Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

I know a guy that was racially profiled by the NYPD because his dark skin and beard made him look like an Arab (he's a Spaniard).

My uncle (Irish descent) got racially profiled as Spanish in Spain. They thought he was hanging out in the British tourist bars for no good reason.

Some Basque once spoke Basque to me while in the Basque country at a train station! 

It wasn't quite that obvious

The point is it was in a British tourist colony in a British tourist pub

[Richard Hakluyt]

They were right though, there is no good reason to hang out in a British tourist bar in Spain 

[Syt]

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/no-deal-brexit-second-coronavirus-wave_uk_5f42683cc5b6763e5dc4647d

The Potential Nightmare Facing The UK If No-Deal Brexit And Second Coronavirus Wave Collide

A leaked Cabinet Office document describes a possible disaster in the coming months.

Power shortages, violence and troops on the streets and even military airdrops to provide food to the Channel Islands have all been detailed in a "reasonable worst-case scenario" document examining what could happen if a no-deal Brexit and second coronavirus wave coincide this winter.

The Cabinet Office paper, leaked to The Sun newspaper, also warns the Navy may be needed to stop British fishermen clashing with illegal European fishing boat incursions.

It says parts of the UK may face power and petrol shortages if thousands of lorries are stranded in Dover while shortages of medicines caused by port blockages could lead to animal diseases spreading through the countryside.

The classified document, dated July 2020, further warns that if trade restrictions triggered by a no-deal Brexit are combined with floods, flu and another coronavirus wave, then hospitals may be overwhelmed, PA Media reports.

Town halls could go bust and troops may have to be drafted on to the streets if the economic toll causes public disorder, shortages and price hikes, according to the leaked dossier.

A government spokeswoman said the document "reflects a responsible government ensuring we are ready for all eventualities".

UK and EU negotiators warned there has been little progress during the latest round of post-Brexit trade deal talks last week and time is running out to broker a deal before the transition period comes to a close at the end of the year.

Scientists are fearful that the winter months could bring about a second wave of coronavirus in the UK.

Cabinet Office minister Michael Gove said: "We got Brexit done with a great deal in January and we are working flat out to make sure the United Kingdom is ready for the changes and huge opportunities at the end of the year as we regain our political and economic independence for the first time in almost fifty years.

"Part of this work includes routine contingency planning for various scenarios that we do not think will happen, but we must be ready for come what may. Whether we trade with the EU on terms similar to Canada or to Australia, a brighter future awaits as we forge our own path."

A government spokeswoman added: "At the end of the year we will be outside the single market and the customs union, whatever the outcome of negotiations, and intensive planning is under way to help ensure that businesses and citizens are ready to take advantage of the opportunities and changes that will bring.

"This includes launching a comprehensive communications campaign to make sure everyone knows what they need to do to prepare.

"As a responsible government we continue to make extensive preparations for a wide range of scenarios, including the reasonable worst case.

"This is not a forecast or prediction of what will happen but rather a stretching scenario. It reflects a responsible government ensuring we are ready for all eventualities."

Original Sun article, if you want to give them traffic: https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/12474511/emergency-plans-perfect-storm-no-deal-brexit-coronavirus-second-wave/

[Josquius]

The rumour mill suggests Johnson may stand down due to Corona related health problems.

https://www.businessinsider.com/dominic-cummings-father-in-law-boris-johnson-will-resign-february-2020-8?r=US&IR=T

I wouldn't read much into this article. But it is a thought.
Seems the smartest move for the Tories really. Lets him go down as a martyr whilst cleaning their slate of all the screwups.

[Tamas]

The rumour mill suggests Johnson may stand down due to Corona related health problems.

https://www.businessinsider.com/dominic-cummings-father-in-law-boris-johnson-will-resign-february-2020-8?r=US&IR=T

I wouldn't read much into this article. But it is a thought.
Seems the smartest move for the Tories really. Lets him go down as a martyr whilst cleaning their slate of all the screwups.

Who would take over? Gove? I guess at least the Brexit mess would destroy him. I am game.

[Sheilbh]

Who would take over? Gove? I guess at least the Brexit mess would destroy him. I am game.

Sunak. On first name terms with voters, had a good crisis, not defined by Brexit, first ever minority PM/party leader, appears competent. There's a lot of big selling points for Tory MPs which I don't think any other candidate has - I'm not sure who else would run. Probably Raab (again) and Patel. I don't know if Gove would run again.

Gove is very much running things already I think.

The rumour mill suggests Johnson may stand down due to Corona related health problems.

https://www.businessinsider.com/dominic-cummings-father-in-law-boris-johnson-will-resign-february-2020-8?r=US&IR=T

I wouldn't read much into this article. But it is a thought.
Seems the smartest move for the Tories really. Lets him go down as a martyr whilst cleaning their slate of all the screwups.

Yeah - I mean I have moved from a slight doubt to seriously thinking he won't be running in 2024 and could go a lot sooner.

He has a majority of 80 which should be safe but he's got a lot of issues with his party especially over schools and A-level marking and parts of the covid response. If you've just won the first solid majority for you party since 1987 it takes a lot to get the party to start causing problems, but here we are. The Tories aren't remotely sentimental about removing a leader.

But I think this also could be a factor - I've read several pieces from people on the right who will have sources in the Tory party saying he is still nowhere near back to normal since his covid infection and it has really knocked it out of him. Given that, plus a new kid and marriage, I think you can definitely see him stepping down (especially if he does see party unrest growing because at least this would be on his terms).

I imagine it'll happen after the end of the Brexit transition so he can say he got Brexit done and then go.

[Josquius]

I imagine it'll happen after the end of the Brexit transition so he can say he got Brexit done and then go.

To come back in 10 years time like Churchill's second term. He delivered the great victory of brexit and its not his fault the country was driven into a ditch afterwards!

[Tamas]

We know Sunak is competent because why? He has a TV-compatible smile and Cummings approved the stimulus package his underlings got together?

[Sheilbh]

I imagine it'll happen after the end of the Brexit transition so he can say he got Brexit done and then go.

To come back in 10 years time like Churchill's second term. He delivered the great victory of brexit and its not his fault the country was driven into a ditch afterwards!

Not impossible.

Or de Gaulle. After 10 years on a farm in Hampshire, Boris Johnson makes a surprise appearance in County Down telling crowds "I have understood you!"

[Sheilbh]

We know Sunak is competent because why? He has a TV-compatible smile and Cummings approved the stimulus package his underlings got together?

Compare and contrast with other Ministers - Hancock, Williamson etc. If he's not competent - who from across the Labour, Lib Dem and Tory front-benchers would you say is? Plus as I say "appears competent" because that matters in politics. He is able to communicate well and seems to understand the detail of his brief, he sounds like he's across the detail so can respond to questions on point etc.

Obviously his underlings do lots of the work but that's part of being a leader and if we expect (rightly) that politicians take the responsibility for failures by their department, then we kind of have to give credit, no? Otherwise you get into the very cynical world of "all politicians are the same/all politicians are useless/all politicians are just out to cheat us" - at which point the natural question is well what's the point of elections/having them in charge at all etc.

But I think his response to the crisis has been impressive so far. Lots of measures that worked in terms of generally protecting jobs and businesses and most people. There are exception but part of that I think is because of a strategic choice he made of do you try and build a new system in a crisis that will avoid the odd failure, and not really focus spending where it's needed or do you use existing systems and just pump money aware that this might miss people and isn't focused - he chose the latter and, I think that was probably right given the speed at which we needed to move and the UK state's record of building new IT/tax/welfare systems. Plus I think eat out to help out has been very popular but I also think it's quite a good and clever stimulus measure - I wouldn't be surprised to see other countries copy that. Seems fair to say he seems competent.

I don't really get the Cummings obsession. But I see that this week briefings from discontents in the Tory party have moved from Cummings and Johnson are control freaks who are dangerously imposing their vision on ministers to Cummings and Johnson are basically not involved enough, they're acting as a chair of the cabinet, letting issues fester and only getting involved when it's too late (A-levels, school reopenings etc). I would note these two modes of criticism are the same that I've heard about every Prime Minister in my memory

[garbon]

Isn't Rishi's star going to begin to dim as the free goodies start to be phased out?

[Sheilbh]

Isn't Rishi's star going to begin to dim as the free goodies start to be phased out?

Maybe, I see people saying that. But I read it slightly different. I don't think his brand is the Chancellor who gives out lots of free stuff, it's that he was competent in a crisis and responded well. I don't think that necessarily goes away as those measures get phased out or he raises taxes/cuts spending elsewhere.

I think his rating will be more tied to how the economy performs in general, rather than free stuff.

[Sheilbh]

Very interesting piece on our culture "wars" in the Spectator:

Duel Britannia: The myth of Britain's culture war
25 August 2020, 3:57pm
Duel Britannia: The myth of Britain's culture war

Can I make a confession? I'm not really interested in the Last Night of the Proms. I don't think I've ever watched it. I don't really know the words to 'Rule Britannia'. Or the other one.

Does that mean I hate Britain and all it stands for? Does it mean I am callously indifferent to Britain's shameful history of imperialism and oppression?

Of course not. It means I'm like the overwhelming majority of people in this country — of all ages, races, backgrounds — who don't get very excited about this stuff. We are the civilians in the culture wars, and we are many.

Yes, I know a lot of people who comment under articles like this are passionately insistent that these things matter, to them and everyone they know. Likewise Twitter. But — brace yourself for this — neither comments on media articles nor social media drivel are representative of the country as a whole.

And yes, I'm sure polls are being prepared even now that will show majorities in favour of the Proms et al. But those polls will show preference, not salience: cultural spats are very low on the priority list for most people.

What about the other side of this supposed conflict? How many people are actually demanding change to the Proms? Again, most people don't care that much. The idea that there is a significant demand for change here is for the birds.

The same was true of our 'national debate' about statues and Winston Churchill. No one was demanding Churchill be removed from Parliament Square. Some idiot Socialist Worker types made a bit of noise about it, but if they'd been — rightly — ignored instead of amplified, that 'debate' would have fizzled before it started.

But, of course, there are people who don't want to ignore things that should be marginal. They make good copy, after all. Any good hack knows that a 'row' about something 'iconic' such as Churchill, the Proms, the Red Arrows or the monarchy will get clicks and shares and comments.

A certain sort of politician enjoys this stuff too. When I was a lobby hack, we kept lists of rent-a-quote MPs (generally Tory, but also Labour) who would be reliably outraged by some cultural atrocity or other. Some were even happy to let trusted hacks manufacture angry quotes for them: 'yeah, you can do something in my name.'

Several of them went on to solid ministerial careers; some are in cabinet today.

Then there's the PM, who was a (posh) hack before he was a politician — and a very good one too. Great columnists — I am not one, obviously — can sniff the wind and catch the scent of ideas and trends that are as yet barely formed. Their columns anticipate and shape conversation by tapping into underlying feelings in their audiences.

Boris Johnson made a very good living as a columnist because he was very good at spotting issues where his combination of eloquence and political savviness would allow him to speak to and for his chosen audience. Seeing him stick it to the BBC over the Proms reminds me of nothing so much as my occasional days editing his column at the Telegraph. He's spotted another chance to insert himself into a story, and — now that he's PM — by doing so making that story look a lot bigger than it really is.

The BBC, of course, is happy to play its part in this confected drama. The Corporation likes nothing better than talking about itself.

The result is that a lot of people will hear about the Proms 'row' and maybe get the impression that a lot of other people have very strong feelings — on both sides — about it. But that's ultimately a false impression, because most of us don't really care very much about this stuff.

Britain doesn't have a culture war. It has culture skirmishes, fought by a tiny group of paramilitaries while we civilians look on, bemused.

Written by James Kirkup

James Kirkup is director of the Social Market Foundation and a former political editor of The Scotsman and The Daily Telegraph.

Saw this being shared by Gaby Hinsliff - interesting exchange between her (Guardian) and Daniel Knowles (Economist):

gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff
39m
regret to say that as a young hack i used to have an Outrage (general) section under O in my contacts book,for people who could be relied on to be outraged when rung at short notice late at night

Daniel Knowles @dlknowles
13m
Yeah I mean, I see why it happens (news happens late, you need stuff!). Just find it so bleak

gabyhinsliff @gabyhinsliff
this wasn't as a lobby hack, I should say. It's graveyard shifts as a young reporter, following up late running stories, thinking 'who won't put the phone down on me at 11pm'. I just checked - half my list must be dead now but more than one became ministers(:

[garbon]

Isn't Rishi's star going to begin to dim as the free goodies start to be phased out?

Maybe, I see people saying that. But I read it slightly different. I don't think his brand is the Chancellor who gives out lots of free stuff, it's that he was competent in a crisis and responded well. I don't think that necessarily goes away as those measures get phased out or he raises taxes/cuts spending elsewhere.

I think his rating will be more tied to how the economy performs in general, rather than free stuff.

And why would it not falter once the furlough scheme is over and Brexit actually comes into effect?

[Josquius]

Very interesting piece on our culture "wars" in the Spectator:
[me ministers(:

[/quote]

Rings very true.
What annoys me is those on the left who don't realise how much this stuff is manufactured by the right and they're helping the tories, brexkip, etc... But out a lot by jumping in with it.