Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

It really is amazing how they've steadily whittled the public down from saying no deal was just scare tactics and absolutely wouldn't happen and we'd keep the customs union and all other benefits absolutely to having so many people believe that this is what they wanted all along.

[Sheilbh]

It really is amazing how they've steadily whittled the public down from saying no deal was just scare tactics and absolutely wouldn't happen and we'd keep the customs union and all other benefits absolutely to having so many people believe that this is what they wanted all along.

Yep. I remember when "soft Brexit" was staying in the EEA and "hard Brexit" was leaving the single market. It's been an incredible exercise in goal-post moving.

I don't do much financial services work, but my understanding is they all implemented their no deal plans over the last couple of years so should be good to go. As I say, ironically given the way people voted bankers and London are, I think, fairly well prepared for no deal

[Tamas]

Incidentally, if we continue to be a relative Covid-19 hotspot, maybe the EU will not be falling over themselves to arrange cross-border travel arrangements from January that would be similar to how things were before. People are up to some rude awakenings with their Spanish holiday homes and such.

[Zanza]

Brits will at least fall under the ETIAS rules and probably need a visa after 90 days or so.

[Sheilbh]

Incidentally, if we continue to be a relative Covid-19 hotspot, maybe the EU will not be falling over themselves to arrange cross-border travel arrangements from January that would be similar to how things were before. People are up to some rude awakenings with their Spanish holiday homes and such.

I mean I think we'll be moving to the same position as the US anyway, no? In the long queues

(Well, I won't - don't have an Irish passport yet, but have citizenship).

[garbon]

Incidentally, if we continue to be a relative Covid-19 hotspot, maybe the EU will not be falling over themselves to arrange cross-border travel arrangements from January that would be similar to how things were before. People are up to some rude awakenings with their Spanish holiday homes and such.

I mean I think we'll be moving to the same position as the US anyway, no? In the long queues

(Well, I won't - don't have an Irish passport yet, but have citizenship).

I recall last year that I saw in Frankfurt that they had some passport check lanes they were creating that were like the UK ones where UK/EU and some other nations (like Canada, Japan, US, Australia, Singapore) can use as separated from the all passports lane.

I wonder what's happened with those?

[Sheilbh]

I'm skeptical they'll follow through with it.

If could be they are just saying this now so they can change their mind in exchange for some other favour from the US.
Lest we forget Johnson owes a lot to Russia too.

Maybe - no idea what Johnson owes Russia though.

But I do think it's striking and this was a major concern of mine. As a Carnegie fellow put it UK is showing some chutzpah - partnered with the EU on a global vaccine summit last month, now hosting its own (aiming to raise £4.7 billion, of which UK is contributing £1.65 billion), standing up on Hong Kong (Johnson has now clarified the offer will apply to all who are eligible for a BNO and published an article on this in the Times and South China Morning Post), rejecting Huawei and proposing a D10 (Democratic 10) coalition to build alternate 5G systems, opposing Trump's idea of inviting Russia back into the G8.

As with the opinion poll on immigration, I think there are, against all expectations, early signs/reasons for someone of my views to be optimistic on Brexit. All of that may be reversed, but it feels like I should be honest that my worst fears around Brexit don't appear to be coming true.

[Tamas]

my views to be optimistic on Brexit

Fine, but, as usual with Brexit stuff, the optimistic expectation is that with enough effort, bravery, and determination, will be able to maintain a pre-Brexit level of status. That doesn't make Brexit ok, that just proves what a terrible idea it has been.

Also, while I agree that this seems better than just being a Trump lapdog, I would point out two things: first, after the pandemic and now the protests, Trump is at his weakest ever - he'll probably recover, but still. So if there ever was a wise and safe moment to avoid looking like you just take whatever he is feeding you, it is now.

Secondly, most of this has been just posturing. Let's see what happens when it comes to action. Closest we have come to action was on the 5G stuff and that took some considerable pressure from the US before we semi-budged, as I recall.

[garbon]

my views to be optimistic on Brexit

Fine, but, as usual with Brexit stuff, the optimistic expectation is that with enough effort, bravery, and determination, will be able to maintain a pre-Brexit level of status. That doesn't make Brexit ok, that just proves what a terrible idea it has been.

Also, while I agree that this seems better than just being a Trump lapdog, I would point out two things: first, after the pandemic and now the protests, Trump is at his weakest ever - he'll probably recover, but still. So if there ever was a wise and safe moment to avoid looking like you just take whatever he is feeding you, it is now.

Secondly, most of this has been just posturing. Let's see what happens when it comes to action. Closest we have come to action was on the 5G stuff and that took some considerable pressure from the US before we semi-budged, as I recall.

Yep agree to all of that.

[Sheilbh]

Fine, but, as usual with Brexit stuff, the optimistic expectation is that with enough effort, bravery, and determination, will be able to maintain a pre-Brexit level of status. That doesn't make Brexit ok, that just proves what a terrible idea it has been.

Also, while I agree that this seems better than just being a Trump lapdog, I would point out two things: first, after the pandemic and now the protests, Trump is at his weakest ever - he'll probably recover, but still. So if there ever was a wise and safe moment to avoid looking like you just take whatever he is feeding you, it is now.

Secondly, most of this has been just posturing. Let's see what happens when it comes to action. Closest we have come to action was on the 5G stuff and that took some considerable pressure from the US before we semi-budged, as I recall.

Fair points. But I mean the pre-Brexit v post-Brexit stopped being relevant in 2016, surely? (And I think the Remainer parties' decision to try and get a second referendum v pushing for the softest possible Brexit was an enormous strategic fuck up, but there we are.)

On Trump - to be honest I was never that concerned about being a lapdog to the US. Every British PM I can think of has been accused of that at some point or other - and in fairness May and Johnson have consistently pushed back (with the other European nations) on the Paris Agreement and the Iran deal (I actually think Johnson's suggestion that we just re-sign the same Iran deal but call it the "Trump Iran deal" was pretty astute ), it just doesn't matter when Trump's in charge. I don't see that basic position changing any time soon though the rhetoric towards any particular President may vary. My bigger concern was actually that we'd be easy to manipulate by China which is something that we've seen in other American lapdogs like Canada, New Zealand and Australia. But seems to be ending.

Also I'm not sure it is entirely posturing - an offer of residence to 3 million people (though it's not been turned into legislation yet and is pending on what China does - that's still, what around 5% of the UK population) isn't just posturing, neither is £1.65 billion for an international vaccine effort. Similarly on 5G there was a lot of pressure from the US, but I think it's striking that the main shift on this happened after Hong Kong and the shift there, and covid (the UK was still proceeding with Huawei after a review and a lot of US pressure in January).

[Zanza]

'We want you back' - Boris Johnson urges EU workers to return to UK to help the economy

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-wants-eu-workers-to-return-ahead-of-brexit-1-6684193

What was the point of this again? 

[HVC]

‘We want you back’ - Boris Johnson urges EU workers to return to UK to help the economy

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/boris-johnson-wants-eu-workers-to-return-ahead-of-brexit-1-6684193

What was the point of this again? 

"Like somebody who treated their partner like shit until they left leaving a wheedling message asking for forgiveness because they don't know how the dishwasher works," noted Ted Smith.

[Sheilbh]

What was the point of this again? 

I mean if you believed the Brexiteers it was never about numbers or being anti-immigration, but about immigration levels being decided by the government - democratic control, as it were.

And I think in part the mood has already shifted on this - as I say it's something I'm quite optimistic about. The pro-European, pro-migrant wing is now vocal instead of keeping it quiet, and the pro-Brexit wing, which felt ignored and alienated, is feeling satisfied and heard. In other trends immigration used to be a top 3 issue for voters all through the 2000s and early 2010s, in the last few years it barely ever gets there - it's now like crime, welfare etc and sort of fluctuates based on the news.

Edit: eg:

[The Brain]

What was the point of this again? 

I mean if you believed the Brexiteers it was never about numbers or being anti-immigration, but about immigration levels being decided by the government - democratic control, as it were.

And I think in part the mood has already shifted on this - as I say it's something I'm quite optimistic about. The pro-European, pro-migrant wing is now vocal instead of keeping it quiet, and the pro-Brexit wing, which felt ignored and alienated, is feeling satisfied and heard. In other trends immigration used to be a top 3 issue for voters all through the 2000s and early 2010s, in the last few years it barely ever gets there - it's now like crime, welfare etc and sort of fluctuates based on the news.

Yes several years of political omnishambles and pandemics kind of pushes other stuff off the agenda temporarily.

[Tamas]

What was the point of this again? 

I mean if you believed the Brexiteers it was never about numbers or being anti-immigration, but about immigration levels being decided by the government - democratic control, as it were.

And I think in part the mood has already shifted on this - as I say it's something I'm quite optimistic about. The pro-European, pro-migrant wing is now vocal instead of keeping it quiet, and the pro-Brexit wing, which felt ignored and alienated, is feeling satisfied and heard. In other trends immigration used to be a top 3 issue for voters all through the 2000s and early 2010s, in the last few years it barely ever gets there - it's now like crime, welfare etc and sort of fluctuates based on the news.

Edit: eg:

I am yet to talk to anyone who voted Leave or told me about the reason why a family member/friend voted Leave that did not name immigration as a result.