Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

I have always hoped that Johnson is such a bastard that he would do that and we could get a remain vote now that the consequences are better known.

[celedhring]

Wouldn't the UK need to ask for an extension in order to get the referendum done?

[Maladict]

I have always hoped that Johnson is such a bastard that he would do that and we could get a remain vote now that the consequences are better known.

The referendum would be whether or not to accept the deal, not a question whether or not to leave, right?

Besides, I think a referendum on the deal will pass, people just want to move on.

[Tamas]

I have always hoped that Johnson is such a bastard that he would do that and we could get a remain vote now that the consequences are better known.

The referendum would be whether or not to accept the deal, not a question whether or not to leave, right?

Besides, I think a referendum on the deal will pass, people just want to move on.

It should be a referendum between the deal and remaining. Any other kind of referendum is pointless indeed.

[Richard Hakluyt]

As Tamas says, that way we get a resolution.

[Tamas]

First, EU regulations will apply to all goods in Northern Ireland. This means checks at the border.

Second, NI will remain in the UK's customs territory. It will therefore benefit from UK trade policy. But it will remain an entry point into the single market. So UK authorities will apply UK tariffs to countries coming from third countries as long as goods entering NI are not at risk of entering the single market. If they are at risk of entering the single market, EU tariffs will apply.

Third, on VAT, the plan will maintain the integrity of the single market, while respecting the UK's digital wishes.

And, fourth, there will be a consent mechanism. Four years after the arrangements starts, the Northern Ireland assembly will decide by a simple majority if these arrangements stay.

I must say on first read this sounds better for the UK and NI than May's version. Especially for the NI economy, which can become a real hub of grey-market cheap US shit, once Johnson will be done opening the British markets to the US.

[Sheilbh]

Well DUP has now said no.

Reminds me of the old Sir Edward Carson line on the 1921 Treaty: "What a fool I was! I was only a puppet, and so was Ulster, and so was Ireland, in the political game that was to get the Conservative Party into Power."

Edit: Interesting to see if Johnson has the votes. I can't see it yet

I think it's very unlikely many Labour MPs will vote yes (especially now they've shunted the level playing field into the PD), Lib Dems, DUP, Greens, Plaid and TIG will vote no.

It will come down to the 21 expelled moderate Tories and the ERG getting on board. Or, perhaps Johnson offers a second IndyRef for Scotland in exchange for SNP votes?

Edit: One other thought if there's an election I think this could hurt Labour and mean the Lib Dems do better. Especially as Labour wouldn't be able to say if you waste your vote on the Lib Dems you're just making it likely that there'll be a Tory no deal.

Tories: Deal
Labour: Re-open negotiations for another two years followed by a referendum (our position in such referendum tbc)
Lib Dems: Revoke

[garbon]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/oct/17/eu-leaders-gather-for-summit-as-boris-johnson-scrambles-to-get-backing-for-brexit-deal-politics-live

Government loses vote on procedure for Saturday that could allow MPs to close Benn Act loophole

The government has lost the first vote on the Saturday sitting. Sir Oliver Letwin's amendment (see 1.29pm) was passed by 287 votes to 275 - a majority of 12.

Explaining his amendment in the debate Letwin said this would allow the government motion on Saturday to be amended. He implied it would allow MPs to insist on Boris Johnson requesting an extension anyway, and only withdrawing that request when the legislation for his deal has passed.

The purpose of the amendment here is very simple, it is to permit amendments to be moved, if selected by [the Speaker], on Saturday, and be voted upon.

And that will enable those of us, like me, who wish to support and carry through and eventually see the ratification of this deal, not to put us in the position of allowing the government off the Benn Act hook on Saturday, but only at a time when the bill has been taken through both Houses of Parliament and legislated on.

Letwin was referring to a loophole in the Benn Act which means Johnson only has to send a letter requesting an extension if MPs fail to pass a motion backing a deal by Saturday. In theory they could pass that motion, but then fail to pass the withdrawal agreement legislation, which would mean the UK leaving without a deal on 31 October.

The Letwin amendment should also make it possible for MPs to table an amendment saying Johnson's deal should be subject to a second referendum. (See 9.13am.)

After the vote on the amendment, the motion as amended was approved without a vote.

[Maladict]

'There will be no prolongation' - What Juncker said about not allowing an extension

This is what Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, said about ruling out a Brexit extension. He was speaking to reporters on the "red carpet" where leaders speak to journalists as they arrive for the summit.

Asked if he thought the deal would pass parliament, he said: "It has to."

Then he added:

    Anyway, there will be no prolongation.

He went on:

    We have concluded a deal. So there is not an argument for delay. It has to be done now.

Asked by another journalist if he would rule out an extension if Boris Johnson asked for that, Juncker replied:

    I gave a brief doorstop with Boris Johnson ... half an hour ago and I was ruling out that there will be any kind of prolongation. If we have a deal, we have a deal, and there is no need for prolongation. That is not only the British view; that is my view too.

Asked again if he would officially rule out an extension, he replied:

Yes. We have a deal. So why should we have a prolongation?

[Sheilbh]

Helpful for Johnson (just like Varadkar and Barnier). But it's a Council decision

[Tamas]

So is it just me or this really is a better deal for the UK than the previous one? It's largely the same content, sure, but much more wishy-washy, and I think if it gets enacted it will be an open wound on the integrity of the Single Market.

[garbon]

Helpful for Johnson (just like Varadkar and Barnier). But it's a Council decision

It is also clear the British do not speak with one voice.

[Sheilbh]

Nigel Farage is now defending the Benn Act:
"So an unelected, retiring bureaucrat says: No extension, take this new treaty or just leave.

He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itself to be a thuggocracy - power without accountability.

Appalling people."

[Tamas]

As if Juncker is constrained in any way by British law. But of course Farage knows that. What a twat.


Speaking of utter twats:

People's Vote MPs pulling back from having any second ref vote on Saturday - say it's now not the time, better to wait

[Valmy]

Better to wait? For what?