Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

Started by Josquius, February 20, 2016, 07:46:34 AM

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How would you vote on Britain remaining in the EU?

British- Remain
12 (12%)
British - Leave
7 (7%)
Other European - Remain
21 (21%)
Other European - Leave
6 (6%)
ROTW - Remain
34 (34%)
ROTW - Leave
20 (20%)

Total Members Voted: 98

Josquius

Quote from: celedhring on March 20, 2017, 10:46:16 AM
Quote from: Gups on March 20, 2017, 08:24:59 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 20, 2017, 08:15:59 AM
Amazing how the pound dropped like a rock almost the very instance brexit was mentioned today.

Down 0.05% against the dollar and 0.01% against the Euro. Run for the hills!!!

Yeah, it's not like the market didn't know that UK triggering Article 50 was coming up this month. Whatever effect on the value of the pound, it's already been accounted for.



I wouldn't be so sure. I think a lot are waiting for it to happen before they move. Whether this will send the pound up or down is a ponderance though.
In many ways stability and certainty is seen as a good thing even if it is a certainly fucked
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Valmy

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 20, 2017, 10:43:38 AM
I'm glad that she has kicked the Scottish referendum into the long grass as well. We need fewer elections not more, excessive voting and electioneering just creates mess.


Especially referendums. You might as well just cancel the British Constitution if you keep going back to those.
Quote"This is a Russian warship. I propose you lay down arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed & unnecessary victims. Otherwise, you'll be bombed."

Zmiinyi defenders: "Russian warship, go fuck yourself."

Gups

Quote from: Tyr on March 20, 2017, 10:51:37 AM
Quote from: celedhring on March 20, 2017, 10:46:16 AM
Quote from: Gups on March 20, 2017, 08:24:59 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 20, 2017, 08:15:59 AM
Amazing how the pound dropped like a rock almost the very instance brexit was mentioned today.

Down 0.05% against the dollar and 0.01% against the Euro. Run for the hills!!!

Yeah, it's not like the market didn't know that UK triggering Article 50 was coming up this month. Whatever effect on the value of the pound, it's already been accounted for.



I wouldn't be so sure. I think a lot are waiting for it to happen before they move. Whether this will send the pound up or down is a ponderance though.
In many ways stability and certainty is seen as a good thing even if it is a certainly fucked

The pound's slip against the dollar today was more likely a result of good economic news coming out of the States making interest rate rises more likely.

Zanza

There are about 21,000 EU directives and regulations that apply to Britain. There are about 500 working days in the two years that will start on the 29th when Theresa May hands in her letter. So they need to sort out about 40 directives and regulations per working day if they want to have considered everything by the end of the two years. That will be a monumental task.

MadImmortalMan

I don't see why 21000 directives suddenly becoming void would slow anything down. Most things would just keep going as-is until it gets absorbed over time that x,y and z aren't regulated anymore.

Dunno how long it will take for the bendy bananas to actually start showing up in stores, but I'm guessing the people who have thus far dealt with those directives directly will do a lot of the research themselves and the government won't have to.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

celedhring

My understanding is that everything will still apply until the UK decides to repeal it or replace it? Doesn't seem to be much of an issue.

Zanza

Quote from: celedhring on March 20, 2017, 03:07:29 PM
My understanding is that everything will still apply until the UK decides to repeal it or replace it? Doesn't seem to be much of an issue.
The directives cannot apply anymore as every single of them presumes the existence of the ECJ as court of arbitration. As that's one of the red lines for the British government, they materially change the directive, namely by taking away the actual mechanism for anybody affected by it to get a final say on how a certain regulation must be applied/understood.


Richard Hakluyt

No doubt the sky will fall in.

Zanza

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 20, 2017, 03:12:04 PM
No doubt the sky will fall in.
It will just create lots of inefficiencies and waste for everybody who wants to do business in or with Britain. Lawyers will rejoice though as there will undoubtly be a deluge of lawsuits to clarify what kind of regulation now applies or doesn't apply anymore.

celedhring

Just write in a piece of paper that everything not expressly repealed still applies, and that the new court of arbitration will be XXXX. Have Liz sign it. Done?

Barrister

Quote from: Zanza on March 20, 2017, 03:10:29 PM
Quote from: celedhring on March 20, 2017, 03:07:29 PM
My understanding is that everything will still apply until the UK decides to repeal it or replace it? Doesn't seem to be much of an issue.
The directives cannot apply anymore as every single of them presumes the existence of the ECJ as court of arbitration. As that's one of the red lines for the British government, they materially change the directive, namely by taking away the actual mechanism for anybody affected by it to get a final say on how a certain regulation must be applied/understood.

So you pass a single law that names the High Court of Justice of England (or equivalent in other areas) as the court of arbitration.

There are difficulties in brexit to be sure, but you are overselling it to go on about '40 regulations a day'.
Posts here are my own private opinions.  I do not speak for my employer.

MadImmortalMan

Be sure to publish the 21000 regs so the people can look up what they need.
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

Josquius

Quote from: Gups on March 20, 2017, 11:59:37 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 20, 2017, 10:51:37 AM
Quote from: celedhring on March 20, 2017, 10:46:16 AM
Quote from: Gups on March 20, 2017, 08:24:59 AM
Quote from: Tyr on March 20, 2017, 08:15:59 AM
Amazing how the pound dropped like a rock almost the very instance brexit was mentioned today.

Down 0.05% against the dollar and 0.01% against the Euro. Run for the hills!!!

Yeah, it's not like the market didn't know that UK triggering Article 50 was coming up this month. Whatever effect on the value of the pound, it's already been accounted for.



I wouldn't be so sure. I think a lot are waiting for it to happen before they move. Whether this will send the pound up or down is a ponderance though.
In many ways stability and certainty is seen as a good thing even if it is a certainly fucked

The pound's slip against the dollar today was more likely a result of good economic news coming out of the States making interest rate rises more likely.
I monitor vs. the chf.
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Zanza

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 20, 2017, 03:37:36 PM
Be sure to publish the 21000 regs so the people can look up what they need.
It's all published on the EU website.

Zanza

Quote from: celedhring on March 20, 2017, 03:19:08 PM
Just write in a piece of paper that everything not expressly repealed still applies, and that the new court of arbitration will be XXXX. Have Liz sign it. Done?
No, as most of the regulations are not only applicable domestically but internationally. Either some law on cross-border divorces or health insurance or airline safety standards or university degrees or product standards or all the other things the EU in painstaking debates found a common ground on applies or not. The English High Court can't just come up with competing interpretation to the ECJ what something means. The only way out is either to re-discuss every such issue or do a hard Brexit on all those that were not discussed. Tariffs is probably the easiest topic out there. The point here is that Britain leaves way more than just the single market.