Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

As Yi mentioned, last week or so The Economist had a very good article on how capturing stuff by activists is probably EXACTLY what Labour intends. That's how the far left has captured the party, and they aim to replicate this with the country as a whole.

The Lib Dems will stop them and the Tories and start a meteoric rise to power...any day now. I am sure. Very soon.

[Sheilbh]

There's a new MRP in 15 minutes - so we'll see!

Interesting figures on tactical voters:


I sympathise

[Sheilbh]

New MRP! Labour catching up from the previous one. Latest prediction:


Projected Tory majority of 28, last round predicted a Tory majority of 68.

I'm sure Valmy will be thrilled to hear they're projecting the Lib Dems will gain another 3 seats (taking their total new seats up to 5!).

Edit: Also it looks like it might be very tight in Dominic Raab's constituency

And really if the Tory party isn't for Esher and Walton - what are they for?

This is one of those stockbroker belt seats that the Lib Dems may either win or build as a new base of close seconds (the traditional Lib Dem strategy of get council seats, build up a body of support to get to second place so you can do the "only us can beat x here", then breakthrough). In 2016 the Tories got 58% of the vote and the Lib Dems got 17%, there's been local whispering for a while but the MRP currently predicts the Tories are on 44% and Lib Dems on 42%.

[Valmy]

I was hoping for more like 300 

[Sheilbh]

All joking aside if I was the Tories I'd be worried about the Lib Dems getting a long-term foothold in areas like Surrey and the traditional blue wall.

The Lib Dems are like Japanese knotweed. Once they have any type of presence in an area they are very difficult to entirely get rid of, and when Labour have a less objectionable leader and soft Tories aren't afraid of a Labour government, lots of those seats might suddenly swing Lib Dem (like 1997-2015).

[Josquius]

Fingers crossed enough liberals are sensible enough to not fall for the corbyn is the devil stuff and see even a labour majority (which isn't happening) as better than Johnson having his way.

I've read Labour are putting up a huge challenge in Johnsons own seat. The lib dems playing tactic there could be the decider. Would be wonderful to see him lose even if the tories win overall

[Richard Hakluyt]

A big factor, I think, will be how many people decide that they can't be arsed to vote for Johnson/Corbyn and stay at home instead. We have a range from hung parliament to 100 tory majority, plus the hope of upsets to senior tories.

As for the future of the Tories; Johnson thinks tactically rather than strategically..........in the long run one hopes that the party will be shattered if it obtains a Pyrrhic victory on thursday.

[Josquius]

It does seem to be heading that way. They're going all in to chase racist old boomers and completely wrecking their reputation with the young and educated in the process.
Traditionally people do have short memories. After thatcher you'd think the tories should have just stopped running in the north.
But in modern times with mainstream media having a utterly lopsided customer pyramid and  the Internet keeping everything alive, it won't be so easy for the tories to step away this time.
Then of course there's the factor that brexit is going to be pinned on them. Just look at how these days everyone in the country always thought Iraq was a bad idea....

[Tamas]

Johnson flees into an industrial fridge from being interviewed live on ITV (a very pro-Tory TV station).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lp9XoiFbZcI

[Iormlund]

 

[Sheilbh]

And that's his press secretary saying "oh for fucks sake"

We are just The Thick Of It now

Don't think ITV is pro-Tory. Lorraine Kelly has been absolutely bodying various Tories this year. She's had a higher hit rate than Andrew Neil.

[Sheilbh]

Also this reminds me of the time Ken Livingstone his in the disabled toilets while journalists asked him if he agreed with Hitler

Edit: One other point - I love the British press going all Frankie Howerd when someone swears. "Oooooh!"

[Richard Hakluyt]

"OMG!!! The press! Run away?! Run away!"  would be the correct bowdlerisation of what he said I think.

[crazy canuck]

There's a new MRP in 15 minutes - so we'll see!

Interesting figures on tactical voters:


I sympathise

If you want to both stop the Conservatives for a whole range of reasons and one of them is you want to remain, those poll questions may be a bit confusing.

[Iormlund]

"OMG!!! The press! Run away?! Run away!"  would be the correct bowdlerisation of what he said I think.

Brave Sir Boris ran away ...