Scottish Independence

[Jacob]

This isn't Eastern Europe.

Heh, what a shitty ad hom. Especially coming from a half-Croat. At least Poles and Hungarians did not murder each other within the last generation.

Well, I'm pretty sure that in the event of a yes vote, things will play out more along the lines of Norway or Canada gaining independence and the split up of Czechoslovakia, rather than the disintegration of Yugoslavia, the establishment of the Donetsk Republic, or the partition of Sudan.

[jimmy olsen]

You guys take this awfully lightly. 300 years old country destroyed (yes, destroyed) because people dislike the "bedroom tax"

Also, if based on this, City of London would decide that they'd rather suffocate in their piles of cash instead of financing the rest of the UK's existence and opted for independence or some sort of city state status, would that be also fine to decide on a 50% vote? Where does this thing stop?

If it got to the point where Londoners had developed their own governing institutions, political boundaries and such a strong identity to the point where they felt it necessary to dissolve their bonds with the rest of England, then yes I don't see why not.

I think - no matter the outcome - that this is a testament to British character and democracy. It's how it's supposed to work.

Completely disagree.

[Warspite]

The UK leaving the EU is a pretty huge assumption contingent on the Tories winning a parliamentary majority, potentially after just losing the UK, while also failing to get any sort of compromise renegotiation with the EU, and after all that assuming that the UK In campaign, when mobilised, does not sway voters the other way.

Even if Tories lose the next election, they are like hell not going to lose it to labour or lib dems. They may lose to UKiP though.

UKIP is not going to win a parliamentary majority.

Anti-CEE immigrant sentiments are strong now in certain parts of the country, but growth and rising incomes may also erode this. Consider also that no political party has fought an election on immigration and won. And again, it's silly to assume the most vocal faction will carry the day when their opponents have not yet mobilised their campaign.

Again, mainly because Scotland voted predominantly labour. This is going to change now.
[/quote]

Please point me to the elections where the parliamentary majority was due to the Scottish vote?

[Jacob]

Sure but then I also see it as a testament that the UK failed at establishing a solid British identity. I guess that's also a testament to British character but not in a good vein.

I think "establishing a solid identity" is way down the line of priorities than "equitable and fair mechanisms for dealing with fundamental disagreements".

Putin is working really hard, and successfully too it seems, at establishing and bolstering a solid Russian identity; and he is prioritizing that over democratic mechanisms for resolving fundamental disagreements.

I prefer the British way, by far.

[Jacob]

Completely disagree.

Do you have some sort of reason or argument for your position?

[Martinus]

Still, your response to Tamas was ad hominem, and quite racist at that, as views expressed by Tamas have been shared in many Western media, eg the Economist which is predicting a very messy divorce - so it's not like Tamas (who has, nb, been living in London for a while) is some Eastern European yokel who cant fathom how civilized nations work.

[PJL]

Even if Tories lose the next election, they are like hell not going to lose it to labour or lib dems. They may lose to UKiP though.

Seriously WTF. Even Farrage & UKIP supported aren't that swiveled-eyed to think they'll actually win the next election. Maybe 12 seats max (more likely 3-4).

[Martinus]

This isn't Eastern Europe.

Heh, what a shitty ad hom. Especially coming from a half-Croat. At least Poles and Hungarians did not murder each other within the last generation.

Well, I'm pretty sure that in the event of a yes vote, things will play out more along the lines of Norway or Canada gaining independence and the split up of Czechoslovakia, rather than the disintegration of Yugoslavia, the establishment of the Donetsk Republic, or the partition of Sudan.

Has anyone been suggesting that? I think all Tamas is saying that the split up will not be very amicable, with each side being pressured by their electorates to be tough and not give up things too easily - but I dont think he is suggesting any violent clashes of any kind.

[Warspite]

Still, your response to Tamas was ad hominem, and quite racist at that, as views expressed by Tamas have been shared in many Western media, eg the Economist which is predicting a very messy divorce - so it's not like Tamas (who has, nb, been living in London for a while) is some Eastern European yokel who cant fathom how civilized nations work.

His inability to understand why British people would be (a) happy to let Scotland go and (b) not actually that fussed about the whole thing suggests to me there is a cultural difference here. Did you not see earlier in the thread how both Sheilbh and I utterly failed to share his view on the breakup of the state?

[Sheilbh]

You guys take this awfully lightly. 300 years old country destroyed (yes, destroyed) because people dislike the "bedroom tax"

Not at all I'd be absolutely gutted if Scotland left. It'd be awful. But the country was created as a union of two nations and if they choose to leave then that's fine, but importantly it's their decision.

If we started constitutional tinkering (the first supermajority in British history) or threatening and blustering over that, I think that'd be far worse and counter-productive.

Every governing system needs to strike a balance between representation and stability.  A simple majority is by definition not very stable, since a very small shift of sentiment can lead the country a whole other way.  Therefore, on important issues that represent a major departure from status quo, it's certainly reasonable to demand that there is a damn solid consensus that the change is needed.  Obviously you can go too far, and too much codified stability will lead to practical instability, as people start pushing for changes outside of the system, but 50% + 1 is not that point.

Sure but in general, in comparison with many other countries the UK's actually been relatively stable over these past three hundred years with precisely that system.

The reforms that allowed that stability were, very often, passed on very slender margins. If we'd had to wait for two-thirds support the Great Reform Act wouldn't have happened, nor for that matter would the Act of Union and the Commons would never have passed the second Home Rule Bill. I think it'd have been far more likely to have seen violent change. If the worst that can be said for this system is that in three hundred years we never saw revolution, civil war, invasion or occupation and the worst that happened was that one constituent country peaceably left after a democratic vote then I don't think it's a damning indictment or a terribly unstable system.

Though I wouldn't advise it for general application

Edit: The British constitution always reminds me of that joke about the guy driving round rural Scotland trying to find a friend's house. He finally spots an old man walking on the road and pulls over to ask for direction. The old man takes in a deep breath and sighs 'well, I wouldn't start from here.'

I'm guessing there aren't any exit polls being published before the voting finishes?

No exit polls at all actually. The media are in purdah while the vote's happening.

The general election next year is certainly going to be rather interesting, regardless of the referendum vote.

I'm hoping that the referendum will prove to be the catalyst that moves us on from a rather stale period in British politics.

Same. There've been problems with it, but in general I've found the campaign pretty invigorating. I hope that it'll spark some much needed constitutional reform and a bit of democratic debate about it all down here too.

That is actually highly uncertain. With Scotland being much more pro-EU than the rest of Britain, with Scotland gone, it is quite likely that the UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum planned for 2016 (or was it 2017). Since Tamas's stay in London is based on the EU treaty's free movement of workers (something that is quite resented in Britain, especially when it comes to CEE migrants), it is quite possible that he will be told to leave once the UK leaves the EU.

Scotland isn't much more pro-EU than the rest of Britain. It's mildly less Eurosceptic and less anti-immigration (about 5%) but that's it. The polls suggest that Scottish opinion isn't that different than English on those subjects, they just have less traction up there. But that's down to the quirks of Scottish politics not them being much more pro-EU.

I don't want to pretend I know better than you or the natives. But when one side of the table started this whole shitstorm precisely because they felt they are not getting a good deal out of sharing stuff with the English, I would say that any kind of peaceful divorce would mean the London government bending down for the soap. Which will (I hope) not look that good for reelection chances.

It's worth remembering the reason we're having this referendum and this question is Cameron, not Salmond. Salmond was always rather vague about timing and wanted a three part referendum - independence, status quo or more devolution. Cameron really put the pressure on him to set a date and would only accept a yes or no independence question. That's possibly backfired (on both of them).

Again I don't think Scottish nationalism is to do with not getting a good deal out of sharing stuff. I don't think your too cynical materialist view works here. You'll note that none of the concessions the no leaders have been making have been about money, they've been about constitutional arrangements. That wasn't ever the issue.

Even if Tories lose the next election, they are like hell not going to lose it to labour or lib dems. They may lose to UKiP though.

UKIP have one MP

I don't doubt UKIP will be a possibly important destabilising effect in the next election. But they're not going to win it

Again, mainly because Scotland voted predominantly labour. This is going to change now.

Yes. But that doesn't mean the Tories would rule England in perpetuity. There's only been two elections since the war when the Scottish vote changed the result (1964 and 1974).

Still, your response to Tamas was ad hominem, and quite racist at that, as views expressed by Tamas have been shared in many Western media, eg the Economist which is predicting a very messy divorce - so it's not like Tamas (who has, nb, been living in London for a while) is some Eastern European yokel who cant fathom how civilized nations work.

Of course it'd be messy. But I don't think it'd poison relations or we'd start worrying about the people we 'gave away' or retaliating against Scotland and I don't think most British people would start supporting constitutional jiggery-pokery about Shetland or supermajorities to stymie the Scots.

The divorce would be difficult, we don't want them to go - but it's their decision and the right way to behave (both to win and for the union in the future) is to be fair and let them make their choice.

[DGuller]

Still, your response to Tamas was ad hominem, and quite racist at that, as views expressed by Tamas have been shared in many Western media, eg the Economist which is predicting a very messy divorce - so it's not like Tamas (who has, nb, been living in London for a while) is some Eastern European yokel who cant fathom how civilized nations work.

Now, now, let's not go overboard.

[Viking]

The Faroese independence movement has been mature for quite a while now. They do have one stumbling bloc. Denmark not only insists on them taking their share of the national debt, but also not paying them their subsidies anymore. So independence movement is mothballed for the time being.

[The Brain]

How base that Denmark lets money stand in the way of freedom.

[Jacob]

Still, your response to Tamas was ad hominem, and quite racist at that, as views expressed by Tamas have been shared in many Western media, eg the Economist which is predicting a very messy divorce - so it's not like Tamas (who has, nb, been living in London for a while) is some Eastern European yokel who cant fathom how civilized nations work.

You have legitimate reasons to bristle at East European ad homs, fair enough. Tamas, however, is definitely a bit of an East European yokel in his views, however long he's been in London; that's not based on regional prejudice, that's based on the things he says and has been saying over the years

[derspiess]

This thread could get messier than a majority yes vote.