Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[dps]

Actually, for all the political chaos and theater, distinctly negative results have not happened.

That a fact? I mean nothing has technically changed yet so why would they?

I was responding to CC's question to the 7 brits who voted to leave if they still felt that way...I'm not sure anything has happened that would really change a lot of people's minds.

I agree with this to an extent. The difference between remainers and leavers on brexit is primarily cultural and political, not economic. I'm a remainer because I'm in favour of the European project, any adverse economic consequences just rub salt into the wound. For the leavers any adverse economic consequences are a necessary price to leave the much-hated European project.

As ever there are 20% of people in the middle who are persuadable one way or the other.

By trying to terrify leavers with economic arguments remainers are missing the point. Far better to stress the extent to which we would still adhere to EU rules after brexit, the smallness of the EU bureaucracy, the smallness of the EU budget .........and so on.

I think that you nailed it.  Sure, in many situations, James Carville is right ("It's the economy, stupid") but thinking that voters are always voting just for their own economic benefit ignores a lot of other stuff.

[Duque de Bragança]

I wonder if the 7 British Languishites who voted leave still think that was a good idea.

At least, they had one more vote than the  "other European" wanting the UK to leave. 

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/feb/18/several-labour-mps-set-to-quit-the-party-politics-live

Labour split: seven MPs resign from the party

That's it from the press conference. Seven MPs have left the Labour party and announced they will form a new independent group in parliament. They said they were disgusted by the party's handling of anti-semitism and its Brexit policy. People have speculated that this might happen ever since Corbyn's 2015 leadership win and now it finally has.

The MPs are –

Chuka Umunna, MP for Streatham and former shadow business secretary.

Luciana Berger, MP for Liverpool Wavertree and former shadow minister for mental health.

Gavin Shuker, MP for Luton South and former shadow international development minister.

Angela Smith, MP for Penistone and Stocksbridge and former shadow deputy leader of the House of Commons.
Chris Leslie, MP Nottingham East and former shadow chancellor.

Mike Gapes, MP for Ilford South and former chair of the foreign affairs select committee.

Ann Coffey, MP for Stockport and former parliamentary private secretary to Alistair Darling when he was chancellor of the exchequer.

The group is not yet a political party, although they said at the press conference earlier that they could develop into one over time. They will have their first formal meeting in the next few days to assign roles and responsibilities.

[Tamas]

meh

[Grey Fox]

I wonder if the 7 British Languishites who voted leave still think that was a good idea.

I voted British Leave because I failed to notice the ROTW at the bottom. So there's only 6 of them.

[celedhring]

Wasn't aware the anti-semitism issue was so serious.

[Agelastus]

I wonder if the 7 British Languishites who voted leave still think that was a good idea.

I voted British Leave because I failed to notice the ROTW at the bottom. So there's only 6 of them.

Apparently 5, given Iormlund said much the same thing above.

Which is, to be frank, still more pro-Brexit British Languishites than I would have expected - either it is more voting errors on the part of the regulars or we have a couple of lurkers.

And no, I haven't changed my mind; I was always expecting an economic shock and I've made it clear in the past that my motives for voting to leave were based on the political implications of Europe, not the economic. I am, however, less convinced that the medium term will be as reasonable in economic terms as I had previously stated (I believe I replied to Garbon (?) previously that I believed we would be short-term bad, medium term OK, long term good.)

I'm also disturbed that our government appears not to have been preparing for a potential no-deal Brexit for the last 2 years instead of, as it appears, the last 3 months (take the ferry company contracts, for example - what isn't being mentioned concerning the one that has now been cancelled is that the port in question needs dredging to allow the ferries to dock.)

May's deal is the only deal available, so our "esteemed" members of parliament should get their heads out of their arses and vote it through if they don't want to risk a "no deal". At the moment most of them sound like they are in "la-la land", regardless of if they are pro-leave or pro-remain (or somewhere in between, as Corbyn tries to be.)

This is not to say that I am not deeply concerned regarding the "backstop"; it's rather difficult to see what "alternative arrangements" to keep the border open could be arranged in the future that have not already been discussed and discarded over the last 2 or so years. However, at this stage of the leave process, it is time for Brexit etc. MPs to realise that they are facing a "Curzon" moment and accept necessity.

---------------

And Raz, you were on Kapland? I didn't remember that.

[Agelastus]

I wonder if the 7 British Languishites who voted leave still think that was a good idea.

Great point.  Any takers?

Angulutus (?sp) thingy was one, but he only occasionally drive-by posts now.

I've been a drive-by poster for years.

I may even have missed one of the moves due to not posting or browsing for a couple of years once.

[The Larch]

Wasn't aware the anti-semitism issue was so serious.

Neither did I. Can somebody enlighten us on it? It seemed some kind of absurd internal hair splitting, not something to leave the party about.

[Tamas]

Wasn't aware the anti-semitism issue was so serious.

Neither did I. Can somebody enlighten us on it? It seemed some kind of absurd internal hair splitting, not something to leave the party about.

It's a long list of individually small incidents, but they add up to a pretty gross overall picture.

One of the "separatist" MPs, a lady from Liverpool IIRC had the misfortune of being a Corbyn critique AND of Jewish origin. Her harrasment from within the party has been constant.

[Threviel]

I heard on the radio that Honda will be closing down its British factory in 2022. 3500 employees in the factory alone.

Well, good for me, we like Honda and I would not like to pay 10% more if I were to buy a new one. Now that they have a free trade deal we might be getting Japan-produced Hondas instead, that would be great.

[The Minsky Moment]

Japanese produced Hondas still have to be shipped to Europe. Shipping costs are low historically but it is still not a trivial matter to send a couple tons of metal and plastic across an ocean and move it through port and customs.

[Threviel]

According to https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47282603 it doesn't seem to be directly brexit related. The factory is already struggling with low demand as is. So an expensive factory that does not produce att full speed coupled with brexit is probably more expensive than sea transport from Japan.

[Iormlund]

Honda also has a factory in Gebze (Turkey). Given the resources automotive companies have poured into Turkey I'm assuming their cars are included in the Turkish-EU arrangements. It's a pretty good place to shift investments to since there's plenty of infrastructure in the area already (we have a plant there for example).

[mongers]

Outside the Swindon factory this afternoon, a reporter stopping and interviewing workers.

Reporter: "So you're pretty hacked off today"

Worker:

"Yeah, Yeah I mean the government's completely incompetent handling of the [whole thing] * doesn't help either, does it.

What are we, 44 days away from Brexit and they haven't got a clue.

They can't even decide for themselves what Brexit means.

This is idiocy of epic proportions"

Reporter: "And how long have you worked at this factory?"

Worker: "24 years"



* Indistinct recording, my guess