Who would you vote if the 2016 election is Trump vs. Sanders

[Eddie Teach]

Shush, you.

Right, I forgot this is Languish- where every conversation is an argument, and one can't simply add something extra without having it picked apart as a potential counterargument.

The only points I was actually refuting were that Walker was ever sane when it came to unions, and that Rubio should be considered an "establishment" candidate.

No read yours like it is lines of dialogue.

Bob Dole: Bob Dole agrees. Those candidates are all wrong for America. Vote Bob Dole!

[Admiral Yi]

Bush Sr. was a damn fine president.

He's also the perfect rebuttal to the complaint from the Hillary camp that it's sexist to call her shrill.  Bush Sr. got ragged on constantly for talking like a weenie.

[Valmy]

Read my lips: I might have to make tough compromises necessary for the health of the nation

Is what he should have said.

[The Brain]

DOSE LIPS

[Eddie Teach]

DOSE LIPS

Dough.

[Razgovory]

Bush Sr. was a damn fine president.

He's also the perfect rebuttal to the complaint from the Hillary camp that it's sexist to call her shrill.  Bush Sr. got ragged on constantly for talking like a weenie.

He was certainly the best President on international affairs since FDR.  It's interesting you bring up Hillary since she also has a strong foreign policy background.

[DontSayBanana]

Shush, you.

Right, I forgot this is Languish- where every conversation is an argument, and one can't simply add something extra without having it picked apart as a potential counterargument.

The only points I was actually refuting were that Walker was ever sane when it came to unions, and that Rubio should be considered an "establishment" candidate.

No read yours like it is lines of dialogue.

Oh, my bad.

[jimmy olsen]

The American Nightmare beckons.

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/122689/donald-trump-favorite-win-republican-primary

Donald Trump Is the Favorite to Win the Republican Primary


By Brian Beutler  @brianbeutler

The hopeful case for Republicans concerned about Donald Trump's persistent lead goes something like this:

At this point in the last Republican primary, Rick Perry was pulling away from Mitt Romney. He briefly opened up a 10-point lead, and then just as quickly gave way to pizza magnate Herman Cain, who in turn gave way to Newt Gingrich, and so it went until Romney cleaned up in the end. Yes, Romney polled better than Jeb Bush is currently polling, but Romney was pretty much alone among establishmentarian candidates, while Bush is splitting that share of the primary electorate with two or three other candidates. Likewise, in 2012, the reactionary share of the vote was about the same as it is now—larger than the establishment share—but it wasn't enough to win then, and it won't be enough to win this time around.

The differences between the 2012 and 2016 fields makes this rosy scenario hard to envision. Which is why Republicans are having a harder and harder time articulating scenarios in which Trump becomes a non-issue before the primaries, for reasons that don't involve nativist GOP voters undergoing a sudden, collective epiphany.

For this race to play out like the last one did would require a series of increasingly unlikely assumptions to come to pass:

1) That the establishmentarian field winnows sooner than later.

In past cycles, the eventual nominee has benefited from consolidating the establishmentarian vote early. Today, Bush is splitting that vote with Marco Rubio and John Kasich and probably to some extent with Scott Walker, none of whom is likely to exit the race anytime soon.

2) Trump fades.

Trump does not appear to be an extinguishable threat, the way Perry, Cain, and Gingrich were. Trump might have hit his ceiling, but there's nothing in the offing right now that promises to drag him back down. If Ben Carson surges, that's not going to be at Trump's expense. It will be at the expense of the rest of the field.

3) As conservative also-rans drop out, their supporters break for establishment candidates, rather than for Trump.

This seemed plausible earlier in the race, but Trump is now not only leading the field, but he's also polling well as a second-choice candidate, along with Carson and Rubio. As the field narrows, these candidates will be likeliest to benefit. If Trump never collapses, Republicans will have to count on primary voters to coalesce around someone preferable. But it isn't clear that Carson's actually preferable, and it also isn't clear that Carson's and Walker's and Ted Cruz's and Mike Huckabee's supporters would break for Bush or even Rubio over Trump, after traveling so far with candidates who promised to meaningfully challenge their own party's establishment.

Short of sabotaging Trump by changing the rules in the middle of the race, which would risk driving him to mount an independent candidacy, the race itself will have to take on a completely new character for Trump to lose steam. Otherwise, he will win.

[alfred russel]

Donald Trump Is the Favorite to Win the Republican Primary

Tim, this is demonstrably untrue. Tim, can you find any betting site that has Trump with the best odds to get the nomination?

[Valmy]

The New Republic said it Dorsey. When has it ever been wrong before?

[Tonitrus]

Meh, Trump still has plenty of time to implode, but if he jumps ahead in polling with what has already come out of his mouth?  Pretty much means one of two things.

GOP primary voters have:

A. Lost their marbles.
B. Just want to watch the world burn.

[alfred russel]

I stand by my predictions from earlier:

Republican nomination: will not be Trump. His negatives are too high. Ultimately republicans won't nominate someone who will be a major liability in the general election.

Democratic nomination: will not be Sanders. They won't nominate someone associated with socialism. Hillary is the favorite, but I think a weak one--if she falters, I bet someone like O'Malley takes it from her.

[Phillip V]

I stand by my predictions from earlier:

Republican nomination: will not be Trump. His negatives are too high. Ultimately republicans won't nominate someone who will be a major liability in the general election.

Democratic nomination: will not be Sanders. They won't nominate someone associated with socialism. Hillary is the favorite, but I think a weak one--if she falters, I bet someone like O'Malley takes it from her.

Trump's negatives have declined among voters month to month.

[Martinus]

According to the latest Iowa poll, the top 3 are Trump, Carson, and Fiorina.  It's not until fourth place that you get, oh crap, Cruz.  Oy vey.

Fiorina doesn't seem to be crazy. Just a failed CEO with no compelling case to be president.

This is what happens when your establishment candidates are:

Bush--no one wants another Bush, at times it seems including the candidate
Walker--seems to have been infected with the crazy virus recently, which is in heavy circulation during republican primaries
Rubio--he may be a guy to watch longer term, but what a time to be hispanic after Trump outs them as rapists.
Perry--I had some reason why he isn't a strong candidate, but I can't think of it. Oops.

Bush	Do we really want 41,43, and 45 to all be Bushes?
Walker	It's not new- it's just finally getting national attention that if you say "public sector union" in the mirror 3 times, Walker will magically appear, frothing at the mouth.  Even the Koch brothers know better than to blatantly go after unions in a national election cycle.
Rubio	There's nothing establishment about Rubio.  He rode the Tea Party wave, just like Cruz.  He's slightly less mouth-frothy, but not once you bring up Cuba.
Perry	Having criminal charges for abuse of office pending tends to put a damper on a presidential campaign.

What a bizarre conversation.

It reminded me a bit of the absurdist theatre.

[Martinus]

You guys are struggling with Trump winning the nomination, and struggling brings suffering. Instead embrace the possibility of a man like Trump running for the President of the US and go with the flow.