Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

There's a new MRP in 15 minutes - so we'll see!

Interesting figures on tactical voters:
[

I sympathise

If you want to both stop the Conservatives for a whole range of reasons and one of them is you want to remain, those poll questions may be a bit confusing.

Yes. Yougov have a habit of doing this. Proclaiming grand conclusions that don't really line up. You really have to read their questions carefully often.

Their brexit plan is utterly horrific but then so is everything else.

[Sheilbh]

If you want to both stop the Conservatives for a whole range of reasons and one of them is you want to remain, those poll questions may be a bit confusing.

I don't know. "Which of the following best reflects" your reasons for tactically voting - I'm in number 1 if tactical voting made any difference here, probably, but Brexit sort of matters too. It's just less important than generally voting for the anti-Tory candidate.

And it also needs to cover people who'll be tactically voting against Corbyn or the SNP. I don't think anyone tactically votes against the Lib Dems

Speaking of which two Lib Dem candidates have encouraged people to vote Labour in their seats as they think they have the best chance.

[Sheilbh]

So the polls on election eve have the gap between the party somewhere between 12 and 5%

But basically Tories are somewhere between 40-45% and Labour are between 30-35%. Or as several people have put it, we're an average polling error away from a hung parliament to a very large Tory majority

[crazy canuck]

With added uncertainty created by what will be more than usual strategic voting.


Languish nerd comment - shouldn't that be "tactical" voting 

[Sheilbh]

Well yeah. Stephen Bush made the interesting observation that in 2017 the political parties and the journalists had covered them had decided the election was largely about people who voted Labour in 2015 and Leave in 2016. And to an extent it was, a lot of them went Tory.

But there were all these other people who turned up: previous non-voters, first-time referendum voters (remain and leave) and 2015 Tory, 2016 Remain voters. Those groups often broke Labour in larger numbers than expected.

So the story and strategy was right, but it wasn't enough. This is why I still (and I could be totally wrong) thing Johnson won't win - it seems like a "one more push" strategy. One more go and they'll break out on the basis of Labour-Leave-Labour voters. But there could be some other group that we've not been talking about that breaks more decisively one way or the other.

Or as Bush put it: "It turns out that if you approach the election from the perspective of "let's go round asking everyone if they like vanilla ice cream" and you use that to conclude they hate pudding, you get a shock when they turn out to be really into yoghurt."

[Richard Hakluyt]

My hope is that more of the "young" (up to 40 these days it seems) will vote this time round. A high turnout is a good thing in itself of course, but the young are also decisively anti-tory.

[Legbiter]

I'll be keeping an eye on Grimsby.

[Tamas]

I am going to laugh out in desperation when tomorrow we wake up to a Parliament in practice unchanged from the previous one.

[Josquius]

My hope is that more of the "young" (up to 40 these days it seems) will vote this time round. A high turnout is a good thing in itself of course, but the young are also decisively anti-tory.

I also hope they vote smart. The greens are running in a lot more seats than usual.....

I am going to laugh out in desperation when tomorrow we wake up to a Parliament in practice unchanged from the previous one.

Thats what we're all hoping for no?

[Tamas]

I am going to laugh out in desperation when tomorrow we wake up to a Parliament in practice unchanged from the previous one.

Thats what we're all hoping for no?

I guess, yes. But it would mean that a third expansion to the Brexit deadline is coming and I am not sure Europe will grant it.

Then again, as you say, what else is there? A LibDem victory is impossible, a Labour win would mean going Venezuela and hoping the 25 times this experiment have failed in the past were all flukes, and a Tory victory would mean... well, nobody knows, because the only honest thing you can see or hear from Johnson, is his deer-caught-in-the-headlights eyes when he has to talk to a camera.

Whatever happens, calm will not return. With Labour there'll be immediate upheaval and recession, and then in 5-10 years we'll think back to their first 100 days as a golden age of prosperity.

With a big Tory win it may be similar if Johnson turns out to be an agent of no-deal chancers as in that case he'd just toss the deal  and go all Farage on everyone.

The least initial upheaval would come from a big Tory majority and Johnson turning out to be a moderate. This case the deal gets passed and we enter a lull of 7 years of negotiation, but in this case we have the second Scottish referendum to look forward to, all the while the media will continue to give continuous airtime to the leader of a fringe party so small not even having run in the whole country during the election (Farage), who will be beating the drums of a supposed betrayal.

[Agelastus]

Voted at 9.20 this morning.

Light rain, light to no wind, no frost although some slippy leaves around - should not affect the turnout in my area as that's pretty much the forecast and conditions for the day around here.

Now, while I normally vote in the morning I do so at different times - so even anecdotally my experience is fairly meaningless.

However -

(a) It felt busier than 2017 or 2016; I had to queue behind 3 or 4 other voters in my section (of course, the other sections were emptier so this may just have been timing.)

(b) People were coming out from voting and going to the bus-stop to catch a bus rather than going straight home; I haven't specifically noticed this in the past - and may indicate people voting before work or shopping who normally wouldn't.

(c) No sign of anyone under 30 voting except, possibly, for one mother and young child I passed about a street away from the polling station - of course, given the demographics of the town I live in, this is not surprising.

(d) My polling station has two rooms and 3 voting sections - for the first time ever the two sections in the larger room had been segregated by a row of strapped together chairs. It could mean a new person being in charge of the polling station - or it could be a sign they wanted to make sure the queuing system for the booths didn't break down later (each section, of course, should have a roughly equivalent number of people on the electoral register.)

[Josquius]

Best case would be a labour-snp-lib dem coalition. Sensible brexit deal and referendum organised, maybe we get a few of the reforms Labour wants and possibly some of the democratic reforms the lib dems want. A second Scottish referendum could happen but hopefully after Europe is sorted so we know where we all stand.

[Tamas]

Best case would be a labour-snp-lib dem coalition. Sensible brexit deal and referendum organised, maybe we get a few of the reforms Labour wants and possibly some of the democratic reforms the lib dems want. A second Scottish referendum could happen but hopefully after Europe is sorted so we know where we all stand.

Fair enough, but I am continued to be aghast at the casual naturality you Brits here consider the prospect of subsequent Scottish referendums.

Makes me think the UK won't survive past 2025-2030.

[Agelastus]

Best case would be a labour-snp-lib dem coalition. Sensible brexit deal and referendum organised, maybe we get a few of the reforms Labour wants and possibly some of the democratic reforms the lib dems want. A second Scottish referendum could happen but hopefully after Europe is sorted so we know where we all stand.

Fair enough, but I am continued to be aghast at the casual naturality you Brits here consider the prospect of subsequent Scottish referendums.

Makes me think the UK won't survive past 2025-2030.

Please don't include me in "you Brits"; I've always held the position that a referendum should settle an issue for at least a generation and should not be repeated within a few years. Posted on Languish to that effect long before there was even a prospect of a referendum on EU membership in the UK.

Of course, I've always been politely excoriated and rubbished by the rest of Languish for holding that position, both from European posters and those across the Atlantic.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The trouble with the UK is that it is for building Empire, fighting wars and repressing Catholics. These are not in vogue at the moment so being English or Scottish becomes a more important part of a person's identity.

The best thing about it nowadays is that it is an easier identity for immigrants and their descendants to adopt.