Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[The Brain]

I don't follow. The EU would have to display UK level stupidity to accept that members use Article 50 as a renegotiating tool (if such a thing is even legally possible which I don't know). And while anything is possible with strong enough political will I don't see the EU mustering that kind of will just to save the UK from its own stupidity and in doing so weaken the EU enormously.

Who said anything about renegotiating?
If there is to be any renegotiating it would be along the lines of the UK losing some of its privileges.

Any I don't see how stopping the UK imploding and losing one of the EU's largest members would hurt the EU.

Because it sets precedent. next time someone wants something they'll "leave" and try to renegotiate a deal.

Except the UK isn't getting a better deal out of this. If there's any change it'll be for the worse. The only precedent is that even the UK can't make Brexit work so everybody else stands a snowball's chance in hell.

Brexit will work in a bit over a year. That's not in doubt. The UK will have taken back control.

[Grey Fox]

I don't follow. The EU would have to display UK level stupidity to accept that members use Article 50 as a renegotiating tool (if such a thing is even legally possible which I don't know). And while anything is possible with strong enough political will I don't see the EU mustering that kind of will just to save the UK from its own stupidity and in doing so weaken the EU enormously.

Who said anything about renegotiating?
If there is to be any renegotiating it would be along the lines of the UK losing some of its privileges.

Any I don't see how stopping the UK imploding and losing one of the EU's largest members would hurt the EU.

Because it sets precedent. next time someone wants something they'll "leave" and try to renegotiate a deal.

Except the UK isn't getting a better deal out of this. If there's any change it'll be for the worse. The only precedent is that even the UK can't make Brexit work so everybody else stands a snowball's chance in hell.

In the immortal words of Tamas, you are chasing unicorns. If the EU is to let you idiots remain it will not be without losing something.

[Josquius]

Is everyone illiterate here?
I've specifically said the UK isn't getting a better deal. Most likely any change will be for the worse.

[The Brain]

Is everyone illiterate here?
I've specifically said the UK isn't getting a better deal. Most likely any change will be for the worse.

Yes the UK is stupid. We kind of know that.

[Grey Fox]

Is everyone illiterate here?
I've specifically said the UK isn't getting a better deal. Most likely any change will be for the worse.

The old deal doesn't exist anymore, it's gone.

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/jan/12/ftse-holds-on-to-gains-despite-dip-in-oil-price-business-live

Pound hits highest level since Brexit vote - business live

The pound surged to $1.3691 on Friday - the highest since the result of the EU referendum in June 2016 was known - on reports that Spain and the Netherlands are willing to back a soft Brexit deal

The rise the pound seems to be down to this report from Bloomberg:

Spanish and Dutch finance ministers have agreed to work together to push for a Brexit deal that keeps Britain as close to the European Union as possible, according to a person familiar with the situation.

Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos and his Dutch counterpart Wopke Hoekstra met earlier this week and discussed their common interests in Brexit, according to the person. Both have close trade and investment ties and are concerned about the impact of tariffs. They are also worried about losing UK contributions to the EU budget, the person said.

[celedhring]

Is that news though? Not sure about the Dutch but over here soft Brexit has always been the official position. Economic and personal ties between both countries are pretty strong, and we're unlikely to capture significant business relocating from the UK.

[The Larch]

Somebody should tell Boris that doubling down is not always the best strategy.

£350m Brexit claim was 'too low', says Boris Johnson

[The Minsky Moment]

I don't follow. The EU would have to display UK level stupidity to accept that members use Article 50 as a renegotiating tool (if such a thing is even legally possible which I don't know).

I don't think there is a big moral hazard here.  No country in their right mind would deliberately do what the UK did as a gambit for staying in but renegotiating terms (or for that matter for any purpose).  Hypothetically, even if the ultimate outcome was some form of "re-entry" the UK will have lost big on net because business will have already flowed out due to the uncertainty.

[The Minsky Moment]

It's better for the EU to chop off the bad foot than let the rot spread.

Ok but enough about Poland.  This is the Brexit thread.

[crazy canuck]

It's better for the EU to chop off the bad foot than let the rot spread.

Ok but enough about Poland.  This is the Brexit thread.

[The Minsky Moment]

Meant that as a joke but there is a serious side.  The UK often made itself a PITA for the EU.  But there were are still are real advantages to Europe as a whole to have them in, and it's not like there aren't more "challenging" members out there.  I don't see a realistic path to UK ending up back in given the UK domestic politics but politics can change sometime.  If that did end up being a possible outcome, IMO that is something the EU should seriously consider.

[The Brain]

I don't follow. The EU would have to display UK level stupidity to accept that members use Article 50 as a renegotiating tool (if such a thing is even legally possible which I don't know).

I don't think there is a big moral hazard here.  No country in their right mind would deliberately do what the UK did as a gambit for staying in but renegotiating terms (or for that matter for any purpose).  Hypothetically, even if the ultimate outcome was some form of "re-entry" the UK will have lost big on net because business will have already flowed out due to the uncertainty.

We can no longer assume that countries are in their right mind. Any system will have to function in a Trump/Brexit world.

[Tamas]

Christopher Chandler and his family is on the list of people who bought Maltese citizenship in 2016.

Apparently he is one of the biggest sponsors of the Leave campaign and a strong advocate of a hard Brexit.

[mongers]

Christopher Chandler and his family is on the list of people who bought Maltese citizenship in 2016.

Apparently he is one of the biggest sponsors of the Leave campaign and a strong advocate of a hard Brexit.

Tamas, once you've been here long enough, you'll just naturally assume this is given behaviour for our betters and be not at all surprised.