Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

And why would it not falter once the furlough scheme is over and Brexit actually comes into effect?

Yeah - I mean I think people get there's been a (temporary) collapse and understand why. This isn't like 2008 where the vagaries of financial engineering caused a recession. We were all told by the government to stay at home, some of us had to stop working and we all had to stop going to the shops, to pubs, bars etc. I think it's a very comprehensible economic hit and I don't think it's one people will blame the government for. Similarly with Brexit I think it's relatively comprehensible, but I think on these people who are remainers will blame the government, people who are leavers won't - unless the reasonable worst case scenario happens in which case everyone will turn on the government (though even then it depends on how Sunak responds - if it's perceived as another case of him cleaning up Johnson's (and in covid Hancock's) mess he might not get the blame).

What I think will matter is the response and whether we recover well. The early indicators coming out are very strong, which is good and it seems like EOTHO has had an impact. And you know I really really hope the predictions of a V shaped recovery are true (and it does make sense to me that that's how it would go). If the recovery is weak, then I think that would probably hurt him. Similarly if there's stuff around competence I think that would hurt his core brand - I mean if, say, there were a spike of infections that can be linked to EOTHO I think that would hit his ratings pretty strongly, or if he has an Osborne style omnishambles budget.

But, again, even with that if Boris went - at this point I can't think of another strong challenger. Patel is very popular in the party but I think they're aware she's very unpopular in the country, same goes for Gove. Raab didn't impress when he was deputising for Johnson. I can't see a clear alternative. But a lot can change in 6 months, far less the next 4 years - Sunak could really fuck it up, there could be a scandal (his father-in-law is the co-founder of Infosys so I can imagine there is a potential risk for scandal there). At this stage he seems a lot better placed than any of his rivals - you know it's a good position to be in when the main risk of your candidacy is that you lack experience rather than have a record of catastrophes (Williamson, Hancock) or of widespread public disdain (Gove, Patel)

Rings very true.
What annoys me is those on the left who don't realise how much this stuff is manufactured by the right and they're helping the tories, brexkip, etc... But out a lot by jumping in with it.

I think it goes both ways. I certainly think there have been various freak-outs by the left out of literally nothing - elephant ivory, bringing back fox hunting, I'd argue basically every time the left loses its shit over "privatising the NHS".

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/aug/26/uk-coronavirus-live-news-covid-19-latest-updates-boris-johnson-u-turn-face-masks

Where a student or staff member is struggling to access a mask, or if it soiled or unsafe, the guidance says that schools should take steps to have a "small contingency supply" available, adding no-one should excluded on the grounds that they are not wearing a face covering.

How would this work? School has enough masks each day to provide to those who are unable or unwilling to bring their own mask?

[Sheilbh]

I think so. I feel like schools are going to need a supply anyway because kids messing about.

[Josquius]

Will it be like if you forget your PE kit and you have to wear the disgusting vintage 1970s shorts they have spare for this occasion?

[Sheilbh]

Will it be like if you forget your PE kit and you have to wear the disgusting vintage 1970s shorts they have spare for this occasion?

I was literally thinking there is going to be someone coming in every day saying they forgot their mask. I hope schools have a stash for these occassions and not, as you say, bringing out the plague-mask that's been won by half the school.

[garbon]

I was literally thinking there is going to be someone coming in every day saying they forgot their mask.

Yes, that's what I was getting at with my question. This 'small' stash seems like it'll not be all that small.

[Josquius]

I can imagine even with parents who are competent and really try there'll be more than a few kids losing them en-route to school as a way to try and get sent home.

[Sheilbh]

Schools have been open in Scotland for a couple of weeks already and they're moving to compulsory masks in high schools starting next week.

As with the algorithm I'm never not surprised at the London-based press and politicians apparently being entirely unaware and uninterested in a part of the country facing the same issues just a couple of weeks early

[Tamas]

I feel like it is entirely hopeless to expect kids, even high school kids, to properly adhere to such regulations.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Yes, Scotland's schools can be treated as an early warning system for England. If things go badly there England will have three weeks warning of how to react; damned decent of the Scots to do this for us 

The lack of interest in London and Westminster is amazing; even as a simple matter of reassuring English parents ("the Scots aren't dead yet") Scotland being three weeks ahead is so potentially useful.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, Scotland's schools can be treated as an early warning system for England. If things go badly there England will have three weeks warning of how to react; damned decent of the Scots to do this for us 

Yes. But this was also true of the exam results and instead of learning from what was happening in Scotland the English government basically watched the flaming multi-car pileup develop and then drove headlong into it

It is also a nice reversal of the norm in this crisis of the English government announcing a shift in lockdown or whatever, the SNP spending two weeks pointing out how callously Tories are treating the lives of their own people before, quietly, adopting the exact same policy with some cosmetic differences.

[Sheilbh]

I feel like it is entirely hopeless to expect kids, even high school kids, to properly adhere to such regulations.

Yeah. It's why I feel it's actually more likely we end up having to shut down bits of the economy again to keep schools open. Because I think opening schools is the most important thing we can do, but we can't expect kids to follow detailed rules or schools to really be able to enforce them, because enforcing rules on a couple of thousand teenagers is already difficult

But that probably means we may need to do more social distancing/less mixing elsewhere.

[Tamas]

Yes, Scotland's schools can be treated as an early warning system for England. If things go badly there England will have three weeks warning of how to react; damned decent of the Scots to do this for us 

The lack of interest in London and Westminster is amazing; even as a simple matter of reassuring English parents ("the Scots aren't dead yet") Scotland being three weeks ahead is so potentially useful.

It's not like they paid attention to Italy and Spain melting down back in March, either.

[Sheilbh]

After a leadership contest lasting what can I only assume have been decades, the Lib Dems have finally elected a new leader!

I hope he had some more upbeat lines than the ones in this article

'Wake up and smell the coffee': Ed Davey elected Lib Dem leader
Former coalition minister says his party must start listening as he defeats Layla Moran
Heather Stewart Political editor
Thu 27 Aug 2020 12.09 BST
First published on Thu 27 Aug 2020 11.36 BST

Ed Davey urged the Liberal Democrats to "wake up and smell the coffee", as he was declared his party's fourth leader in five years after a string of poor general election performances.

Davey, who has been acting leader since last December, was a cabinet minister in the 2010-2015 coalition government. He beat his rival, Layla Moran, by 42,756 votes to 24,564.

In a livestreamed acceptance speech, Davey said: "My job, as from today, is to rebuild the Lib Dems to national relevance."

He said the Lib Dems were "powerful advocates locally", but on the national stage "we have to face the facts of three disappointing general election results".

"Voters don't believe the Lib Dems want to help ordinary people get on in life," he said. "Voters don't believe we share their values. And voters don't believe we are on the side of people like them. Voters have been sending us a message, but we have not been listening. It is time for us to start listening," he said. "I am listening now."

He said he would travel the UK in the coming weeks, adding: "I will face up to uncomfortable truths, and I will make your concerns my own."

Davey stressed his ministerial experience and commitment to tackling climate change during a drawn-out campaign.

The contest was initially shelved for a year as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, before being rescheduled for the summer.

Davey's predecessor Jo Swinson expanded the parliamentary party with defections from Labour. She fought the 2019 general election claiming to be a potential prime minister, but ended the campaign with just 11 MPs, losing her own seat to the SNP in the process.

Moran, 37, was a teacher before entering parliament in 2016. She is currently the Lib Dem education spokesperson, and had been expected to shift the party to the left if she won.

Two thoughts. Electing a fairly centrist if uninspiring liberal makes more sense to me than Layla Moran's approach which would basically have had the Lib Dems fighting the Greens for Labour's scraps - especially given the profile of Lib Dem constituencies (posh urban areas and some very large, slightly eccentric rural areas). Also for a party that's polling 6% turnout, they still have about 120,000 members which is really impressive (Tories have about 190,000, Labour just over 500,000).

[The Brain]

Only untrustworthy politicians without opinions of their own listen. State your opinions and then I decide if I want to vote for you. The "tell me what to think" BS annoys me.