Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Maladict]

Time for the Scots to leave this shitfest.

[Josquius]

Were  the anti-semitism charges just poltical bullshit, or is there a real there there?

Theres an issue, but the media has blown it up out of all proportion to present Labour as the racist party.
Corbyn has handled it terribly too...but he at least tried to handle it. Unlike Johnson who actively encouraged the racism on the other side,

How much of Labour's drubbing due to its Brexit wishy-washiness and how much due to Corbyn being Corbyn? This has to be the end of him, for sure?

Its due to Corbyn rather than brexit. Though if not for brexit Labour could have secured a few more seats it wasn't the deciding issue.
Corbyn isn't very good and the media has absolutely savaged him, which due to his not being very good he hasn't been able to handle.
Its the end of Corbyn for sure. We just have to hope the right conclusions are drawn from this and we don't get Labour turning full neo-Blairite, that would prove just as unelectable.
The best path for Labour IMO is to largely stay where they are in the middle of the left, but to elect a leader from more to the right of the party. That way they can sell their policies effectively whilst having decent protection against the screaming that a vote for Labour is a vote for a dangerous communist dictator.
As much as appealing to people's morality and hope for a better world doesn't work these days, an unholy alliance of the selfish poor and progressives may be workable.

[Josquius]

So... How many days a year would one have to be resident in Scotland to count that as ones official address?

[Tamas]

Couple of points, Tyr:

First of all the Labour manifesto was not middle-left. Nationalising vast tracts of the national economy, and strongly hinting at further nationalisations to come is VERY far left, and I am fairly certain most people found it a step (or five) too far.

Secondly, I've just read an Economist article that in general agrees with you that trying to show this as the necessary return of the Londonite centrist Labour would be a folly, and it is highly likely that a Corbyn/McDonnel protege will take over the party, who will have their economics but not Corbyn's appalling record on cuddling terrorists.

[mongers]

Johnson's sister, Rachel, who doesn't share his politics, was on the lastnight's CH4 coverage with a mix of comedians and politicians, she had some interesting things to say, but sadly was drowned out a bit.

One of which was "Brexit is just chapter one in the remaking of the British state".  And twice she implicitly criticised the maligned influence of Dominic Cummings; given she's still close to her brother, that probably means she's seen from the inside the access and heavy influence he has on her politically malleable brother.

[Valmy]

There is something hilariously infuriating about gaining 4.5% vote share and yet only winning fewer seats than before.

Ah well. That is being a third party for you.

[Josquius]

Couple of points, Tyr:

First of all the Labour manifesto was not middle-left. Nationalising vast tracts of the national economy, and strongly hinting at further nationalisations to come is VERY far left, and I am fairly certain most people found it a step (or five) too far.

It really wasn't though.
It presented nothing that isn't already bog standard elsewhere in Europe.
Because Corbyn is from the far left however the media was very succesful in their screams of "Oh my god Venezuela!"

Agreed however that it was a step too far in places. Rather than concentrating on a few key vote winners they just kept throwing stuff out there, which did nothing to convince those who were already onside and just added to the scare tactics of their opponents.

Secondly, I've just read an Economist article that in general agrees with you that trying to show this as the necessary return of the Londonite centrist Labour would be a folly, and it is highly likely that a Corbyn/McDonnel protege will take over the party, who will have their economics but not Corbyn's appalling record on cuddling terrorists.

I'm crossing my fingers for Keir Starmer. Friendly with Corbyn and the left wing but not of the left himself. Plus he's absolutely the perfect person to rip to shreds the coming brexit disaster.

[Legbiter]

Fishing.

Makes sense. The Conservatives have merely borrowed the working classes votes in these places that have been Labour since the Precambrian. Corbyn ran on the same barmy stalinism in 2017 and made gains but was adament about Brexit. Now they were perceived by their voters to be trying to have it both ways and it obviously hurt them bigly.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Can we please have Brexit now? I don't want Johnson stinking up the EU.

the eu will do that on it's own anyway.
Anyway: the Brits are abandoning their duty: being a foil for the french.

[alfred russel]

An epically unpopular prime minister calls for an unpopular early election betting that the opposition is hated even more, and wins in a historic landslide...

Democracy seems to be broken. 

[Valmy]

the eu will do that on it's own anyway.

Only because they located their administrative center in a city full of Flems!

Anyway: the Brits are abandoning their duty: being a foil for the french.

Now that the French are friends with the Germans they don't need the Brits anymore.

[mongers]

An epically unpopular prime minister calls for an unpopular early election betting that the opposition is hated even more, and wins in a historic landslide...

Democracy seems to be broken. 

Indeed two of the worst candidates every, but they both so happened to opponents in the same election.

You guys over there are really going to have to pull your socks up if you're going to manage to find someone nearly as bad as trump.

Otherwise us Brits have now taken a commanding lead in this race to the bottom*



* historic shit-storm etc.

[Sheilbh]

I'm crossing my fingers for Keir Starmer. Friendly with Corbyn and the left wing but not of the left himself. Plus he's absolutely the perfect person to rip to shreds the coming brexit disaster.

I'm not convinced that, if you want a non-London Labour, the best candidate is Sir Keir Starmer QC of Holborn and St Pancras.

I'm not sure what the answer is. The strategic challenges are huge. How do you win without Scotland? How do you build a national offer that relies on traditional working class strongholds, plus high-earning progressives, plus students, plust ethnic minorities? Brexit is a small example of this but there's loads of issues where those groups don't really have much in common. What is the future Labour coalition that is capable of winning a majority in England and Wales?

For me - I like Jess Philips and I like Angela Rayner at the minute. But I've no idea what a future Labour government looks like.

With the nationalisations there's lots of support for those policies. But, as someone on the liberal left, that's not necessarily the gold standard. The party that would win, based on popular politics is the: hang the paedos, fund the NHS party. Nationalised utilities and well-funded public services are very popular, but so is huge cuts to immigration, cuts to benefits, bringing back the death penalty and a "tougher" justice system. So saying individual Labour policies are more popular is true. But it's like individual UKIP policies were popular. The party leadership may have made that toxic (like with UKIP) for chunks of voters.

Makes sense. The Conservatives have merely borrowed the working classes votes in these places that have been Labour since the Precambrian. Corbyn ran on the same barmy stalinism in 2017 and made gains but was adament about Brexit. Now they were perceived by their voters to be trying to have it both ways and it obviously hurt them bigly.

I think this is wrong. I don't think Brexit positions have much to do with it (on the Labour side) - even in Leave seats in 2017 and 2019, most Labour voters voted remain. I say it all the time but it's important - there are more Tory-voting Remainers than Labour-voting leavers.

Corbyn in 2017 ran on re-heated Milibandism. It was the 2015 manifesto with passion. They ran on a far more left-wing platform this year.

Corbyn in 2017 had issues with anti-semitism, with his support for the IRA etc - but was new to lots of people. The last two years have seen those issues come more to the fore, the Jewish Chronicle has reported and campaigned on this, other examples from the past have been unearthed - and he wasn't new. So people were less inclined to give him a look.

The Tories in 2017 ran on Brexit. But their argument was give me a majority to strengthen my negotiating hand so I can get a good Brexit deal. Johnson's argument was, give me a majority so I can pass this Brexit deal - I think this also really hurt the Lib Dems. Tory Remainers maybe would vote Lib Dem if the alternative is no deal (ie October), if the alternative is a deal that's a bigger jump (ie December).

Similarly the Tories in 2017 said we want to talk about more than Brexit and had detailed policies, so it became a Brexit election and a social care election, and an NHS funding election. The Tories in 2019 said we want to talk about more than Brexit - and after this election we will.

Now that the French are friends with the Germans they don't need the Brits anymore.

The French aren't that friendly with the Germans right now

I do think the lack of European care about the geo-politics of Brexit is extraordinary. But I think the European lack of concern with geo-politics is in general extraordinary. So it's not surprising.

ETA on Scottish independence?

Yeah. We are about to move to a new stage of our constitutional crisis - and needless to say I would be a full-blown Yes campaigner and voter now.

The SNP had someone on the BBC last night who made a very interesting point that we don't know the constitutional arrangements for the next stage of Brexit/trade negotiations. Because it's going to touch on lots of fully devolved matters such as agriculture, fisheries, economic development, environment, health and safety etc. And legally there's no hierarchy of Parliaments. So it's not clear how the UK government will be engaging with the Scottish Parliament (or the Welsh Assembly on certain issues and Stormont if it ever exists).

[Legbiter]

I don't think Brexit positions have much to do with it (on the Labour side) - even in Leave seats in 2017 and 2019, most Labour voters voted remain. I say it all the time but it's important - there are more Tory-voting Remainers than Labour-voting leavers.

It is striking though, all those old mining towns voting Tory, they voted overwhelmingly for Brexit like Newcastle under Lyme, Labour since 1919 went 62% for Leave, Grimsby Labour since 1945, votes Conservative. Brexit result: 72% Leave. Don Valley constituency, Labour since 1922, votes Conservative. Brexit result: 69% Leave.

Of course Corbyn is Corbyn but he did threaten to hold another referendum after yet another round of wrangling with the EU and it was enough to trash Labour completely. Today they're a working class party minus the working class.

[Sheilbh]

Sure it played a role. But the point I'm making is that even in seats that voted leave, the majority of the Labour vote was remainer. And I just don't think Brexit explains this swing - from today's Times:


I am still delighted that South Shields is the only constituency created in the Great Reform Act to never return a Tory

Edit: Incidentally now seen the first conspiracy theory that Blair and New Labour are behind the failure of Corbyn