Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[The Larch]

the problem I see, is if they declare independance now, they don't have to re-negotiate everything with the European Union, they can get the same deal the UK had, right?

Not right, they'd still have to negotiate access, they can't just claim the UK's spot.

[Grinning_Colossus]

I was against independence for exactly the reasons that Otto outlined, though I'd go further and say that it wouldn't matter even if they did still speak Gaelic. People should remain in (or join) political units that bring about the greatest economic utility and get over any cultural hangups they might have.

But now the island is sinking so what the hell. Alba gu brath!

[Josquius]

that's not really something that needs to be conceded, as it is a plain and simple fact. There's not many countries that got to start from a near clean slate as the US did. For most of the world: history matters, even if the opposite is claimed.

In some places, yes. In Britain, not really. The reality of say, Scottish or say Welsh "national identity" is pretty weak in any real sense. Instead I think you simply have a region of the country that is politically much more liberal than the rest, and wants to exploit the facade of national self-determination to leave Britain. That isn't something to be encouraged.  The vast majority of people born in Scotland are not a distinct nationality from those born in England. They don't speak Gaelic or engage in many culturally distinct Scottish national behaviors. In fact the regions of Scotland that still retain some of that, the Shetland Islands for example, actually voted to stay with Britain at a higher rate than Scotland as a whole. This suggests to me that the actual remnant "nation of Scotland" is more amenable to remaining in Britain, and that most of the independent movement is urban liberals in Scotland who have minimal Scottish cultural identity.

[

Yes and no.
It's certainly true there's not much cultural difference from Scotland and the north. But it's not the north the Scots look to when they say England. They mean London, in the most negative privately educated upper class oxbridge educated sense of the word.
There's a world of difference between someone from a Northern British council estate and these images of Englishness

The thing with Scottish independence is that it now seems to be the pragmatic choice and the blind nationalist choice. It wins on both fronts where before it just had nationalism. I really understand why many in Scotland are supporting it. If there was a get the north east out of the UK and remaining in the EU vote I'd be tempted.

[Gups]

the problem I see, is if they declare independance now, they don't have to re-negotiate everything with the European Union, they can get the same deal the UK had, right?

Wrong.

During the last Indyref, it was made crystal clear by the EU that Scotland, as a new nation, would have to apply to join the EU. Spain and other countries with entities seeking independence gave pretty strong indications that they would veto any application.

[garbon]

that's not really something that needs to be conceded, as it is a plain and simple fact. There's not many countries that got to start from a near clean slate as the US did. For most of the world: history matters, even if the opposite is claimed.

In some places, yes. In Britain, not really. The reality of say, Scottish or say Welsh "national identity" is pretty weak in any real sense. Instead I think you simply have a region of the country that is politically much more liberal than the rest, and wants to exploit the facade of national self-determination to leave Britain. That isn't something to be encouraged.  The vast majority of people born in Scotland are not a distinct nationality from those born in England. They don't speak Gaelic or engage in many culturally distinct Scottish national behaviors. In fact the regions of Scotland that still retain some of that, the Shetland Islands for example, actually voted to stay with Britain at a higher rate than Scotland as a whole. This suggests to me that the actual remnant "nation of Scotland" is more amenable to remaining in Britain, and that most of the independent movement is urban liberals in Scotland who have minimal Scottish cultural identity.

[

Yes and no.
It's certainly true there's not much cultural difference from Scotland and the north. But it's not the north the Scots look to when they say England. They mean London, in the most negative privately educated upper class oxbridge educated sense of the word.
There's a world of difference between someone from a Northern British council estate and these images of Englishness

The thing with Scottish independence is that it now seems to be the pragmatic choice and the blind nationalist choice. It wins on both fronts where before it just had nationalism. I really understand why many in Scotland are supporting it. If there was a get the north east out of the UK and remaining in the EU vote I'd be tempted.

Becoming a tiny, insignificant state that can't support itself financially and would need to go through application process to join the EU is the pragmatic option?

[Josquius]

the problem I see, is if they declare independance now, they don't have to re-negotiate everything with the European Union, they can get the same deal the UK had, right?

Wrong.

During the last Indyref, it was made crystal clear by the EU that Scotland, as a new nation, would have to apply to join the EU. Spain and other countries with entities seeking independence gave pretty strong indications that they would veto any application.

The truth probably lies somewhere in between at the moment.
Scotland won't be an instant member as the nats claim, but I don't think it's joining will be made especially difficult given the situation.

[Richard Hakluyt]

It is estimated that, absent the subsidy paid by England, Scotland would have a budget deficit at around 9-10% of GDP.

Edit, lets have a link for that :

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/aug/24/scottish-finances-worsen-fall-oil-revenues-15bn-deficit

[Richard Hakluyt]

In addition 80% of Scottish trade is with the other components of the UK and only 14% is with the EU-27. Scottish independence would make brexit look like a walk in the park.

[Tamas]

It is an incredibly stupid choice but after Brexit and Trump, I would fully expect the second referendum to end up with a secessionist victory.

[Archy]

Just wondering. Can't England & Wales just leave the EU and Scotland & Northern Ireland staying.
Like for example Greenland & Denmark, some of those enclaves in Switzerland from Germany & Italy?

[Tamas]

Just wondering. Can't England & Wales just leave the EU and Scotland & Northern Ireland staying.
Like for example Greenland & Denmark, some of those enclaves in Switzerland from Germany & Italy?

That would give a new definition to the word "chaos"

[The Larch]

Just wondering. Can't England & Wales just leave the EU and Scotland & Northern Ireland staying.
Like for example Greenland & Denmark, some of those enclaves in Switzerland from Germany & Italy?

I don't think so, AFAIK the UK has to leave the EU as a block (or without Scotland if it secedes before that, but then Scotland would also be out of the EU).

[celedhring]

England and Wales secede from the UK and as a result they are automatically outside the EU, UK-Scotland then stays.

Fantasyland, but I guess it would work? 

[The Larch]

England and Wales secede from the UK and as a result they are automatically outside the EU, UK-Scotland then stays.

Fantasyland, but I guess it would work? 

And who gets to inherit the UK's international commitments (UN seat, participation in international bodies and treaties and so on)? England+Wales or the Rump "UK" of Scotland+Nortthern Ireland?

[celedhring]

Scotland-UK I would guess?