Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Josquius]

Yet the poor sods who voted for brexit will still insist it was to help the poor and against the rich.. It's become a religion for so many of them now.

[ulmont]

Update - it turns out the UK government has done some Brexit analysis (at least now), and the answer is:  "It's bad."

[N]ational income would be 8% lower under a no deal scenario, around 5% lower with a free trade agreement with the EU and about 2% lower with a soft Brexit option of single market membership over a 15-year period.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/brexit-would-damage-uk-growth-says-leaked-cabinet-report

[Tamas]

Update - it turns out the UK government has done some Brexit analysis (at least now), and the answer is:  "It's bad."

[N]ational income would be 8% lower under a no deal scenario, around 5% lower with a free trade agreement with the EU and about 2% lower with a soft Brexit option of single market membership over a 15-year period.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/brexit-would-damage-uk-growth-says-leaked-cabinet-report

The Leaver counter-argument, of course, is that "it's bad news, ergo irrelevant and false"

[ulmont]

The Leaver counter-argument, of course, is that "it's bad news, ergo irrelevant and false"

That will probably come next.  For now they're still going with "none of that applies because our deal with the EU will be magical and not what was analyzed."

The government would not comment on leaked documents but sources stressed the analysis did not cover May's preferred option of a bespoke deal amounting to a "deep and special partnership" with the EU.

[Gups]

Update - it turns out the UK government has done some Brexit analysis (at least now), and the answer is:  "It's bad."

[N]ational income would be 8% lower under a no deal scenario, around 5% lower with a free trade agreement with the EU and about 2% lower with a soft Brexit option of single market membership over a 15-year period.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/30/brexit-would-damage-uk-growth-says-leaked-cabinet-report

The Leaver counter-argument, of course, is that "it's bad news, ergo irrelevant and false"

Their legitimate argument is that the Bank of England analysis undertaken during the referendum claim on the immediate effects of a Brexit vote was hopelessly pessimistic and proved completely wrong.

[The Brain]

You can't put a price tag on taking back control.

[Tamas]

You can't put a price tag on taking back control.

fresh example: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jan/30/uk-given-days-to-show-it-will-comply-with-eu-air-quality-laws


There will be no need to worry about air pollution once we have our freedom.

[Iormlund]

There will be no need to worry about the pollution our British factory generates, either.

We got word it's closing down next year.

[Josquius]

Does this x% lower income take into account rising costs too?
As if not....then that's seriously bad.

The analysis shows the north east will be worst affected. Exactly as I said

[The Minsky Moment]

Their legitimate argument is that the Bank of England analysis undertaken during the referendum claim on the immediate effects of a Brexit vote was hopelessly pessimistic and proved completely wrong.

It's true that UK GDP growth will be down in 2017 as compared to 2016, and it's weakest since 2012.
At the same time the rest of the EU is having its fastest growth since 2007.
I suppose it could be a coincidence.  If not the kinds of numbers in the analysis are not out of the range.

The BoE acted very agressively after the Brexit vote; Carney gave a "whatever it takes" style pledge and then cut rates right after the vote.  Not entirely fair to blame the BoE forecast when the Bank took strong action to prevent the forecast from coming true.

[Valmy]

An institution discrediting itself through decisive and effective action 

[Jacob]

An institution discrediting itself through decisive and effective action 

Carney seems like a pretty solid guy.

[Josquius]

It's really annoying how the brexiters and the quitlings are insisting that the pre referendum predictions are wrong. They clearly aren't. You can't expect it all to happen over night.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's really annoying how the brexiters and the quitlings are insisting that the pre referendum predictions are wrong.

Bit pot calling kettle black, no?
Where is the 350 mil for the National Health, the "have our cake and eat it too".
What about "take back control?"  How in control is the UK now of its relations with the EU?  #MUKA

[Zanza]

At least it becomes clearer now what Britain wants. They have clearly stated now that they want out of the customs union so we should start building custom posts in Calais, Rotterdam and across Ireland I guess.