Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

I often feel that the UK has an unhealthier social attitude toward drinking than Hungary.

For example, I don't think such a jovial celebration of alcoholism (with then similar comments under it highlighted for posterity) would ever be published:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/29/i-started-lockdown-with-the-focus-of-sarah-connor-in-terminator-now-im-drinking-more-than-ever

I mean enjoying a drink is the only good thing left in this country

I quite liked that piece, can recognise more than a bit. But it's like phases - there was definitely a drinking phase in lockdown, also a sourdough making phase and a takeawy phase etc.

Edit: Incidentally looking at it the UK is far more moderate than I expected. I thought we'd be far worse:
https://ourworldindata.org/alcohol-consumption

[Josquius]

No idea on actual numbers but I strongly suspect the UK had a heavier manufacturing % than Sweden.

I wouldn't read too much into alcohol consumption numbers. Quite a difference between the glass of wine with every meal of some and Britain's binge drinking insanity. The only countries that comr close there in my experience are Sweden and Finland.

[Sheilbh]

I wouldn't read too much into alcohol consumption numbers. Quite a difference between the glass of wine with every meal of some and Britain's binge drinking insanity. The only countries that comr close there in my experience are Sweden and Finland.

Yeah. I'd say the Scandis and from my experience Eastern Europe, certainly Ukraine and bits of the Balkans.

Edit: In fact when I was in Sweden I was ordering a drink at a bar, got chatting to a guy who asked where I was from. I said I was from the UK and he was like "British, well we like binge drinking too!"

[The Larch]

Being in a Baltic ferry when the ship enters international waters is a sight to behold.

[Sheilbh]

As I say - would not be surprised if the Tories got rid of him in the next year if this carries on - let him "get Brexit done"/take the blame, then knife him in the back and move on:

Boris Johnson faces Tory wrath as party slumps in shock poll
Party in despair, senior MP says, as Labour draws level in wake of exam chaos and Covid U-turns
Toby Helm Political Editor
Sat 29 Aug 2020 19.45 BST
Last modified on Sat 29 Aug 2020 20.26 BST

Boris Johnson is facing a showdown with furious Conservative MPs over his government's chaotic handling of Covid-19, as a new poll shows the Tories have surrendered a massive lead over Labour in just five months.

As MPs prepare to return to Westminster on Tuesday, Charles Walker, who is vice-chair of the 1922 committee of Conservative backbenchers, told the Observer that a recent string of U-turns had left many colleagues in despair, with some struggling to support and defend their government to constituents. Governing by U-turn in this way, he said, was unsustainable.

Walker, who is normally counted as a firm Johnson loyalist, said: "Too often it looks like this government licks its finger and sticks it in the air to see which way the wind is blowing. This is not a sustainable way to approach the business of governing and government.

"It is becoming increasingly difficult for backbenchers now to promote and defend government policy as so often that policy is changed or abandoned without notice. Whether this approach is by design or by accident, the climate of uncertainty it creates is unsustainable and erodes morale."

Walker and the chairman of the 1922 committee, Sir Graham Brady, are expecting to have their "ears bent" by angry colleagues when MPs reconvene in the House of Commons, before relaying those concerns and strength of feeling to No 10. "We need to take the temperature on Tuesday and Wednesday and then decide what the plan of action is," said a 1922 committee source.

The recent exams fiasco and other sudden policy reversals, most recently over the wearing of face masks in schools, led many Tory MPs to believe that Johnson and his cabinet ministers have lost their grip.

Conservative MPs, including many ex-ministers with extensive experience inside government, are also increasingly angry that their voices and concerns, and those of senior Whitehall officials with many years of service, are being ignored and dismissed as power and decision-making is increasingly centred on a tight but inexperienced group within Downing Street.

Today, in a further blow to Conservative morale, a poll by Opinium for the Observer shows Labour is now level-pegging with the Tories for the first time since last summer, before Johnson was leader. In just five months since the full lockdown was imposed by the prime minister, the Conservatives have lost a 26-point lead over Labour who now stand neck-and-neck with the Tories on 40%.

The Liberal Democrats under their new leader Ed Davey, who was elected last week, are on 6%.

Adam Drummond of Opinium said: "This is the first time Labour have drawn level since July 2019 when both main parties were in freefall and losing votes to the Brexit party and the Liberal Democrats.

"Since Boris Johnson became prime minister the Tories typically had a double digit lead, peaking in March/April this year when they were seen to be handling the pandemic and lockdown fairly well while Labour changed leader. In the five months since that peak, the lead has gradually declined from 26% to 0% now."

Anxious Conservative MPs are particularly frustrated by education secretary Gavin Williamson's handling of the A-level and GCSE results crisis. With schools in England, Wales and Northern Ireland re-opening for the first time since March from Tuesday, MPs and ministers believe Williamson will not survive if the return to education is mired in further chaos.

Yesterday teachers and their unions launched new attacks on Williamson after his department issued last-minute guidance to schools on how to cope with Covid-19 outbreaks, giving them just days to react, having asked for months for such guidance and been dismissed.

Johnson is due to appear before the powerful House of Commons liaison committee of senior backbenchers on 16 September, during which he will be pressured to explain his government's shortcomings by MPs of all parties.

On the same day Williamson will appear before the all-party education select committee.

At the end of March, shortly after Johnson imposed the full lockdown, the Conservatives were surging ahead on 54% of the vote, with Labour, awaiting the result of the party's leadership election, on 28%. At the time Johnson's personal ratings were also very positive, but are now consistently well behind those of Labour leader Keir Starmer.

[The Brain]

It seems extremely unlikely to me that Johnson and his ministers have lost their grip.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/sep/01/uk-coronavirus-live-news-covid-19-latest-updates-pupils-head-back-to-school-as-mps-return-to-work?page=with:block-5f4e1d608f08ac62b0fb43a8#block-5f4e1d608f08ac62b0fb43a8

Johnson claims Britons returning to office 'in huge numbers'

Sky News has broadcast a clip of Boris Johnson addressing cabinet at the start of today's meeting. It was standard Johnson boosterism. He said:

People are going back to the office in huge numbers across our country, and quite right too.

And, of course, we know that there is still going to be more of this disease, this wretched Covid, still to come, and although we know there'll be more outbreaks, we're also absolutely confident that we are going to be able to deal with those outbreaks, and bit by bit this incredible country is getting back on its feet.

It is not clear yet what evidence there is to support Johnson's claim that people are returning to the office "in huge numbers". Last week there were multiple reports (eg here and here) saying the opposite. I'm back in the Guardian office in the House of Commons for the first time since March, but the roads were quiet and the pavements relatively empty as I came into Westminster. If people are embracing commuting in large numbers in London, I didn't spot it.

[Tamas]

Constantly saying shit that had nothing to do with reality has elevated him to lead the United Kingdom. Why would he stop now?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't see that it is any of his business how people choose to work.

[Tamas]

I don't see that it is any of his business how people choose to work.

There are rents of office buildings that important people expect to be paid. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

I don't see that it is any of his business how people choose to work.

There are rents of office buildings that important people expect to be paid. 

I suppose he does represent the interests of the rentier class; so perhaps he is merely trying to serve his constituents, selfless fellow that he is.

[Sheilbh]

I don't see that it is any of his business how people choose to work.

There are rents of office buildings that important people expect to be paid. 

Yeah - because the bankers, hedge fund partners, lawyers etc who can save money on their rents never vote Tory

Also given all of the Brexit stuff why do we think the Tories particularly care about any business at the minute?

[Tamas]

There are businesses/businessmen who at least think they'd profit from a hard Brexit, you know. Dyson in particular was very open about how he doesn't give a damn about tariff borders raising toward the EU as he mostly exports to outside the EU.

[garbon]

I don't see that it is any of his business how people choose to work.

There are rents of office buildings that important people expect to be paid. 

Yeah - because the bankers, hedge fund partners, lawyers etc who can save money on their rents never vote Tory

Also given all of the Brexit stuff why do we think the Tories particularly care about any business at the minute?

So what's the alternative spin? He's meddling in where people work because he misses the hustle and bustle of the city?

[Sheilbh]

There are businesses/businessmen who at least think they'd profit from a hard Brexit, you know. Dyson in particular was very open about how he doesn't give a damn about tariff borders raising toward the EU as he mostly exports to outside the EU.

Sure, but I'm not sure if he's a big Tory donor. There's the head of JCB (who definitely is) and some hedge funders as well. But the overwhelming view of the business comunity and especially the financial services companies are that it's a bad idea, not least property developers and landlords because the market has softened since the Brexit vote. I mean Johnson's the guy who famously said "fuck business" during the Brexit referendum. Once we leave I imagine there'll be lots of opportunities for the Tories to start doing favours for business when we start diverging, but I've seen no reason to think this is a government that particularly cares what business thinks - business groups routinely complain they're just not even being engaged on Brexit planning for example.

And in part that's probably because of who the opposition was until recently, I went to an event in December that was full of bankers and the like and they all seemed far, far more keen on a hard Brexit than Corbyn in office - though they thought they were both pretty disastrous options.

I suspect the big push from this is coming from the Treasury who are freaking out about how to pay for everything, especially furlough.