Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

Barnier helpfully put the leave options on a single slide a year or so back :

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf

The only worthwhile referendum would be if the governement opted for one of these options and ran it against remain.

To be fair, the Canada option in that slide deck does not show that the EU would additionally demand an Irish backstop - which they would probably demand in most of the scenarios shown on that slide.

[Threviel]

We already had polls on the best and worst British Prime ministers.

http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,15452.0.html

http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,15450.0.html

I was not really interested in who's the best. My line of thinking was that, if we are to say that May and Cameron and Corbyn (I know, not prime minister) and whoever are bad (or potentially bad) prime ministers, then we shouldn't compare them to Lloyd George or Churchill or Thatcher. We should compare them to not-so-towering-giants like Eden, Wilson, Chamberlain, MacDonald and all the other forgettables.

So, not so much who was the best ever, but rather, how do the current leadership stack against the historical average? I mean, May can't be worse than Eden? Was Cameron worse than Chamberlain?

[mongers]

Time for a government of national unity?

I'm thinking May backed by the sensible majority of labour MPs and the minority that are the reasonable Tory MPs, also to includes some of the labour front bench, at least Starmer and Gardiner.
No role for Corbyn, his politicking on the issue has been pitiful.
And also 'backed' by the majority of labour party members and the non-crazy tory party.

I'd suggest this coalition will have to go for a rather soft Brexit, if that's still a possibility.

This would leave in the opposition camp, several 'high profile' Tory leaders; Johnson, Davis, Rees-Mogg, Redwood, plus the right wing of the parliamentary party, a few labour mps, the DUP and whatever foot soldiers Farage could mobilise on the streets.

Oh and Corbyn would still be sitting on the fence, even after this Brexit storm we're entering has blown down said fence.

[Josquius]

Shame Labour couldn't go to a dual leader structure.
Give Corbyn the domestic stuff and Starmer brexit.
I'm sure that would shit Corbyn just fine. It's clear he has never cared about Europe either way.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Barnier helpfully put the leave options on a single slide a year or so back :

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf

The only worthwhile referendum would be if the governement opted for one of these options and ran it against remain.

To be fair, the Canada option in that slide deck does not show that the EU would additionally demand an Irish backstop - which they would probably demand in most of the scenarios shown on that slide.

I think that, if good will had not been squandered, the EU would have been far more open to a creative solution to the Irish border. As it is the EU is now more or less demanding that the territorial integrity of the UK be compromised, which isn't going to happen. One hopes for something better but no-deal seems increasingly likely.

[Josquius]

I really can't see a solution to Ireland without a Irish sea border or (far more preferable) EEA or the like.

[Tamas]

I read a nice summary of Labour's position as of yesterday:

So, they rule out leaving without a deal, and they rule out May's version of a deal.

However, they support the idea of a referendum where people get to choose between no deal, and May's version of a deal.


Can somebody stop Monty Python turning the whole country into a giant sketch please?


But of course the above is obsolete as of today because now this guy name Starmer at the Labour conference is saying nobody is ruling out remaining. Which I guess makes Hammond a nobody.

[Zanza]

Barnier helpfully put the leave options on a single slide a year or so back :

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/slide_presented_by_barnier_at_euco_15-12-2017.pdf

The only worthwhile referendum would be if the governement opted for one of these options and ran it against remain.

To be fair, the Canada option in that slide deck does not show that the EU would additionally demand an Irish backstop - which they would probably demand in most of the scenarios shown on that slide.

I think that, if good will had not been squandered, the EU would have been far more open to a creative solution to the Irish border. As it is the EU is now more or less demanding that the territorial integrity of the UK be compromised, which isn't going to happen. One hopes for something better but no-deal seems increasingly likely.

I was rather sceptical regarding the backstop earlier, but a bunch of economic regulations and a customs regime are only a small part of the UK's sovereign powers in Northern Ireland. Compromising on this would not carve up the UK. It would still have full sovereignty over virtually all areas of law (criminal, civil, family, etc.), have budgetary powers, have full military control etc.
So I feel like Barnier's attempts to dedramatize it have merit and should be taken up by the UK in good faith. Instead they are delegating that decision to the local defunct assembly. Hardly a sign they are even trying to engage the EU proposal.

[Tamas]

As I understand the NI question in this case has little to do with logic and much with whether the Protestants will freak the fuck out or not. And they happen to hold the reins of British government as well, at present.

[mongers]

As I understand the NI question in this case has little to do with logic and much with whether the Protestants will freak the fuck out or not. And they happen to hold the reins of British government as well, at present.

And in part that may be the 'reasoning' for a snap November general election; get a slightly increased majority based on a Brexit themed election and May can then ditch the DUP.

[Josquius]

It's a delicate one. Labour have to tow the line between encouraging remain voters to back them without whipping the non regular voter quitlings into coming out in force against them.

[Syt]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/09/25/theresa-may-pledges-slash-taxes-lowest-rate-g20-make-britain/

Theresa May will on Wednesday pledge to use low tax and "smart regulation" to make post-Brexit Britain an economic powerhouse and the envy of Europe.

The Prime Minister will tell an audience in the United States that Britain will have "the lowest rate of corporation tax in the G20" after leaving the EU, making it "one of the most business-friendly economies in the world".

As well as being a sales pitch to foreign investors, Mrs May's comments will be seen as an attempt to convince Eurosceptics that she can be trusted to maximise the benefits of Brexit as she prepares for a challenging Conservative Party conference next week.

[Richard Hakluyt]

To be fair that is the rational reason for brexit. You can convert the UK into a lightly-regulated, low-tax, low social protections place and profit.

Of course the people who voted for brexit, on average those with low skills, will be the principal victims of such changes.

Which is probably why the leave campaign neglected to inform them of these downsides.

[The Minsky Moment]

So they basically want to turn themselves into Ireland.
But the key part of that strategy is to be a low tax, low national regulation BASE to supply to entire Euro market duty-free. 

If Singapore had 65 million people and was located just off the coast of France, it wouldn't be Singapore.  It would in the EU.

[Tamas]

So they basically want to turn themselves into Ireland.
But the key part of that strategy is to be a low tax, low national regulation BASE to supply to entire Euro market duty-free. 

If Singapore had 65 million people and was located just off the coast of France, it wouldn't be Singapore.  It would in the EU.

You act as if facts have prevented anything since 2015.