Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

Brittany not being more involved with Britain is somewhat surprising.

Maybe the Bretons hold a very long grudge about being thrown out of Britain during the Dark Ages?

[Zanza]

As my hometown Stuttgart is mentioned in Syt's map: it is the centre of Germany's automotive industry (Mercedes, Porsche, Bosch, ...), so it is affected by Brexit. Between the Diesel crisis, WLTP, restructuring towards electric poweertrains, weakening demand in China and North America and the effects of Trumps trade war it will be hard to notice a Brexit specific effect. The industry had ten fat years after the crisis in 2008/2009, but that is coming to an end. However, unemployment here is like 2-3%, so the region can cope with a limited downturn.
What will not happen though is German automotive companies trying to influence Berlin or Brussels towards any more UK-friendly policy. They need the Single Market for their supply chains and don't mind weakening e.g. JLR either.

[Josquius]

As expected the brexiters are delighted at this news seeing as proof Germany needs us and will imminently surrender.
Ja.
They've no problem with facts that support their narrative it seems. Even when they're on the same page as facts they completely reject as unbritish.

[Valmy]

As expected the brexiters are delighted at this news seeing as proof Germany needs us and will imminently surrender.

Really? The news is that the British need Europe far more than any European country needs Britain. That seems like a weak position to me.

[The Larch]

I'm curious about why my region is not at least slightly shaded, one would think that due to fisheries alone it'd warrant at the very least a faint shading. Guess there's not *that* much money on it anymore.

[celedhring]

I'm curious about why my region is not at least slightly shaded, one would think that due to fisheries alone it'd warrant at the very least a faint shading. Guess there's not *that* much money on it anymore.

Wouldn't surprise me if that graphic just looked at trade.

Our exports to the UK are well under 2% of our total so it makes sense that just a few regions get highlighted.

[mongers]

Krishnan Guru-Murthy
@krishgm    6h

I know it's Monday morning and you're possibly already a bit grumpy but if the choice at the next election is between Boris Johnson/Jacob Rees Mogg and Jeremy Corbyn/John McDonnell how are you feeling about that?

[Valmy]

I feel that I will send my moral support to the Liberal Democrats ever more intensely than before 

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm curious about why my region is not at least slightly shaded, one would think that due to fisheries alone it'd warrant at the very least a faint shading. Guess there's not *that* much money on it anymore.

Wouldn't surprise me if that graphic just looked at trade.

Our exports to the UK are well under 2% of our total so it makes sense that just a few regions get highlighted.

I agree with the general point the map makes but I'm a bit surprised at some of the results. My household gets through vast quantities of Spanish fruit and vegetables for example; and surely the Costas will suffer (at least economically, not culturally of course) if Britain suffers currency weakening and a deep recession?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Here is an example of what I'm talking about, conveniently appearing in today's Guardian :

https://www.google.com/search?q=huelva&oq=huelva&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1855j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

So, that is 250m euros just for soft fruit exports to the UK from Huelva province; the province has a population of only 500k........this has to be a big deal for them.

[The Larch]

I'm curious about why my region is not at least slightly shaded, one would think that due to fisheries alone it'd warrant at the very least a faint shading. Guess there's not *that* much money on it anymore.

Wouldn't surprise me if that graphic just looked at trade.

Our exports to the UK are well under 2% of our total so it makes sense that just a few regions get highlighted.

I agree with the general point the map makes but I'm a bit surprised at some of the results. My household gets through vast quantities of Spanish fruit and vegetables for example; and surely the Costas will suffer (at least economically, not culturally of course) if Britain suffers currency weakening and a deep recession?

Yeah, the agricultural sector in the South and South East of Spain will surely take a hit, as most of what they produce is for exporting, and the UK is one of their main markets, but I'm not sure if the volume would be high enough to register, as they're not exactly high value products, we're not talking about cars here exactly. I'm sure that the people doing that international trading have been active during the last year or so looking for alternative markets in the short term if the UK one falls through, I guess it's good news for German/Dutch/Scandi shoppers, as that'd surely mean cheaper/more produce for them.

As for the Costas, I guess that retirees there are already suffering from the weaker pound, but the key thing for them is if, in case of a Hard Brexit, the intra EU arrangements for healthcare of foreign nationals are kept or disbanded for Brits, as they rely on having free healthcare in Spain, and I believe that arrangement is at risk of being cancelled. Somebody at the Spanish OT at Paradox shared a clip from a UK news show that sent a journalist to cover the topic at UK retiree communities in the Costas. It was pretty ironic to listen to some of those blokes totting the "We need to regain our sovereignty and manage our own borders" leaver line, only to right afterwards talk about how they just sold everything back in England to go to live in Mediterranean Spain because it's so much nicer there. There's a part in which the journo attends a meeting of the British ambassador to Spain with some of those communities to inform them about Brexit, and during a short interview in which the topic of healthcare is brought up the ambassador mentions that it'll be up to Spain to defend the interests of those retirees after Brexit. I believe that the facepalms in the background are pretty audible in the clip.

[The Larch]

Here is an example of what I'm talking about, conveniently appearing in today's Guardian :

https://www.google.com/search?q=huelva&oq=huelva&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l5.1855j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

So, that is 250m euros just for soft fruit exports to the UK from Huelva province; the province has a population of only 500k........this has to be a big deal for them.

At the province of Huelva and Almería for sure, but those are two smaller provinces in the most populated region of Spain, so impact might not be that hard in Andalucía as a whole, if that's how they calculated the impact. Local communities will be affected for sure, whole regions I really doubt it.

[Maladict]

I wasn't aware Brits ate fruit.

[Tamas]

Andrea Leadsom, who has the honour to be a far more sinister and useless female member of government than Theresa May, has basically confirmed in a TV interview that the government may very well delay the final Brexit vote until just before the 29th of March.

To reinforce that, report is that today's cabinet meeting was record short with no mention of Brexit.

[mongers]

Andrea Leadsom, who has the honour to be a far more sinister and useless female member of government than Theresa May, has basically confirmed in a TV interview that the government may very well delay the final Brexit vote until just before the 29th of March.

To reinforce that, report is that today's cabinet meeting was record short with no mention of Brexit.

Though importantly they did discuss fly-tipping and food waste.