Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

That's an Irish insanity

[Tamas]

It's ridiculous how this is going down exactly like May's deal. Many people suggested Johnson would have no choice but to retrace May's journey, and they are being proven right.


But I am now more angry at the opposition parties. Even the LibDems seem to be dancing back from committing to anything.


This is the clearest and best chance to end the deadlock via a referendum. The can attach one to the acceptance of the deal, and then vote for it without losing face or having to endure Johnson claiming victory because of it.

Then, a referendum of Deal vs. Remain would be one that could lay this shit to rest. And even if we leave via this Withdrawal Agreement, they'll be politically undamaged to fight the next election and seek a final trade deal with the EU on their preferences.


But it seems like they might just vote it down, force an extension to next year, sigh their usual sigh of relief and relax until mid-January.

[garbon]

I don't see how the conservatives wouldn't get a boost from being able to note they are the ones who actually got a withdrawal agreement passed.

Of course, with the exception of Byzantine rules for NI, I don't really see how this agreement moves the needle from May's as reported.

[Tamas]

I don't see how the conservatives wouldn't get a boost from being able to note they are the ones who actually got a withdrawal agreement passed.

Of course, with the exception of Byzantine rules for NI, I don't really see how this agreement moves the needle from May's as reported.

If the opposition parties force a confirmatory referendum as the price for their support, that will make it THEIR solution to Brexit. They'll grasp the initiative. Also, they can wash their hands on the ultimate outcome, which I think they are very, very eager to achieve.

[garbon]

I don't see how the conservatives wouldn't get a boost from being able to note they are the ones who actually got a withdrawal agreement passed.

Of course, with the exception of Byzantine rules for NI, I don't really see how this agreement moves the needle from May's as reported.

If the opposition parties force a confirmatory referendum as the price for their support, that will make it THEIR solution to Brexit. They'll grasp the initiative. Also, they can wash their hands on the ultimate outcome, which I think they are very, very eager to achieve.

I don't see how that works out. All they will be doing is 'delaying' the withdrawal agreement that the Conservatives have established. They have then hope for remain to win as otherwise what was point of delaying implementation of the withdrawal agreement?

Besides Brexit fatigue all around, I don't know why the opposition should be anymore willing to support this deal vs May's.

[Tamas]

I don't see how the conservatives wouldn't get a boost from being able to note they are the ones who actually got a withdrawal agreement passed.

Of course, with the exception of Byzantine rules for NI, I don't really see how this agreement moves the needle from May's as reported.

If the opposition parties force a confirmatory referendum as the price for their support, that will make it THEIR solution to Brexit. They'll grasp the initiative. Also, they can wash their hands on the ultimate outcome, which I think they are very, very eager to achieve.

I don't see how that works out. All they will be doing is 'delaying' the withdrawal agreement that the Conservatives have established. They have then hope for remain to win as otherwise what was point of delaying implementation of the withdrawal agreement?

Besides Brexit fatigue all around, I don't know why the opposition should be anymore willing to support this deal vs May's.

I think Brexit fatigue should be a big concern for them.

What are the actual grounds for them to renounce this deal, apart from empty platitudes like endangering workers' rights? Well yes it does, leaving the EU does that. But as a Guardian columnist pointed out, the opposition parties, Labour at least, voted FOR the referendum, FOR the triggering of Article 50. So if they agreed with that, what is there to disagree in this WA?

[garbon]

I don't see how the conservatives wouldn't get a boost from being able to note they are the ones who actually got a withdrawal agreement passed.

Of course, with the exception of Byzantine rules for NI, I don't really see how this agreement moves the needle from May's as reported.

If the opposition parties force a confirmatory referendum as the price for their support, that will make it THEIR solution to Brexit. They'll grasp the initiative. Also, they can wash their hands on the ultimate outcome, which I think they are very, very eager to achieve.

I don't see how that works out. All they will be doing is 'delaying' the withdrawal agreement that the Conservatives have established. They have then hope for remain to win as otherwise what was point of delaying implementation of the withdrawal agreement?

Besides Brexit fatigue all around, I don't know why the opposition should be anymore willing to support this deal vs May's.

I think Brexit fatigue should be a big concern for them.

What are the actual grounds for them to renounce this deal, apart from empty platitudes like endangering workers' rights? Well yes it does, leaving the EU does that. But as a Guardian columnist pointed out, the opposition parties, Labour at least, voted FOR the referendum, FOR the triggering of Article 50. So if they agreed with that, what is there to disagree in this WA?

Presumably on the same basis of what they took issue with May's deal.

[Tamas]

But,

If they agree with leaving the EU with a deal then they must eventually need to agree to a deal. If not this then what? There are already tons of concessions in it, the EU is risking the integrity of the single market by creating a smugglers' paradise in Northern Ireland, from where especially with the ease of online commerce, ultra-cheap American food products, plus un-tariffed electric etc. products, not to mention cheap unregulated/unchecked Chinese shit, will flood EU markets. This is awesome for Northern Ireland. They get to stay in the EU while also leaving it.


If some MPs want something even better than this, they are deranged. But of course, I don't think any of them actually thinks that. It is just political self-interest that makes them torpedo a realistic deal.

That's why they should link it to a second referendum. Then they'd -in worst case- succumb to a reinforced will of the people, not Johnson's whim, which is a politically neutral result for them. And best case, on the referendum remain would win and they would become the victors for forcing the whole thing.

[Josquius]

It is worth saying that the further we go from the EU, the worse the deal will be economically. But that's what Brexiteers want. They want to move further away so they can do separate trade agreements and diverge on regulations. So that Economist headline is true, but it's also the point of what the government's been trying to do.

Latest best guess from the FT is very tight

Who is this lunatic lib dem

?

[garbon]

But,

If they agree with leaving the EU with a deal then they must eventually need to agree to a deal. If not this then what? There are already tons of concessions in it, the EU is risking the integrity of the single market by creating a smugglers' paradise in Northern Ireland, from where especially with the ease of online commerce, ultra-cheap American food products, plus un-tariffed electric etc. products, not to mention cheap unregulated/unchecked Chinese shit, will flood EU markets. This is awesome for Northern Ireland. They get to stay in the EU while also leaving it.


If some MPs want something even better than this, they are deranged. But of course, I don't think any of them actually thinks that. It is just political self-interest that makes them torpedo a realistic deal.

That's why they should link it to a second referendum. Then they'd -in worst case- succumb to a reinforced will of the people, not Johnson's whim, which is a politically neutral result for them. And best case, on the referendum remain would win and they would become the victors for forcing the whole thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/18/boris-johnson-launches-frantic-sales-pitch-of-brexit-deal-ahead-of-commons-vote-politics-live?page=with:block-5da99ab58f08c78d1cb4e640#block-5da99ab58f08c78d1cb4e640

The government may not be publishing an economic impact assessment of Boris Johnson's Brexit deal ahead of tomorrow's vote (see 11.50am), but MPs who cannot wait for the official verdict could do a lot worse than read this report on the topic published at the weekend (pdf). It was published by the UK in a Changing Europe, an academic research network, and it is based on economic modelling of Theresa May's deal, Johnson's deal, and a WTO Brexit (ie, no deal).

The report says UK trade would be lower under all three options than it would be if the UK stayed in the EU, with Johnson's plan being considerably more damaging than May's. Looking ahead 10 years, it estimates that Johnson's plan would cost Britons £800 per head.

[Sheilbh]

If some MPs want something even better than this, they are deranged. But of course, I don't think any of them actually thinks that. It is just political self-interest that makes them torpedo a realistic deal.

But again it depends what you mean by better. For the Tories the harder a deal the better, for Labour the softer a deal the better, for the Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid they don't want any deal.

In part it's political self-interest but it's also that they have different views on what good looks like.

Edit: Also killing the Labour vote for a deal is all the ERG members talking about their cunning plan. Basically if the trade talks fail by the end of the transition period, the default is no deal. Which has them all very excited but their excitement should be a big red flag of what they're going to try and do.

[Tamas]

My whole point is that it is high time to drop what their (all MPs) ideal uncompromising outcome is, and start embracing bloody realities.

[celedhring]

Edit: Also killing the Labour vote for a deal is all the ERG members talking about their cunning plan. Basically if the trade talks fail by the end of the transition period, the default is no deal. Which has them all very excited but their excitement should be a big red flag of what they're going to try and do.

So they'd try to scupper a trade deal with the EU? 

They'd be out by then, why the histrionic self-harm?

[Sheilbh]

So they'd try to scupper a trade deal with the EU? 

They'd be out by then, why the histrionic self-harm?

The better access under the trade deal the closer alignment to EU regulations is required. For the Brexiteer right, the entire benefit of leaving the EU is the ability to diverge on regulations. So they would rather a very minimal trade deal and probably no trade deal over one which has close alignment with EU regs.

My whole point is that it is high time to drop what their (all MPs) ideal uncompromising outcome is, and start embracing bloody realities.

But I don't think you can moan about them having uncompromising ideals and blame it on political self-interest.

But the realities are in favour of not doing a deal unless you are a Tory. For Lib Dems the European Court have confirmed that the UK can revoke unilaterally. For Labour this deal has moved workers, consumer and environmental regulations from the legally binding bit to the "future intentions" bit - it's clear that Johnson wants maximum freedom to deregulate. And for all MPs, this is a government that has a majority of -45.

To me the realities point to not being bounced into this, vote down the deal so the government has to seek an extension. Then going either to an election or a confirmatory referendum on the deal.

[Richard Hakluyt]

They want to return to the 19th century; grind the workers' faces into the dirt and monopolise the profits for their own class; you can't do that within the European Union (edit : or even with any close relationship with the EU).