Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[CountDeMoney]

This. They gave the world so much and decided to turn into parochial assholes afraid of everything.

As opposed to being (diminishing) wage slaves to a global elite that is accountable to no one?  Was that your life's goal?  And everyone else's that are now wailing like little bitches since Thursday night?  And that's not even mentioning being drowned under a tsunami of third world migrants.

A "tsunami"?  A nation that built an empire on centuries of exploiting brown people across the globe is suddenly threatened by an influx of Pakistani college students?  Not buying it.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I wonder if I can wangle one from being married to a "Scot"  ?

I'd even be able to wear a kilt to weddings!!! Might make them more fun.

[mongers]

I wonder if I can wangle one from being married to a "Scot"  ?

I'd even be able to wear a kilt to weddings!!! Might make them more fun.

Any port in a storm, though admittedly draughty. 

[Legbiter]

UK is going to more or less be fine. You're exaggerating the difference in a few points of GDP, here or there.

Leaving the EU is going to be an adjustment downward of their total GDP growth over time, but it's not going to make Britain "poor" and isn't guaranteed to cause a loss of real wages. 25 years from now I suspect British GDP will be higher than it is now, and its wages will be higher than they are now. Note--I mean this if you compare "like to like." Obviously if Scotland leaves the numbers won't be quite the same, but in that scenario if you compare England + Wales + NI GDP and wage rates today versus 25 years out, I think the 25 year out numbers will be higher and have shown "decent" growth.

They've hurt their future growth, and also added a large amount of hassle to the lives of their citizens, but let's not be overly-dramatic.

Countries do things that hurt their long term growth prospects all the time, like for example starting $1.5 trillion dollars in wars and cutting taxes at the same time, pushing up deficits that will create debt levels that will saddle future generations and hurt prosperity. Other examples from America would be some of the dumbest tariffs Congress passed historically.

It takes more than a downward mark against growth to turn Britain into a genuinely poor country like Russia.

I suppose one of the takeaways from the referendum is that people care deeply about things other than pure economic interest. Also Merkel going insane and declaring that Berlin had opened the doors to all comers sent a jolt through many EU countries.

[Zanza]

It is the cultural aspects that disturb me most, the pinched small-mindedness, that feeling of being outside the mainstream 

Some of the Leave campaigners tried to sell a vision of a UK open to the world engaging new developing markets. I am not sure if that's realistic. I fear that the Little Englanders might win out and the UK will be less open, less engaged with the rest of the world. Which would be a loss for everybody.

I am also not sure if this will settle the domestic disputes over the right approach to European integration. In the next year or two at least, it will still be the dominant topic of British domestic politics. This could create completely new lines of battle in British domestic politics, especially if Scotland really leaves. Labour would have to reorient itself to be able to challenge the Tories and it's unclear if UKIP can build on this triumph and become a force in domestic politics or whether this victory was also their zenith and they will merge with a post-EU Tory party again.

[dps]

I suppose one of the takeaways from the referendum is that people care deeply about things other than pure economic interest.

Anybody that knows a damn thing about human nature could have told you that.

[CountDeMoney]

It takes more than a downward mark against growth to turn Britain into a genuinely poor country like Russia.

Oh, they won't be poor, they'll just never make back to the first team varsity squad.  By global standards, they'll be modern, healthy, relatively affluent--and Portugal.

[Legbiter]

I suppose one of the takeaways from the referendum is that people care deeply about things other than pure economic interest.

Anybody that knows a damn thing about human nature could have told you that.

Quite.

Checked how Dover, the British end of the Channel Tunnel to the continent voted, 60 percent voted to leave.

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/council-leader-hails-brexit-vote-97924/

[Valmy]

I suppose one of the takeaways from the referendum is that people care deeply about things other than pure economic interest.

Anybody that knows a damn thing about human nature could have told you that.

Well right because they always take what they have for granted. Anybody who pointed out they might lose something of value was shouted down as 'fear mongering' and so forth.

[Valmy]

Also Merkel going insane and declaring that Berlin had opened the doors to all comers sent a jolt through many EU countries.

Britain opted out of Schengen so why would that bother them?

[PJL]

I think what is happening is that de-industrialisation in various countries has meant that the old working classes are now reverting to their pre-industrial revolution era peasant type. Therefore these groups are now more socially conservative than before and turning to right wing groups. So it is probably a mistake to pander to these groups. Instead rejuvenation and redevelopment projects are needed in these areas in order to give these people a better opportunity and help their social awareness and conscious.

[Camerus]

Speculating on the implications for future British growth at this time is like diddling in the dark, given that nobody knows exactly the kind of relationship but I'm just going to negotiate with the EU or with other markets. I wouldn't be surprised (though it's not the only possible outcome) if both the British and EU elites who will be the ones conducitng the negotiations you have a vested interest in the status quo opt for more minimum withdrawal, and one with very limited economic effects.

[garbon]

Speculating on the implications for future British growth at this time is like diddling in the dark

You monster, you prefer to do it with the lights on?!

[Hamilcar]

Speculating on the implications for future British growth at this time is like diddling in the dark, given that nobody knows exactly the kind of relationship but I'm just going to negotiate with the EU or with other markets. I wouldn't be surprised (though it's not the only possible outcome) if both the British and EU elites who will be the ones conducitng the negotiations you have a vested interest in the status quo opt for more minimum withdrawal, and one with very limited economic effects.

The City is dead in the water, and new investment by multinationals in the Europe-area will grind to a halt. Nobody in their right mind would build a new factory or open a new regional HQ in the UK now.

[Hamilcar]

Buy Frankfurt high end property right now to profit from all the financial sector people relocating there soon.