Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[alfred russel]

FACT: I can pronounce "Lesotho" properly. Fact.

We also lost satellite TV once we got over Nova Scotia so I can't watch the World Series 

I imagine the scene on the plane was something like this when they took away the world series from derspiess' tv.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C9jAsPwvgms

[Ed Anger]

All Spicy can receive is "Geordie Shore".

I'll pray for you Spicy.

[derspiess]

The movies are absolute shit. The only thing I have to watch is game film I've already watched.  Play #47 is getting me through this.

[derspiess]

Also watched the David Pumpkins skit a few times.

[Gups]

UK GDP 0.5% growth Q3 while Nissan invests heavily in its Sunderland factory. Meanwhile Waloons give in/secure victory.

[Tamas]

Q2 was 0.7% though

[Gups]

Q2 was 0.7% though

And Q1 was 0.4%, what's your point?

The reality is that the sky hasn't fallen in as some (including me) feared. There's a long way to go but the first concern, of an immediate recession has disappeared. I hope I was wrong about the longer term effects now.

[Tamas]

Well yes, let's hope so. But I'd like to point out, nothing has happened yet.

We don't know the general aim of the UK government in the Brexit negotiations, apart from the obvious BS of trying to eat the cake and have it.
We have no idea if the EU is just going to bend over for the soap, or will put up a fight during the talks, or in fact if they decide to make an example out of the UK before others think too much about following suit.
And we most definitely don't know the outcome of the negotiations.

I am expecting the British economy to be lingering in a limbo for the next two years or so. As more and more of the deal will be set in stone, I expect a short, hopefully not too severe recession, and then I am hoping for a fairly quick recovery.

[garbon]

Well yes, let's hope so. But I'd like to point out, nothing has happened yet.

We don't know the general aim of the UK government in the Brexit negotiations, apart from the obvious BS of trying to eat the cake and have it.
We have no idea if the EU is just going to bend over for the soap, or will put up a fight during the talks, or in fact if they decide to make an example out of the UK before others think too much about following suit.
And we most definitely don't know the outcome of the negotiations.

I am expecting the British economy to be lingering in a limbo for the next two years or so. As more and more of the deal will be set in stone, I expect a short, hopefully not too severe recession, and then I am hoping for a fairly quick recovery.

Yeah the press has taken a bit of a cheery tone despite the fact that yeah, no Brexit has as of yet occurred.

[Zanza]

UK GDP 0.5% growth Q3

Would be interesting to see a development of purchasing power per capita. I could imagine that British purchasing power is determined to a good degree by the external value of the GBP and that it has actually fallen since the Brexit decision.

[Josquius]

Nissan announced they will make 2 more models in sunderland.

Am I alone in thinking this isn't the good news for the kippers that they are pretending?
A car model has a lifespan of what, 10 years? So even worst case things aren't so bad for them.
Though to me this rings a bell that Nissan very strongly believe a hard brexit won't go ahead. Perhaps even that they are buying themselves leverage to disuade the government from such a course.

[Zanza]

Nissan said they got "assurances and support" from the British government before they made that investment decision. It's very common in the auto industry to get subsidies or tax breaks or similar support from governments as part of major investment decisions.
Nissan exports most of the cars to the continent, so if they expect a depressed sterling in perpetuity, the plant has become more competitive through devaluation. That said, the real issue will be the supply chain as a part may cross the channel a few times before it is actually assembled into a complete vehicle. If you have tariff barriers and red tape every time, it could increase costs and threaten supply security in an industry that has basically abolished keeping parts on stock and gets everything delivered just-in-time and just-in-sequence.

[The Minsky Moment]

Q2 was 0.7% though

And Q1 was 0.4%, what's your point?

The reality is that the sky hasn't fallen in as some (including me) feared. There's a long way to go but the first concern, of an immediate recession has disappeared. I hope I was wrong about the longer term effects now.

Sky falling? No.
But the pound collapsed 15-20%, reflecting a re-rating of the UK's economic potential of about 400-500 billion pounds. 

[The Brain]

That's what, 2 or 3 katmai?

[Admiral Yi]

Joan, what exactly are the clearing functions folks talk about leaving London?