Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

Now that I am calmer: I guess these points will make it less of a face-loss to sign everything the EU puts in front of the UK on the last day, ending up with a Norway deal. Let's hope so.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Now that I am calmer: I guess these points will make it less of a face-loss to sign everything the EU puts in front of the UK on the last day, ending up with a Norway deal. Let's hope so.

I'm hopeful this is what will happen; the hard brexiteers on the cabinet have been faced down and the momentum is now against their feckless "plans".

I'm being optimistic and may well be wrong. But I'm too old to waste my time being as gloomy as Tyr 

[Josquius]

Hopefully we will end up in a Norway situation. Will give me a lot more leeway in my plans for the next years. But I remain vigilant. And I still need an EU passport ultimately.

Now that I am calmer: I guess these points will make it less of a face-loss to sign everything the EU puts in front of the UK on the last day, ending up with a Norway deal. Let's hope so.

I'm hopeful this is what will happen; the hard brexiteers on the cabinet have been faced down and the momentum is now against their feckless "plans".

I'm being optimistic and may well be wrong. But I'm too old to waste my time being as gloomy as Tyr 

You mean too old to worry about the next 50 years of your life being fucked up yeah? 😜

[celedhring]

While a Norway situation would be the best of all outcomes, I don't see how the brexiteer crowd would ever buy that.

[Zanza]

How is the Norway model better than membership? It's still just the next best thing.

[Tamas]

How is the Norway model better than membership? It's still just the next best thing.

Well yes but membership is not an option anymore.

[Josquius]

It does have the advantage of teaching the quitlings that membership is best.

[Tamas]

It does have the advantage of teaching the quitlings that membership is best.

Only conclusion they'll draw is that the EU is evil and messed up the bright EU-less future of Britain.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Hopefully we will end up in a Norway situation. Will give me a lot more leeway in my plans for the next years. But I remain vigilant. And I still need an EU passport ultimately.

Now that I am calmer: I guess these points will make it less of a face-loss to sign everything the EU puts in front of the UK on the last day, ending up with a Norway deal. Let's hope so.

I'm hopeful this is what will happen; the hard brexiteers on the cabinet have been faced down and the momentum is now against their feckless "plans".

I'm being optimistic and may well be wrong. But I'm too old to waste my time being as gloomy as Tyr 

You mean too old to worry about the next 50 years of your life being fucked up yeah? 😜

Well I have kids, the youngest is only 16, so I still have a big personal stake in how we get on over the next 60-70 years or so.

[Syt]

German Interior Minister Seehofer, who previously sought the confrontation with Merkel over migration which nearly led to a collapse of the government again takes his own route:

https://www.ft.com/content/6fe7ca24-80d6-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475

Brexit rebellion, Seehofer style

Germany's interior minister says the EU's agreed approach is completely misguided

Horst Seehofer is quite the renegade. While his asylum rebellion was still running hot last week, Germany's interior minister decided to open a new front against Angela Merkel, this time over Brexit.

The CSU leader and Bavaria's mutineer-in-chief fired off a letter to the European Commission, uncovered by the FT's Guy Chazan in Berlin and The Times, which ever-so-politely tells them the EU's agreed Brexit approach is completely misguided.

Security of citizens should trump all other considerations in Brexit talks, Mr Seehofer writes, and that means continuing unlimited co-operation with the UK. Inflexibility would put lives at risk.

"Our common objectives — ensuring the security of citizens in Europe — should take precedence over all other aspects of exit negotiations. Weakening the European security architecture would undermine and affect all EU citizens and their fundamental need for security. The ever present threat of cross-border terrorism demonstrates the need for unlimited cooperation in future."

What can we take away from this latest Seehofer episode?

The first is that this is not an official shift of Germany's stance, but an expression of the tensions below the surface. Mr Seehofer and Ms Merkel have been at odds over Brexit for some time, as with everything else. It is one of the many knots in a spectacularly dysfunctional relationship that brought Germany's 70-year CDU-CSU coalition to the brink of collapse. Mr Seehofer's havoc-making continues.

The second is that it shows the underlying trend in Brexit talks on security is likely to be towards accommodation. Michel Barnier, EU chief negotiator, has stressed things cannot go on as before once Britain is a non-member. But he knows the natural instinct of many interior ministers will ultimately be pragmatism.

Whereas on the economy there are existential political principles at stake (what does it mean to be an EU member? — the main limit on a Brexit security deal may be the creativity of lawyers, and in Brussels that is a commodity in abundance. ​If Britain formally accepts a role for European courts, a lot is possible — the operative word being "if".

Theresa May's cabinet meets in Chequers on Friday for its Brexit showdown, and Westminster is predictably gripped by intrigue and conspiracy. George Parker reports at the Eurosceptic uproar at Ms May's emerging Brexit plan. Sam Coates in The Times describes it as the worst rebellion yet of Ms May's premiership.

Half-a-dozen Brexiter ministers gathered in the Foreign Office on Thursday, presumably for a kind of political seance to find their inner Horst.

The Sun still suspects they will bottle it in the end, having muddied the proposed text. Chequers will be a long and difficult meeting, but despite the Seehofer warning on the dangers of Brexit to security, the biggest casualty this time may yet again be clarity.

[Zanza]

Seehofer has zero influence on this and just oversteps his remit. As he is often not aligned within his own party, I expect some kind of deal between Merkel and Söder soon (after Bavarian elections?) to fire him.

[Syt]

Seehofer has zero influence on this and just oversteps his remit. As he is often not aligned within his own party, I expect some kind of deal between Merkel and Söder soon (after Bavarian elections?) to fire him.

If that happens it would be funny/sad if he then joined the AfD.

[The Brain]

Seehofer is a nut.

[The Larch]

Brexit Secretary David Davis resigns

Brexit Secretary David Davis has resigned from the UK government.

His resignation comes days after Theresa May secured the cabinet's backing for her Brexit plan despite claims from Brexiteers that it was too "soft".

Mr Davis was appointed Brexit secretary in 2016 and was responsible for negotiating the UK withdrawal from the EU.

A Brexiteer hailed his resignation as a "principled and brave decision".

Conservative MP Peter Bone said Mr Davis had "done the right thing", adding: "The PM's proposals for a Brexit in name only are not acceptable."

Labour Party chairman Ian Lavery said: "This is absolute chaos and Theresa May has no authority left."

The resignation comes as Mrs May prepares to face the House of Commons and then Tory MPs and peers on Monday to discuss her Brexit plan.

Mrs May is expected to tell MPs that the strategy agreed on by the cabinet at Chequers on Friday is the "right Brexit" for Britain.

Mr Davis is yet to comment on his resignation, but Daily Express correspondent Sarah O'Grady, the wife of Mr Davis' special adviser Stewart Jackson, said "DD decided he couldn't sell out his own country".

[Zanza]

The rats are leaving the sinking ship.