Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

If so, why not fire Cummings and then outsource that work to someone else?

Because he backs Cummings/Gove?

In a bigger sense I don't think Johnson has any idea what to do for or after Brexit - he's not a politician with a huge policy agenda he's always wanted to implement. Cummings and Gove give him that and I think that's Cummings' value to him. He has ideas while Johnson's fundamentally pretty empty.

It's a bit like Steve Hilton and Cameron and I imagine may end the same way.

Without the whole Cummings travel disaster I would have agreed with you. But I think anyone even slightly dispensable to the government would have been let go. Cummings IS the government, for whatever reason.

Exactly. It wasn't laziness that had him keep him on after that incident.

[Sheilbh]

Without the whole Cummings travel disaster I would have agreed with you. But I think anyone even slightly dispensable to the government would have been let go. Cummings IS the government, for whatever reason.

Yeah - but I think that's the point. He's not dispensable because he is the ideas (with Gove), without him I don't think Johnson has any idea what he wants to do (apart from be Prime Minister) after Brexit.

It's why I think there's a similarity with Cameron - these callow Eton boys, raised to rule but with no actual purpose. And it is striking how similar Cummings and Hilton's ideas are. I wouldn't even be suprised if there was a similar denouement of him resigning at some point before ending up co-hosting Hilton's Fox News show "The Next Revolution".

But if someone else had a convincing ideas pitch, I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson could be swayed. The only difference is he knows from the Brexit and the general election campaigns that Cummings can deliver/win.

[garbon]

The only difference is he knows from the Brexit and the general election campaigns that Cummings can deliver/win.

What elections are upcoming?

[Tamas]

What I mean is, either Cummings personally has Johnson's balls in his hand, or somebody else does and Cummings is Johnson's handler on his behalf.

[Sheilbh]

Yes, I think you made the mistake of thinking Tyr was making a racial comment (i.e. an asian could only be a token) and that's not what he meant.

I read it in the same way as Gups. The Asian guy at best has zero agency and is just a tool of "them" to cover up "their" plans, at worst it's a bit uncle Tomism and I'm not sure Tyr or I are really in a position to start that conversation.

[Tamas]

Yes, I think you made the mistake of thinking Tyr was making a racial comment (i.e. an asian could only be a token) and that's not what he meant.

I read it in the same way as Gups. The Asian guy at best has zero agency and is just a tool of "them" to cover up "their" plans, at worst it's a bit uncle Tomism and I'm not sure Tyr or I are really in a position to start that conversation.

I think a "background business interests controlling the Tories" is a far more likely reading of Tyr than racism.

[Sheilbh]

What elections are upcoming?

And the alternative is another Tory think-tanker/aide etc with ideas who hasn't won elections or referendums.

What I mean is, either Cummings personally has Johnson's balls in his hand, or somebody else does and Cummings is Johnson's handler on his behalf.

I don't think it's that conspiratorial. I think Johnson is incredibly shallow, with minimal beliefs and can't imagine what he's going to do after Brexit. Cummings has success as a political operative, a multi-hundred page manifesto on what to do and is willing to do the work.

Without Cummings I'm not sure what Johnson would be trying to do or want to do, and I don't think he knows either.

[garbon]

Yes, I think you made the mistake of thinking Tyr was making a racial comment (i.e. an asian could only be a token) and that's not what he meant.

I read it in the same way as Gups. The Asian guy at best has zero agency and is just a tool of "them" to cover up "their" plans, at worst it's a bit uncle Tomism and I'm not sure Tyr or I are really in a position to start that conversation.

I think a "background business interests controlling the Tories" is a far more likely reading of Tyr than racism.

It isn't like we've all just met each other.

[Gups]

Yes, I think you made the mistake of thinking Tyr was making a racial comment (i.e. an asian could only be a token) and that's not what he meant.

I read it in the same way as Gups. The Asian guy at best has zero agency and is just a tool of "them" to cover up "their" plans, at worst it's a bit uncle Tomism and I'm not sure Tyr or I are really in a position to start that conversation.

I think a "background business interests controlling the Tories" is a far more likely reading of Tyr than racism.

I deliberately didn't use the word racism but bias (which as we should all know by now can be unconscious). If Tyr wanted to say that Sunak would be put in power because he was attractive to big business or Cummings, he could have said so without mentioning Sunak's race. Instead, it's the only thing he mentioned. So I think it's you who is reading into his post.

In any event, it's an utterly childish analysis of how politics works and how Tories choose their leaders. If big business was in charge of the Tories we wouldn't be facing Brexit. And Cummings has exactly as much power as Johnson is prepared to give him. He's hated by 90% of Tory grandess both remainers and Brexiteers (but especially the latter).

[Josquius]

Yes, I think you made the mistake of thinking Tyr was making a racial comment (i.e. an asian could only be a token) and that's not what he meant.

I read it in the same way as Gups. The Asian guy at best has zero agency and is just a tool of "them" to cover up "their" plans, at worst it's a bit uncle Tomism and I'm not sure Tyr or I are really in a position to start that conversation.

Not a untrue reading. We've seen plenty examples of the UKIP/Brexit party (which the tories increasingly resemble), hell even the BNP iirc, pushing forward minority characters to say "Look, we aren't racist!". To some extent in the form of Patel the Tories have even flirted with this. When you're attacking immigrants having someone from a minority immigrant background is a useful defence.
The ability to use this would undoubtedly be a few points in Sunak's favour.  Especially at a time when the government is defined by anti-immigration policies and trying to tow the line between attracting racists and keeping moderate supporters.

But to say that he could only ever be a puppet leader because he is Asian is ridiculous. Of course he wants to be prime minister.  Of course he has had to/will have to work hard to get that position.
But the way he is being boosted at the moment... it really smells fishy. And given the state of the Tory party at the moment, with there being little doubt that the current PM is basically a puppet and the lack of any true statesmen who can lead the country.... Doesn't seem much of a stretch that a year or so after Brexit Johnson will be removed and a less tainted puppet put in his place in the hope of heading off  total meltdown of the party at the next election (and ensuring enough reform/damage is pushed through whilst they have control)

[Sheilbh]

In any event, it's an utterly childish analysis of how politics works and how Tories choose their leaders. If big business was in charge of the Tories we wouldn't be facing Brexit. And Cummings has exactly as much power as Johnson is prepared to give him. He's hated by 90% of Tory grandess both remainers and Brexiteers (but especially the latter).

Yeah - I mean one of Cummings most endearing traits is the open contempt he has for 90% of Tory leaver MPs who he seems to think (not incorrectly) are generally thick as mince.

But the way he is being boosted at the moment... it really smells fishy.

It smells fishy because it's competent media management which we haven't seen by anyone in politics since the Blair years

It's a bit like people in the online left who think there's some media cabal (probably Jewish, I suspect) behind Starmer getting better coverage than Corbyn - it's just he's competent at his job and has people in his team who are competent at his. It's just novel these days.

[Gups]

Not a untrue reading. We've seen plenty examples of the UKIP/Brexit party (which the tories increasingly resemble), hell even the BNP iirc, pushing forward minority characters to say "Look, we aren't racist!". To some extent in the form of Patel the Tories have even flirted with this. When you're attacking immigrants having someone from a minority immigrant background is a useful defence.
The ability to use this would undoubtedly be a few points in Sunak's favour.  Especially at a time when the government is defined by anti-immigration policies and trying to tow the line between attracting racists and keeping moderate supporters.

But to say that he could only ever be a puppet leader because he is Asian is ridiculous. Of course he wants to be prime minister.  Of course he has had to/will have to work hard to get that position.
But the way he is being boosted at the moment... it really smells fishy. And given the state of the Tory party at the moment, with there being little doubt that the current PM is basically a puppet and the lack of any true statesmen who can lead the country.... Doesn't seem much of a stretch that a year or so after Brexit Johnson will be removed and a less tainted puppet put in his place in the hope of heading off  total meltdown of the party at the next election (and ensuring enough reform/damage is pushed through whilst they have control)

So your view is that you can only be a Tory leader if you are a puppet. Who is the puppet master in this scenario? Does he also control Tory MPs and members? Was he in charge of May or did she have her own puppet master?

[Gups]

It smells fishy because it's competent media management which we haven't seen by anyone in politics since the Blair years

Cameron (or his pupper master) was pretty good at media TBF

[Josquius]

It smells fishy because it's competent media management which we haven't seen by anyone in politics since the Blair years

It's a bit like people in the online left who think there's some media cabal (probably Jewish, I suspect) behind Starmer getting better coverage than Corbyn - it's just he's competent at his job and has people in his team who are competent at his. It's just novel these days.

I haven't been paying much attention to the mainstream media lately, but I don't think thats where its coming from. As said it seems to be coming from the usual dark brexity corners of the internet. Maybe he does have some people on staff employed to engage with those groups. But its quite a different thing to standard good media management in the Starmer style. 

So your view is that you can only be a Tory leader if you are a puppet. Who is the puppet master in this scenario? Does he also control Tory MPs and members? Was he in charge of May or did she have her own puppet master?

At the moment the way things are setup I can't see there being much room for a Tory leader who is their own person. No strong figures stand out and the ERG is too powerful yet polarising.
May was a weird one, the influence over her was strong but not absolute. She was in power less because powerful groups had seen her as an excellent figurehead and more because nobody wanted the job.

[Sheilbh]

On Sunak just being competent at the media management stuff - I see he was the first minister photoed wearing a mask (coming out of Pret).

Edit: I think just a day or two after Gove was photoed (also leaving Pret) without one.

Edit: Also Number 10 had tried to get Chris Grayling installed at the head of the Intelligence and Security Committee which opposition MPs were very opposed to because Grayling is possibly the least competent individual in British public life and would owe his position to Downing St. The Committee have actually elected Julian Lewis (opposed by Downing St) and former head of the Defence Committee and, by virtue of being a human with a pulse, considerably more competent than Grayling.