ireland - because the nature of Northern Irish politics is that almost anything divisive does become about identity.

I don't know what the solution is - I still feel it's basically try to de-dramatise it and engage intensively with local businesses and civic organisations to build support for the NIP from the ground-up, because I still think it should give Northern Ireland the best of both worlds. But given that it sounds like 55% have made up their mind and aren't for changing I'm not sure that would work.

Edit: And of course we can't go back in time - so it's really about trying to retcon support within some of the unionist community and I'd focus on the UUP and "soft"/moderate unionists.