Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

Also Corbyn is really the fault of idiot MPs nominating a candidate they opposed to 'broaden the debate'.

Ah ok. 'We need to shake up the system!'

Well mission accomplished

[Sheilbh]

No they assumed he'd lose. There's normally a sacrificial candidate from the hard left. So even some of his direct opponents helped him get the nominations necessary to run because it'd be good for the 'debate'.

PLP more full than ever. They'll debate and vote on the no confidence motion, currently I've seen predictions of 70% against him. Corbyn will then go to Parliament square where Momentum are organising a rally in his favour.

I have a few Labour friends. All the CLPs are having no confidence and confidence motions.I

Edit: Sorry, the PLP votes tomorrow. Just has the debate tonight.

[Agelastus]

That's a very Tory perspective.

The real change in Labour has been the empowerment of members at the expense of the unions.

Still amazed at Labour deposing a leader. This never happens

Not really, Sheilbh. The real change in Labour has been the empowerment of the Unions, and to an extent the local parties, at the expense of the MPs.

Going from an electoral college system of three equally weighted parts regardless of numbers to one where each vote counts the same whether you are an MP or someone whose paid a nominal sum to join the party has done precisely zero to limit Union Power.

Who do you think has the most people entitled to vote of the former colleges?

[OttoVonBismarck]

What are the odds Corbyn keeps his leadership?

[Agelastus]

Still amazed at Labour deposing a leader. This never happens

The article's brief, and I know too little about the Labour party of the era (an oversight) to be certain that the surface appearance is accurate but it looks to me as if their first proper leadership election was the deposition of a leader.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labour_Party_(UK)_leadership_election,_1922

[OttoVonBismarck]

Betting markets are giving the odds of Corbyn leaving his position as party leader before David Cameron (1.51 odds vs 2.24), and also are showing it as long odds that he keeps his leadership until the next General Election.

[derspiess]

59 % of the French were pro-Brexit.   
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GX81qynnAVw&feature=youtu.be

Source, a poll shown on a news channel yesterday (itélé).

That's hilarious

[Hamilcar]

AAA rating is gone.

[Agelastus]

Standard & Poor's

27-Jun-2016
18:40 BST

Ratings On The United Kingdom Lowered To 'AA' On Brexit Vote; Outlook Remains Negative On Continued Uncertainty

Well, I guess this makes Osborne's emergency budget more likely.

[Valmy]

Some European nations choose austerity. Others have it forced up on them by having shitty bond ratings.

[OttoVonBismarck]

We had that happen here once, it's no big deal.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think we also filed a fraud suit against S&P out of spite.

[LaCroix]

We had that happen here once, it's no big deal.

it's a big enough deal to further incentivize the rest of the EU nations to remain in the EU. hopefully the EU remains pleasant toward britain throughout this whole affair. it's great advertisement

[Sheilbh]

So I get that Corbyn is a disaster, but why is Labour melting down so spectacularly at the moment?

There's a lot. But the big reason why now is a combination of the following factors:
* Labour membership and MPs are overwhelmingly pro-European.
* Corbyn has always been anti-Europe, he campaigned half-heartedly (going on holiday for a week three weeks before the vote) and since the vote has struggled to sound like he doesn't think Brexit is a good idea. Everyone else is saying we need to take a minute and decide what we want now, Corbyn and Farage are both saying we should activate Article 50 immediately.
* Much of Corbyn's core support wasn't, I don't think, aware that he was anti-European.
* The Leave vote was strongest in traditional Labour areas and among those working class, non-London voters that Corbyn least convinces.
* It's very likely there'll be a new general election.

As I say this doesn't happen very often. Labour party rules make it quite difficult to depose a leader. The only way to do it is to nominate a leadership challenger who then has to win the election (there is disputed legal advice over whether the leader is automatically on the ballot), by contrast the Tories need the signature of 20% of their MPs. The only time I can think of when Labour has deposed a leader was done by the unions in 1935 against George Lansbury (father of Angela).

There is real anger among Labour MPs and activists at the way this referendum has gone and the part, the half-hearted part, Labour played in the campaign. They are blaming Corbyn directly for that.  Of course the issue is that the areas those MPs represent were, generally, strongly Leave. Arguably this is the one issue where Corbyn is closer to the party's base, despite being further from the activists.

Meanwhile Corbyn spoke at the PLP, was heckled and only applauded by a few. Huge applause for the first MP to tell him to resign 'for all those who need a Labour government'. One of his new shadow cabinet appointees was roundly booed when he tried to speak. Then an MP had a huge stand-up row with Corbyn's Comms Director outside the meeting (in view of the press). Corbyn and his supporters then went outside to address the 'Keep Corbyn' rally outside, widely attended by the Socialist Worker's Party - which historically was difficult to confuse with the Labour Party.

One interesting feature of Labour is that the PLP directly elect a sort-of shadow-shadow cabinet. They choose people who chair policy committees that mirror the (shadow) cabinet. Technically those Committee Chairs have the right to address the Commons from the dispatch box. I would not be surprised in the near future to see, say, Diane Abbott shadow Foreign Secretary speaking for the Labour leadership and then furiously anti-Corbyn Mike Gapes speak for the Parliamentary Labour Party.

I really think they might split - we need to hear from the unions now and their support has gone from strong to pretty tepid. Tom Watson (deputy leader) has a very close relationship to the union bosses so he'll be key. But I wouldn't be surprised to see a Labour Party v Real Labour Party in this election

Edit: Incidentally I think a party split for Corbyn would be a victory. He would have won the formal apparatus of the Labour Party for a hard-left sect

[Sheilbh]

We had that happen here once, it's no big deal.

Yeah to be expected and we've got an independent central bank and control of our own currency. It doesn't matter.

And Treasury gilts are at record lows at the moment due to a flight to safety, from historic lows over the last 5 years.