[board] The Battlestar Galactica Languish Project

[Barrister]

Yep, especially since even talks of the nature of "I can give a total value of about X, what about you guys?" are verboten.

You can't provide any numbers, but you can provide some description e.g. low, high, some, lots.  That should give us a better idea if we start communicating in those kinds of terms.

[Martinus]

Are there any possibilities of increasing Food? We seem to be running low on that resource.

[grumbler]

Well, just to speculate here, but if Lt. Thrace was a Cylon, she could have sabotaged the crisis with her engineering, exactly because she was knowing very well that if push came to shove and it was clear there was a sabotage, it would be much easier for everyone to assume it was me and not her, seeing how I'm apparently the prime suspect around here. 

Could have, but look at the situation and think about whether or not a Cylon would throw away a high-value card just to kill a fuel or food.  There are much more critical crises than that, where failure means lots of attackers or something.

[grumbler]

OOC: Baltar's "weakness" is that he starts with two loyalty cards, not one. It's enough that one of them is a Cylon and he is a Cylon. So yes, he has a higher chance to start as a Cylon than anyone else (albeit the increase is marginal imo).

OOC: 100% greater in the current round (though there may be no Cylons at all yet, as only 7 of 13 cards have been dealt), and 50% greater overall.  That's not "marginal!" 

[grumbler]

Are there any possibilities of increasing Food? We seem to be running low on that resource.

There are 2 "Food rationing" quorum cards that can (die roll) gain one food each.

[Barrister]

OOC: Baltar's "weakness" is that he starts with two loyalty cards, not one. It's enough that one of them is a Cylon and he is a Cylon. So yes, he has a higher chance to start as a Cylon than anyone else (albeit the increase is marginal imo).

OOC: 100% greater in the current round (though there may be no Cylons at all yet, as only 7 of 13 cards have been dealt), and 50% greater overall.  That's not "marginal!" 

It's 100% greater chance, but what is the base chance?

[garbon]

There are 2 "Food rationing" quorum cards that can (die roll) gain one food each.

I think Quorum will need to get its affairs in order soon.

[Martinus]

OOC: Baltar's "weakness" is that he starts with two loyalty cards, not one. It's enough that one of them is a Cylon and he is a Cylon. So yes, he has a higher chance to start as a Cylon than anyone else (albeit the increase is marginal imo).

OOC: 100% greater in the current round (though there may be no Cylons at all yet, as only 7 of 13 cards have been dealt), and 50% greater overall.  That's not "marginal!" 

It's 100% greater chance, but what is the base chance?

It depends on the order of the draw for an individual character.

Assuming we are talking about the first character, it's 16% (100%-10/12*100%) for a "normal" character vs. 32% (100%-(10/12*100%)*(9/11*100%)) for Baltar.

[grumbler]

It depends on the order of the draw for an individual character.

Assuming we are talking about the first character, it's 16% for a "normal" character vs. 32% for Baltar.

Actually, it is independent of the order of draw.

BB, in the first card laydown, there are 12 cards, of which 2 are Cylons.  Two are dealt to Baltar, and one to each of the rest of us.  5 or not dealt yet.  There is thus a 5/12 chance that there is only one Cylon to start, and a 25/144 chance that there are no Cylons to start.

After we travel 4 jump distances (ie get half-way to our goal, not four jumps per se) the "Sleeper agent" phase kicks in.  An additional "sympathizer" card gets shuffled into the remaining cards, and then each of us gets one.  So, there will now be at least one Cylon (could be only one because the initial Cylon player can get the Cylon card again) and possibly a sympathizer, unless an existing Cylon gets the sympathizer card.

[Barrister]

It depends on the order of the draw for an individual character.

Assuming we are talking about the first character, it's 16% (100%-10/12*100%) for a "normal" character vs. 32% (100%-(10/12*100%)*(9/11*100%)) for Baltar.

I would say that's a more than marginal increase...

[Martinus]

Well, it's still a distinct possibility that none of us is a Cylon. Which, considering we seem to be working together relatively well (other than perhaps the somewhat erratic behaviour of the Admiral) doesn't seem so far off. Meaning: we have Sleepers. 

[Barrister]

Well, it's still a distinct possibility that none of us is a Cylon. Which, considering we seem to be working together relatively well (other than perhaps the somewhat erratic behaviour of the Admiral) doesn't seem so far off. Meaning: we have Sleepers. 

I agree.  There's nothing in particular that would point to us having a Cylon agent amongst us at this point.

[grumbler]

I agree.  There's nothing in particular that would point to us having a Cylon agent amongst us at this point.

True, but we need to keep in mind that odds of zero Cylons are only about 1 in 6.  On the one hand, no Cylons would get us halfway to our goal without much sabotage, but it would also leave little time to find the Cylons once the Sleeper Agent phase is complete.

We just have to make the best of it and keep our eyes open.

[Tamas]

Time to sleep.

Will be on for about 3 hours from 8 hours from now, so that should be plenty of time to resolve Berkut's turn and give you guys a crisis card to think about while I'll be away.

[JacobL]

At least the fuel wasn't lost.