Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Tamas]

To me the realities point to not being bounced into this, vote down the deal so the government has to seek an extension. Then going either to an election or a confirmatory referendum on the deal.

Sure, but look back at the past 3 years.

If we go reject -> extension, absolutely NOTHING is going to happen until 3 weeks before the new deadline.


Right now, they have Johnson by the balls. Tomorrow they could force an addendum of a confirmatory referendum to the condition of accepting the deal and they'd have the majority for it thanks to the tossed-out Tories. The EU would grant the necessary extension, and we'd either have an acceptable deal, or we'd remain.


And yes of course the proposed WA would leave the no-deal door open and the reckless fucktards would still have to be fought to establish the final form of Britain's place in Europe. But how is that any different from the default situation?  Would it not be better to fight that fight with the country having a stable and open relationship with the EU while it is being fought, instead of this never-ending cliff-edge uncertainty?

[Sheilbh]

Sure, but look back at the past 3 years.

If we go reject -> extension, absolutely NOTHING is going to happen until 3 weeks before the new deadline.

Maybe. I actually think that could be when you get a confirmatory referendum passed or an election (big debate in Labour over sequencing).

Right now, they have Johnson by the balls. Tomorrow they could force an addendum of a confirmatory referendum to the condition of accepting the deal and they'd have the majority for it thanks to the tossed-out Tories. The EU would grant the necessary extension, and we'd either have an acceptable deal, or we'd remain.

They have him by the balls until tomorrow. If Parliament agrees to the deal in principle (this is partly what the Letwin amendment is trying to fix) then there's no legal need to get an extension. If the ERG then have a change of heart and vote against the actual WA, we crash out on 31 October. The Letwin amendment basically changes Johnson's deal so even if Parliament approve it he then has to get an extension. At which point they can add a confirmatory referendum or we can have an election with reasonably clear range of options (this deal, a new deal + referendum, revoke).

And yes of course the proposed WA would leave the no-deal door open and the reckless fucktards would still have to be fought to establish the final form of Britain's place in Europe. But how is that any different from the default situation?  Would it not be better to fight that fight with the country having a stable and open relationship with the EU while it is being fought, instead of this never-ending cliff-edge uncertainty?

The difference is having that fight while we're in the EU v having the fight after we're out. Also, though I'm not convinced Johnson will get a huge majority even if he does get a deal, but he might win and then it's just a fight within the Tory party (like 2016-7).

[Josquius]

It's looking disturbingly likely that the dickensians will get their way here.

[Sheilbh]

One other thought on why you might not vote for this deal. If you're an opposition MP who's tempted, doesn't a lot of it boil down to how much you trust Boris Johnson?

And on that front I imagine the DUP might want to have a word.

[Tamas]

One other thought on why you might not vote for this deal. If you're an opposition MP who's tempted, doesn't a lot of it boil down to how much you trust Boris Johnson?

I don't get that part. If the WA is voted on it must be enacted isn't it?

[Tamas]

Also, I think it would be important to use this chance to force Johnson into holding a confirmatory referendum, because Remain would win that one.

[Josquius]

 The trouble is the labour leadership seem convinced they could somehow find a better deal on which to run a referendum.
Logically though yeah. Would be much better to call for a referendum against this. A good brexit just isn't happening.

One other thought on why you might not vote for this deal. If you're an opposition MP who's tempted, doesn't a lot of it boil down to how much you trust Boris Johnson?

I don't get that part. If the WA is voted on it must be enacted isn't it?

.
An awful lot of the agreement is based on British style good faith and vague wording.

[Tamas]

Fair enough. But with the UK out of the EU, won't any government just need simple majority to leave whatever trade deal Britain will have with the EU at the time to get to where the hard brexiters want to get?

I think you guys have the same issue many of the MPs have. The only scenario giving the outcome and the kind of safety of it that you want is remaining in the EU. Pretending (the MPs, not you) they want to deliver Brexit, while not letting go of the above, just predestines everything to a deadlock until eventually some alignment of stars will allow the hardliners to leave with no deal.

[Sheilbh]

Fair enough. But with the UK out of the EU, won't any government just need simple majority to leave whatever trade deal Britain will have with the EU at the time to get to where the hard brexiters want to get?

Yeah. I mean technically any law can be passed or abolished by a simple majority. The basis of our system is no Parliament can bind a future Parliament. I think there's an unknown question in how we deal with trade deals. It's something we've outsourced to the EU for the last 40 years, but they have the potential to be really contentious politically. It'll be interesting.

I think you guys have the same issue many of the MPs have. The only scenario giving the outcome and the kind of safety of it that you want is remaining in the EU. Pretending (the MPs, not you) they want to deliver Brexit, while not letting go of the above, just predestines everything to a deadlock until eventually some alignment of stars will allow the hardliners to leave with no deal.

My issue is I hate Johnson and the Tories and want to burn Eton to the ground and salt the earth. In the meanwhile I want them to fail at everything because they are bad for this country. While I apprecaite that may a be a tad irrational, I think it does reflect a large portion of Labour MPs and is why most of them will never vote for this deal - or Theresa May's

[Sheilbh]

I don't get that part. If the WA is voted on it must be enacted isn't it?

So, from a Labour perspective the sections that were in May's WA that aren't in Johnson's include:
EU tax avoidance regulations
Non-regression on environmental regulations
Non-regression on EU law standards around fundamental labour rights and health safety, plus commitment to ratify the social charter and ILO standards
EU based principles of competition law.

There's also stuff around state aid. Now Johnson is stating that he will maintain all of those standards, of course, but he has chosen to move them from the legally binding text to general declarations. Everything in this deal is about maximum freedom to diverge for Great Britain plus special circumstances for Northern Ireland. All we have, instead, is Johnson's word that we won't diverge.

Also, I think it would be important to use this chance to force Johnson into holding a confirmatory referendum, because Remain would win that one.

Maybe. I think there's a reasonable chance leave does better

[mongers]

'I tried my best I really did, but the MPs rejected it because they put career/party before country, they forced me to sign the letter to the EU, but now we are going to have an election, throw out those do nothing unpatriotic politicians and the conservatives win an outright majority, I secure my leadership for 10 years and get my-god given place in history.'

The extent of Johnson's thinking about Brexit now?

[Richard Hakluyt]

I just can't think of the likes of Raab without my blood pressure reaching dangerous levels. Whatever happens i want life for the tories to become intolerable. I have made a good start by being extremely rude to tories and brexiters at parties and hanging out with left-wing Scotsmen. (Not as difficult as it might sound given my social milieu; but even so i have lost all patience with the proto-fascist bastards).

[mongers]

I just can't think of the likes of Raab without my blood pressure reaching dangerous levels. Whatever happens i want life for the tories to become intolerable. I have made a good start by being extremely rude to tories and brexiters at parties and hanging out with left-wing Scotsmen. (Not as difficult as it might sound given my social milieu; but even so i have lost all patience with the proto-fascist bastards).

I agree with you, I'm now actively doing something similar.   

[mongers]

Show down in the Commons happening today. 

[Maladict]

Show down in the Commons happening today. 

Pretty good so far