Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

A few seconds too late

[Tamas]

Lot of people seem desperate to use this to prop up May (seemingly even EU leaders) but what was the achievement here? She managed to find a compromise that concedes her position on all points the EU and DUP wanted?

Could we just have the EU give us the trade deal they want and have May sign it? Would be quicker, and that's where this will end on the morning of Brexit-day, anyways.

[Josquius]

The headlines are happily cheering that an agreement has been reached.
Though all I see is an agreement that there needs to be an agreement.
Nothing of substance.

[crazy canuck]

Watch May's response to being questioned about what if any analysis has been done

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/dec/06/this-really-is-a-shambles-may-v-corbyn-at-pmqs-video-highlights

[Josquius]

Corbyn wins.
Fatality.

[Zanza]

So apparently the UK committed that it will keep regulatory convergence in Ireland but also for its internal market. That more or less means it will have to adhere EU regulations by becoming a rule-taker and may diverge in some closely defined areas that the EU and UK will have to negotiate next year. That's a soft Brexit that doesn't take back control, but rather limits control even more than now. High price to pay for not being a member anymore.

[celedhring]

So apparently the UK committed that it will keep regulatory convergence in Ireland but also for its internal market. That more or less means it will have to adhere EU regulations by becoming a rule-taker and may diverge in some closely defined areas that the EU and UK will have to negotiate next year. That's a soft Brexit that doesn't take back control, but rather limits control even more than now. High price to pay for not being a member anymore.

Can May really shove that down the Brexiteers? 

That's just free movement away from being Brexit in name only.

[Zanza]

So far the Brexit "negotiations" were basically the UK slowly accepting the EU's position. The EU will not allow much regulatory divergence if the UK intends to keep the border in Ireland open, so the softest of Brexits is inevitable. Let's see if the EU will ask for some kind of freedom of movement as part of a free trade deal. It was rather uncompromising on that with Switzerland and made Switzerland go through constitutional grey areas to keep the free trade deal.

[Zanza]

Within the common understanding, the United Kingdom negotiator committed that the United
Kingdom would protect the operation and institutions of the Good Friday (Belfast)
Agreement, and avoid a hard border, including physical infrastructure or related checks and
controls. The United Kingdom also explicitly committed to the United Kingdom respecting
Ireland's ongoing EU membership and all of the corresponding rights and obligations.

The United Kingdom negotiator also provided further the necessary assurance that the United
Kingdom would in the future operate the Common Travel Area – a bilateral arrangement
between the United Kingdom and Ireland predating common EU membership – in full respect
of Ireland's obligations as an EU Member State, in particular without affecting the right to
free movement of EU citizens to and from Ireland. [...]

Whilst the United Kingdom remains committed to protecting and supporting continued NorthSouth
cooperation across the full range of contexts and frameworks, including after
withdrawal, the common understanding provides that the United Kingdom aims to achieve
this protection and the avoidance of a hard border through the overall EU-United Kingdom
relationship. This intention seems hard to reconcile with the United Kingdom's
communicated decision to leave the internal market and the Customs Union.

Should these objectives not be met through the future relationship, the United Kingdom
committed to proposing a specific solution to address the unique circumstances of the island
of Ireland for agreement with the EU. The EU will need to ensure that any such solution does
not affect Ireland's place in the internal market, and consequently the integrity of the internal
market.

In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom committed to maintaining full
alignment with those rules of the internal market and the Customs Union which, now or in the
future, support North-South cooperation, the all-island economy, and the protection of the
Good Friday (Belfast) Agreement. In this context, implementation and oversight mechanisms
for the specific arrangements to be found will be established to safeguard the integrity of the
internal market.

[Tamas]

so no deal means soft brexit now?

[Zanza]

Sounds like it. British de facto EEA membership seems to be what this means. I wonder if the EU is willing or able to compromise on freedom of movement or if that would stay in all but name as well. That would be a much worse deal than what the UK has now.

[celedhring]

Well, regarding freedom of movement between North & South, I guess controlling passenger transit between NI into the UK is relatively easy and hassle-free.

[Josquius]

If it was just people there shouldn't be much problem.
It seems likely that Europeans will get visa free access to the UK and vice-versa (though when the idiots realise this...)

With goods issues will arise however.
You will need intrusive customs checks either on the Irish border or on the ferries.

[Zanza]

Visa free travel and freedom of movement have nothing to do with each other. Not sure why people still conflate the two.

[Josquius]

Visa free travel and freedom of movement have nothing to do with each other. Not sure why people still conflate the two.

I wouldn't agree. They're not poles apart from each other. I think you can map things quite neatly on a continuum of:
Free movement
Visa free travel
Visa on arrival
E-visa (in practice, though theoretically not necessarily)
Regular visa obtained in advance
You shall not pass

The key factor being of course visiting vs. living. A lot of the "OMG Turks and Ukrainians are going to storm in" bollocks comes from not understanding this and being utterly ignorant of all those who have visa free travel rights:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/52/Visa_policy_of_the_United_Kingdom.png