Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Syt]

Back to it, slackers! 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Dominic Raab called British workers "the worst idlers in the world"; takes one to know one I guess 

[Sheilbh]

Dominic Raab called British workers "the worst idlers in the world"; takes one to know one I guess 

I wish they'd stop talking Britain down. Our idling is one of the best features of this country

From Esther Webb on the weird mood of Tory conference. For what it's worth I think the divides will start showing between the more libertarian/Thatcherite and the socially conservative/post-Thatcherites. There's huge cognitive dissonance between Sunak's speech (which was very much a speech almost any Tory chancellor could give, and a little bit of a tease for him as leader) v Johnson and Gove's rather more relaxed attitude to spending money and increasing taxes etc. Also striking was Oliver Dowden as co-chair apparently having a torrid time at an event with members barracking him for banging on about"wokeness" ("were the suffragettes woke?") and over the Online Harms and Police and Crime Bills for being "authoritarian" and "draconian".

Separately I still think the supply chain/fuel crisis will be manageable (not least because I think supermarkets are involved and are very competent) - but I am very worried that just one thing needs to go wrong and we won't have any energy this winter and be in a very bad position. Plus I think the worries about an NHS winter crisis are fair, I think it's very vulnerable and the risks are really high. An NHS and energy crisis at once could be really bad:

Tories party like it's 2019
Despite supply chain problems, a fuel crisis, cuts to welfare and rising taxes, Boris Johnson's Conservative Party is determined to be cheerful.
By Esther Webber and Emilio Casalicchio   
October 6, 2021 4:00 am

MANCHESTER, England — Britain's Conservatives are willing themselves to believe in Boris Johnson's optimism and no one wants to burst the bubble — yet.

The prime minister will address his party faithful in Manchester Wednesday, the grand finale of the Tories' first in-person conference since their stunning electoral victory in 2019.

There were plenty of reasons to be fearful. The gathering occurred as the U.K. is gripped by supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising energy prices, a cut to welfare and the end of the furlough scheme which has paid the wages of millions of workers unable to do their jobs during the pandemic. As a result, the country could be on the verge of losing the economic advantage it gained from its early rollout of coronavirus vaccines.

On top of that there's a run on fuel, which now appears to be easing but has undoubtedly been uncomfortable for the government. A minister helping to coordinate the response to petrol shortages said they had sent their spouse to fill up the tank ahead of conference because they didn't want to be seen at the pumps.

The party's top brass braced for a backlash over a planned tax rise and long wait times for medical appointments.

In spite of all that, gin and tonics flowed, almost no one wore masks and the mood was buoyant. One newly elected MP said it "almost feels like a post-election get-together," pointing out that it was the first conference since the Tories gained 107 new MPs at the 2019 election. Delegates delighted in being back partying in person and one business lobbyist speculated that some older members had stayed away, leaving the young to pack out the bars.

A senior party activist said with a nod to Brexit and the vaccine rollout: "If you look at the macro-level things are really good ... And if you look forward and think we're going to win the next election you can feel pretty good."

As for Johnson himself, his relentless sunny outlook continues to boost the party. In the words of one Cabinet minister: "His optimism is infectious, and he will overcome all the fuel and supply chain issues. I've wholeheartedly drunk the Kool-Aid on Boris Johnson."

That Kool-Aid has become something of a rallying cry. Trade Minister Penny Mordaunt told a group of Young Conservatives: "The faultline in politics at the moment is not between left and right but between optimists and pessimists. We need optimists for the next tough shift."

Trust me, I'm the chancellor

The case for optimism against the odds also rests on Chancellor Rishi Sunak, whose role in keeping the party onside is both pivotal and precarious. His speech on Monday was the first event to see long lines for a seat, in contrast to Sunday's appearance by Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, another true blue favorite.

Sunak acknowledged the audacity of his own program, referring to tax rises as "un-Conservative." But he went on to insist: "I'll tell you what is un-Conservative: unfunded pledges, reckless borrowing and soaring debt. Yes, I want tax cuts. But in order to do that, our public finances must be put back on a sustainable footing."

He asked the party to trust him and for now they took him at his word.

At a fringe event hosted by the TaxPayers' Alliance, Tory MP Ben Bradley told delegates the pandemic meant that "low tax, small government is not really in the zeitgeist" but "there is only one party that's going to fix that."

He called attention to Sunak in particular, saying he is "a sound character and he gets it" — even suggesting it would be down to the chancellor to pull Johnson back towards core Conservative values.

Sunak and Johnson's contract of trust on tax has provided cover for Cabinet ministers such as Truss and Jacob Rees-Mogg to publicly claim they are guardians of a low-tax economy, even as they back the prime minister while he introduces new levies. One bemused attendee dubbed this "Thatcherite cosplay."

The outbreak of apparent unity is also underpinned by a change in the dynamic at the annual jamboree, which has in the past been electrified by the tension between the official front bench and the rabble-rousers on the sidelines.

For many years, Johnson's conference speech as London mayor was the highlight, keenly watched for his rhetorical tubthumping and occasional side-eye at David Cameron. He reprised this attention-seeking act in 2018 after resigning as foreign secretary, taking the spotlight away from then Prime Minister Theresa May.

On the fringes, Home Secretary Priti Patel and Rees-Mogg were always two of the star draws, frequently pulling in large crowds and even starting the phenomenon called "Moggmania." Now all of these populists are in the Cabinet and one of them is prime minister, something of the usual friction has been lost.

A year to deliver

Even with fair winds behind them, many Conservatives seem conscious that the waters could be choppier the next time they meet.

"As long as people are getting jobs and feel secure, it could be all right," said one MP for a relatively deprived constituency. "It will be a problem if bills keep on rising."

Fact File

"I would say people will give us a year," a senior Tory predicted, pointing out that Sunak's popularity had slipped back among party members and that his speech had been "more like something you'd expect to hear at a Google startup conference — not much that will resonate with normal people."

It appears to be a message Johnson is alive to, with aides briefing that delivery will be at the heart of his speech on Wednesday.

If the party's lovable troublemakers are now the ones holding the whip hand, the new insurgents are the 'red wall' MPs. They might not drive devoted followings as individuals but they have been the ones to watch at fringe events, where they have not been afraid to go off-message.

MPs' other big fear is that having agreed to raise money to pump into the NHS, voters will get restive if they do not see improvements in treatment. Members representing seats from across the country all said waiting times for GP appointments was the number one topic filling their postbags and inboxes, often a reliable indicator of trouble ahead.

Jonathan Gullis and Jack Brereton, who both represent Stoke-on-Trent in Staffordshire, attacked Conservative Campaign Headquarters as "closed off" and out of touch with voters at an event run by the Decision Problem think tank on Monday.

Also causing some rumblings of unease is the party's current relationship with the private sector, as both Sunak and Johnson set their sights on a higher-wage economy. Tuesday's Daily Telegraph splashed on hostile soundings-off against industry, with one senior government source reported as saying firms were "drunk on cheap labor."

Craig Beaumont from the Federation of Small Businesses described the government's stance as "pretty horrifying — to some extent I suspect this is a game, because they have to blame someone."

He added: "There's a real worry about tax. The tax burden is going to be the highest it's ever been for small businesses ... For every job, you will pay basically 15 percent of that salary in national insurance."

Perhaps the simplest explanation as to why none of these upsets seem to be causing the Tories any real grief at the moment is that they do not appear to have affected their standing in the country at large. The Conservatives are still ahead in the polls, on 40 percent to Labour's 34 percent.

Asked why there had been no proper bunfights at conference, one former minister said: "As long as we're winning, nobody cares."

Annabelle Dickson and Matt Honeycombe-Foster contributed reporting

As Marie Le Conte put it these have been the Platonic ideal of party conferences: the Labour Party argued with itself for three days; the Tories went off and had a jolly.

Separately - the supply issue is a crisis - but I think it is interesting that basically the big issues in politics are wages, taxes and funding for public services. It feels like a possible correction to the idea that all issues are cultural issues now and those are most important

[Sheilbh]

Dominic Raab called British workers "the worst idlers in the world"; takes one to know one I guess 

Incidentally his "misogyny is very bad whether it's a man against women or a woman against men" is outstanding

[Tamas]

On the fuel crisis, having spent a 4-days weekend in Hungary I was driving past our local Shell late last night and it still had no fuel. Along my M1-M4-M25  route from Luton I saw displayed messages about a couple of motorway service stations having no fuel whatsoever.

Considering I'll need to drive 40-50 miles to drop off my day 2 test by the end of this week, I will need to spend the weekend fuel-hunting. This will be an experience which 30 years in Eastern Europe (10 behind the Iron Curtain) could not give me. I am looking forward to it.

[Tamas]

Dominic Raab called British workers "the worst idlers in the world"; takes one to know one I guess 

Incidentally his "misogyny is very bad whether it's a man against women or a woman against men" is outstanding

To be fair to the guy, he has made it into being an un-sackable member of government despite being an utter tool. So I guess the joke is on us.

[Tamas]

I find this one week old switch of narrative for the government incredible. If they manage to get away from blame using it, that's going to paint a sorry picture.

After 11 years of power, the apparent way forward, according to them, to rid ourselves of the issue of ample goods and fuel availability, and reach higher level of prosperity via scarcity. They are painting a picture as if an unbearable crisis has been solved by Brexit and we are in the birthing pains stage of a glorious future.

EDIT: incidentally, that's textbook Eastern Bloc propaganda from the cold war era. 

[garbon]

Johnson claims Labour does not like levelling up.

And he claims that in Islington, under Labour, they even have races for children where no one wins. That is no preparation for life, let alone for the Olympics, he says.

Also a highlight is that he has come out strong that truck divers should have truck stops, not be forced to pee in bushes!

[Josquius]

EDIT: incidentally, that's textbook Eastern Bloc propaganda from the cold war era. 

True.
I hope the political photoshop ninjas are on that one.

Also a highlight is that he has come out strong that truck divers should have truck stops, not be forced to pee in bushes!

Thats a fair point tbh. The shitty conditions are a major thing making so many licenses unused at the moment. I read a piece by one comparing the experience driving in France to the UK and it is night and day how awful it is here.

Very un-tory 3 dimensional thinking there. Something weird is going on.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Dominic Raab called British workers "the worst idlers in the world"; takes one to know one I guess 

Incidentally his "misogyny is very bad whether it's a man against women or a woman against men" is outstanding

...and my particular favourite  "I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing." 

[Tamas]

Dominic Raab called British workers "the worst idlers in the world"; takes one to know one I guess 

Incidentally his "misogyny is very bad whether it's a man against women or a woman against men" is outstanding

...and my particular favourite  "I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing." 

Some insight, that was.

[Tamas]

Johnson is now talking about Emma Raducanu, and Team GB's success at the Olympics.

And that happened even though the UK has just 0.8% of the world's population – despite his and Jacob Rees-Mogg's best efforts (they both have six children, although in Johnson's case rumours persist there could be more).

He says that spirit is what he wants to unleash.

And that's it. The speech is over.

Of Canadian birth to two immigrants from different continents. The very symbol of the world he proudly rejects.

I guess Johnson himself is probably quite cosmopolitan and if that yielded more votes he'd be the most pro-immigration person on the island. But that makes it worse, not better.

[garbon]

Thats a fair point tbh. The shitty conditions are a major thing making so many licenses unused at the moment. I read a piece by one comparing the experience driving in France to the UK and it is night and day how awful it is here.

I don't think there would be anyone who would say, no it is better for them to pee in bushes.

[Sheilbh]

...and my particular favourite  "I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing." 

Every time I see Raab I just can't help but imagine him as a Linklaters trainee in All Bar One boring some poor secretary to death on the "massive deals" he's "on" (photocopying).

My favourite - though not from Raab - was when Karen Bradley was Northern Ireland Secretary under May and was suprised to discover there aren't Sinn Fein-DUP swing voters

Of Canadian birth to two immigrants from different continents. The very symbol of the world he proudly rejects.

I guess Johnson himself is probably quite cosmopolitan and if that yielded more votes he'd be the most pro-immigration person on the island. But that makes it worse, not better.

Yes - although, of course, her parents are both very high-earning investment bankers. Well remunerated bankers from around the world living in Bromley and sending their kids to selective schools sounds like Johnson's core vote - at least as mayor. They're probably Lib Dems in their hearts now but voted Tory in 2019 to avoid a Corbyn premiership. So I'm not sure it's entirely the world he rejects rather than one he has richly benefited from both personally and politically.

And as you say he's of American birth and Eastern European Jewish and Turkish descent.

I don't think there would be anyone who would say, no it is better for them to pee in bushes.

A bold policy option for the Lib Dems, perhaps.

Edit: Incidentally as I thought might happen it seems "Tory Scum" badges and tote bags have been quite the hit at the conference.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Johnson is now talking about Emma Raducanu, and Team GB's success at the Olympics.

And that happened even though the UK has just 0.8% of the world's population – despite his and Jacob Rees-Mogg's best efforts (they both have six children, although in Johnson's case rumours persist there could be more).

He says that spirit is what he wants to unleash.

And that's it. The speech is over.

Of Canadian birth to two immigrants from different continents. The very symbol of the world he proudly rejects.

I guess Johnson himself is probably quite cosmopolitan and if that yielded more votes he'd be the most pro-immigration person on the island. But that makes it worse, not better.

Yes indeed, he is cosmopolitan and certainly no racist, but he has olympian status when it comes to cynical hypocrisy.