Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Martinus]

...have you read any of my posts on Corbyn?

Isn't your position basically that you are pro-Brexit from a far left position, though? Sorry, I didn't exactly follow the thread carefully, just skimmed it.

[Agelastus]

...have you read any of my posts on Corbyn?

Isn't your position basically that you are pro-Brexit from a far left position, though? Sorry, I didn't exactly follow the thread carefully, just skimmed it.

Sheilbh came down on the side of remain, albeit apparently only by a small margin.

Whereas 10 years ago he'd have been a slam-dunker for remain.

Which is, of course, a good example of why Tyr's probably not being particularly rational in his analysis; he sees that as you get older you're more likely to vote leave so concludes that the old are the problem and he just has to wait for them to die off to get his "utopia". Whereas given the swing since 1975 the more likely conclusion is that the longer one has direct exposure to the EU the less likely one is to support it, at least in England and Wales.

Scotland and Northern Ireland basically haven't changed, having overall stayed steady for the EU (Scotland 58-42 in 1975, 62-38 in 2016, Northern Ireland 52-48 in 1975, 56-42 in 2016 is not much change given the 40 years between the two referenda, especially given the political changes in both nations.)

Hell, pre-Maastricht, when I was the age that shows the greatest pro-EU feeling today, I'd probably have voted to stay in (albeit not with any great enthusiasm.)

[garbon]

Also, the security lady at Heathrow was in a full abbaya, including cloth gloves underneath the plastic ones for the job. The mind boggles. Foxes, henhouse etc.

Thankfully your casual racism isn't enshrined in British law.

I'll feel a little bit sad for you when they throw you off a building. A little bit.

I don't know who they are and how that connects to you hating on a muslim woman doing her job.

Anyway, if I've been thrown off a building, I'll be dead so won't be feeling much at all.

[garbon]

Whereas given the swing since 1975 the more likely conclusion is that the longer one has direct exposure to the EU the less likely one is to support it, at least in England and Wales.

That doesn't seem realistic. London had a lot of strong remain boroughs and they certainly have a lot of direct exposure to the EU (and teh horrible free movement).

[Jacob]

I just spent a few days in the (north of the) UK after many years' absence. Holy crap, what happened? Poverty, poor infrastructure and Muslims everywhere. No wonder #Brexit won, and I think more is to come.

So you've gone full out anti-Muslim then?

[Hamilcar]

I just spent a few days in the (north of the) UK after many years' absence. Holy crap, what happened? Poverty, poor infrastructure and Muslims everywhere. No wonder #Brexit won, and I think more is to come.

So you've gone full out anti-Muslim then?

3/5th, I'd say. There's still room.

[Jacob]

3/5th, I'd say. There's still room.

Ah okay. What does the 2/5ths that's not anti-Muslim consist of? Fully Westernized and integrated secular Muslims are okay, and you don't care what they do in Muslim countries as long as it doesn't affect us? Something like that?

[Hamilcar]

3/5th, I'd say. There's still room.

Ah okay. What does the 2/5ths that's not anti-Muslim consist of? Fully Westernized and integrated secular Muslims are okay, and you don't care what they do in Muslim countries as long as it doesn't affect us? Something like that?

Something like that, though I do care about the horrors that are Muslim countries, except I think we can do little about it.

[mongers]

Take this as only anecdotal 'evidence', the few trader, shopkeepers and small business owners I've spoken with over the last week or so, say they're seeing a general slow down in sales, some rather dramatic.

My best guess is in the short term we'll see a Brexit caused zero or modest percentage decline in consumer sales.

[Agelastus]

Whereas given the swing since 1975 the more likely conclusion is that the longer one has direct exposure to the EU the less likely one is to support it, at least in England and Wales.

That doesn't seem realistic. London had a lot of strong remain boroughs and they certainly have a lot of direct exposure to the EU (and teh horrible free movement).

London went from 67-33 in 1975 to 60-40 in 2016; it swung in the same direction as the rest of England and Wales, just to such a lesser degree that it became an outlier for the two nations.

If people were correct before the referendum and the higher turnout should have helped remain one does wonder just what the results would have looked like had the 1975 turnout of 64.5% been matched instead of exceeded. 

[Jacob]

Something like that, though I do care about the horrors that are Muslim countries, except I think we can do little about it.

Gotcha. Thanks.

[Josquius]

...have you read any of my posts on Corbyn?

Isn't your position basically that you are pro-Brexit from a far left position, though? Sorry, I didn't exactly follow the thread carefully, just skimmed it.

Sheilbh came down on the side of remain, albeit apparently only by a small margin.

Whereas 10 years ago he'd have been a slam-dunker for remain.

Which is, of course, a good example of why Tyr's probably not being particularly rational in his analysis; he sees that as you get older you're more likely to vote leave so concludes that the old are the problem and he just has to wait for them to die off to get his "utopia". Whereas given the swing since 1975 the more likely conclusion is that the longer one has direct exposure to the EU the less likely one is to support it, at least in England and Wales.

Scotland and Northern Ireland basically haven't changed, having overall stayed steady for the EU (Scotland 58-42 in 1975, 62-38 in 2016, Northern Ireland 52-48 in 1975, 56-42 in 2016 is not much change given the 40 years between the two referenda, especially given the political changes in both nations.)

Hell, pre-Maastricht, when I was the age that shows the greatest pro-EU feeling today, I'd probably have voted to stay in (albeit not with any great enthusiasm.)

You're being the irrational one here.
The old idea of being a socialist in youth and becoming a conservative in old age... Its just not true. Its misreading what is really happening; that is that the centre is constantly moving leftwards. Where you'd be hardpressed to find a under 18 opposed to gay people these days, go back a few decades and it would be the norm.
The key relevant part of this is that the next generation just fundamentally are far more accepting and aware of the world outside England than their grandparents are.

[alfred russel]

The center isn't constantly moving leftwards. 100 years ago there were genuine socialist revolutions on the verge of breaking out in Europe. The Paris Commune was in the 1870s. 30 years ago much of eastern europe was communist. There were serious communist movements in some western european countries post wwii.

Since that time there have been an international wave of privatization and free trade. Countries with high tax regimes have been under pressure--many have been lowered, and markets liberalized. Union strength has eroded.

Yes we have had the acceptance of gay marriage in places, and that is likely to spread. But I don't think a determined leftist from the 50s would be satisfied with that as one more piece of evidence that his side is carrying the day. I doubt that was even an issue that registered with the leftist movements of the period.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Acceptance of gays is left wing?

I don't see that at all, it is a long-term cultural change that is fairly independent of political affiliation.

[Jacob]

Acceptance of gays is left wing?

I don't see that at all, it is a long-term cultural change that is fairly independent of political affiliation.

That's what it is now. However before that happened, pushing for acceptance of gays was definitely a left-wing cause.