Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

I fear in these modern times the manifesto that works is "No more bad things" written on a billboard.

Yes. Goodbye Corbyn. I really hope we manage to resist turning him into a twinkly-eyed national treasure (like Tony Benn) and instead remember the damage he did to the Labour Party and country (like Tony Benn).

In fairness I could be wrong, but I suspect there's an above average chance Corbyn goes full David Icke in the next few years.

Not thrilled at Keir, but I think he'll be competent which is a start. Though it is incredibly depressing that, yet again, the Labour Party - the party of equality - has chosen a middle-aged white man as leader; I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories elect a BAME leader before Labour choose a woman

It was quite a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation there.
Starmer was the best candidate. Its not his fault he's a middle aged white man. Its just as bad to not choose someone due to this as to choose someone due to this.

[Duque de Bragança]

Sheilbh going identity politics while Tyr is the voice of reason, with ideas being more important than identity. Wow.

[Josquius]

Aaand it starts.
Apparently the goto smear for Starmer is he is somehow connected to Jimmy Saville
I've seen a bunch of comments about by (supposedly) different people. Seems to be what the Russians (?) have decided on.

[Sheilbh]

Sheilbh going identity politics while Tyr is the voice of reason, with ideas being more important than identity. Wow.

I don't really rate Starmer either. I think he'll be a million times better than Corbyn, but he gives me vibes of one of the Milibands. And in fairness he was the front-runner - if you're the front-runner you don't need to run an ideas campaign you just need to run a "don't fuck it up" campaign, which he did very successfully.

Also he has started well - Jewish community leaders and activists have said him and Angela Rayner have already done more in the last four days than Corbyn did in his entire time as leader (for example - they've held a meeting with the Board of Deputies, Community Security Trust and Jewish Labour Movement to hear concerns about anti-semitism). Which is really good, but also highlights how unwilling Corbyn was to do the slightest thing on this issue - despite his "decades of anti-racism".

I think the most interesting candidate who was running the ideas campaign was Lisa Nandy.

Astonished to see the left splintering in response. London Young Labour have said that Starmer: "has already displayed a bizarre unwillingness to hold the government to account for its clear failings, instead opting for a congratulatory approach and a rhetoric of unity that is dangerously close to sounding concessionary."

Meanwhile Momentum have set out their strategy to basically fix the issue that they leaned into the Corbyn project's strengths too much - so they're doing great with young, urban voters but not so great with everyone else - they also talked about possibly working with the soft left. This has prompted the launch of a pressure group within Momentum, Forward Momentum, who seem to be wanting more of a purist left-slate and have that perennial obsession with "political education".

I think it is really surprising how much the Labour Left fucked up a very strong postion. I think the biggest mistake was choosing Long-Bailey over Angela Rayner as their leadership candidate because they weren't sure Rayner was loyal enough or "one of them".

[Josquius]

Sheilbh going identity politics while Tyr is the voice of reason, with ideas being more important than identity. Wow.

I've always been that way?
Incidentally what's with the rights obsession with identity politics these days?
I'm seeing that term crop up ever more of late. Its like they've stepped into a new phase after the general anti transgender stuff of recent years.

[Duque de Bragança]

Sheilbh going identity politics while Tyr is the voice of reason, with ideas being more important than identity. Wow.

I've always been that way?
Incidentally what's with the rights obsession with identity politics these days?
I'm seeing that term crop up ever more of late. Its like they've stepped into a new phase after the general anti transgender stuff of recent years.

"General anti transgender stuff" was pretty much ignored over here until recently, I'd say 2018, and a hilarious non-binary homosexual on state-owned TV but then it's part of the whole Identity Politics issues I guess.

However, the communautarisme (identity-based factionalism) part of Identity Politics, if not the whole of it, is still opposed by some on the left, though not enough I suppose.

Of course, most were used to your ramblings against Thatcher(ism), sometimes grounded, sometimes not, to be honest. 

[Syt]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52304821

IMF head calls for Brexit trade talk extension

The IMF has suggested the UK and the EU should not "add to uncertainty" from coronavirus by refusing to extend the period to negotiate a post-Brexit trade deal.

Managing director Kristalina Georgieva, when asked what she thought about the prospect of no trade deal this year and no extension to talks, told the BBC that because of the "unprecedented uncertainty" arising from the pandemic, it would be "wise not to add more on top of it".

"I really hope that all policymakers everywhere would be thinking about [reducing uncertainty]. It is tough as it is, let's not make it any tougher," she said.

Asked specifically if she would advise an extension to trade talks, Ms Georgieva said: "My advice would be to seek ways in which this element of uncertainty is reduced in the interests of everybody, the UK, the EU, and the whole world."

The IMF chief had expressed her backing for the deal struck by Boris Johnson's team last autumn, having warned then that a no-deal Brexit would hit the UK economy by up to 5%.

The UK government chose to put into law a refusal to trigger provisions to extend the Brexit implementation phase beyond the end of the year.

That means that without a deal, the UK and EU would trade on World Trade Organization terms, including significant new taxes and checks on trade, from the beginning of next year.

Number 10 says that remains the position.

Yesterday, both the UK and EU announced a curtailed timetable to carry out three negotiation rounds by video conference.

Ms Georgieva says she is now preoccupied with trying to find ways to help alleviate "a global recession we have not seen in our lifetimes", arising out of the pandemic.

The IMF chief, a former vice-president of the European Commission, also heaped praise on the UK Treasury and Bank of England's "early" and well co-ordinated economic response to the crisis.

She said: "That very strong package of measures is helping the UK, but given the UK's sizeable role in the world economy, it's actually helping everyone."

The IMF is currently hosting a virtual version of its annual meetings with world finance ministers and bankers.

[Tamas]

I guess we might as well get over the Coronavirus and Brexit recessions in one mega-dose. What could happen.

[The Brain]

Just say "WTO" and BAM no uncertainty. Problem solved.

[mongers]

I guess we might as well get over the Coronavirus and Brexit recessions in one mega-dose. What could happen.

If there's one likely crisis, short of total war that makes it sensible to pause the Brexit conclusion/negotiation it's this pandemic, but this 'administration' will not make that rational response.

I'm willing to beat a re-invigorated Johnson will this Summer come out with a hard-line on Brexit with the EU, both to sure up his own base and as a serious distraction from any political enquiry or public debate into where 'we' went wrong on Coronavirus.

[Tamas]

I guess we might as well get over the Coronavirus and Brexit recessions in one mega-dose. What could happen.

If there's one likely crisis, short of total war that makes it sensible to pause the Brexit conclusion/negotiation it's this pandemic, but this 'administration' will not make that rational response.

I'm willing to beat a re-invigorated Johnson will this Summer come out with a hard-line on Brexit with the EU, both to sure up his own base and as a serious distraction from any political enquiry or public debate into where 'we' went wrong on Coronavirus.

You are right of course but I am afraid they (especially his handler Cummings) will see the pandemic as an amazing political opportunity to push the hardest of Brexits through, since any and all hardships can be blamed on the pandemic instead of Brexit itself.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. I mean the UK government wants either: minimal just a trade deal; or no deal. So their baseline position before this virus was a very hard Brexit; or the hardest Brexit. I don't think this necessarily changes anything on that. They were already taking the most hard-line approach, I can't see them coming out of this and saying actually we need to soften that.

Apparently the government are still thinking that there's no need to extend because it's a question of whether there's likely to be a deal at all or not. Which I think means basically at the minute the UK and EU aren't even on the same page: the UK wants a trade deal only, the EU wants a framework agreement with multiple parts. So presumably their view is if, by June, the two sides can't even agree on what type of deal they want to negotiate there's not much point in extending because that might be helpful if the negotiation of terms just needs more time but this is more fundamental.

I sort of get their point, but also feel that it's probably worth not deliberately piling on multiple shocks to the economy at once

Also we all laughed at their comments on supply chains and on-shoring and 3d printing - and it was right to laugh because it was crazy. But we have no had an external shock event that I think we will globally cause a thickening of supply chains and more on-shoring.

[Tamas]

Yeah. I mean the UK government wants either: minimal just a trade deal; or no deal. So their baseline position before this virus was a very hard Brexit; or the hardest Brexit. I don't think this necessarily changes anything on that. They were already taking the most hard-line approach, I can't see them coming out of this and saying actually we need to soften that.

Apparently the government are still thinking that there's no need to extend because it's a question of whether there's likely to be a deal at all or not. Which I think means basically at the minute the UK and EU aren't even on the same page: the UK wants a trade deal only, the EU wants a framework agreement with multiple parts. So presumably their view is if, by June, the two sides can't even agree on what type of deal they want to negotiate there's not much point in extending because that might be helpful if the negotiation of terms just needs more time but this is more fundamental.

I sort of get their point, but also feel that it's probably worth not deliberately piling on multiple shocks to the economy at once

Also we all laughed at their comments on supply chains and on-shoring and 3d printing - and it was right to laugh because it was crazy. But we have no had an external shock event that I think we will globally cause a thickening of supply chains and more on-shoring.

My main problem is that there are more at stake than tariffs on Dyson's overseas trade because of evil EU. There are countless everyday things currently governed or affected by EU laws and regulations. These need to be looked at and re-defined individually.  And I don't want that to be done hastily by the behavioral science wunderteam

[Josquius]

On-shoring of many supply chains just isn't economical.
As I always repeat, there's 2 companies in the world making brakes for 90% of cars. Other minor car bits are similar.  If its a question of all these parts builders having to set up factories in the UK or the assembly plants in the UK moving to Europe, then the smart answer is clearly to get out of Britain.

And yep to what Tamas says. The amount of red tape that brexit will create is absolutely immense. And to try and get it all done in 5 minutes over tea....

I really do fear they're very keen to combine brexit with corona in the hope it nicely masks how bloody awful their brexit policy is. Hell, to put my conspiracy hat on for a second, Johnson is an absolute genius for how awfully he has handled corona thus ensuring the UK will be the worst hit in Europe by it.

[The Brain]

Luckily Brexit has been several years in the making so all details have already been considered and decisions made.