Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

June 12 (Reuters) - New U.S. sanctions against Russia have forced an immediate suspension of trading in dollars and euros on its leading financial marketplace, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX.MM), opens new tab.
The exchange and the central bank rushed out statements on Wednesday - a public holiday in Russia - within an hour of Washington announcing a new round of sanctions aimed at cutting the flow of money and goods to sustain Russia's war in Ukraine

Apparently rubel is crashing and a couple of major banks at least have shut down their online banking sites to prevent a  digital bank run.

[Duque de Bragança]

General question for the thread: do you have any go-to analysts or commenters who you think are insightful on this war?

I have one, but in French, so only for Viper, Goupil Gris, Zoupa and the like.  He is also on twitter/X but the real analysis goes to his blog:

https://lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine

Former Navy troops colonel Michel Goya, now military historian.

Use the keyword Ukraine to see the evolution of the conflict. He has his own bias I suppose as in don't expect any if at all credence of (outrageously) pro-Kremlin sources, but he acknowledges when his or others' forecasts were wrong.

http://="https://lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine?updated-max=2022-01-2:hmm:"4t00:15:00%2b01:00&max-results="20&start=85&by-date=false"]https://lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine?updated-max=2022-01-24T00:15:00%2B01:00&max-results=20&start=85&by-date=false

It goes back to the 2014-2015 Donbass conflict, for those interested.
I have seen sometimes English translations of his articles but can't find them now. 

He also deals with other conflicts, such as in the Near/Middle East, or even the current or past waves of terrorism in France.

[The Minsky Moment]

General question for the thread: do you have any go-to analysts or commenters who you think are insightful on this war?

https://lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine

Former Navy troops colonel Michel Goya, now military historian.

I have his book "La Chair et L'Acier" right next to me on my shelf. But I haven't gotten to it yet.

[Razgovory]

The bean guy?

[Duque de Bragança]

General question for the thread: do you have any go-to analysts or commenters who you think are insightful on this war?

https://lavoiedelepee.blogspot.com/search/label/Ukraine

Former Navy troops colonel Michel Goya, now military historian.

I have his book "La Chair et L'Acier" right next to me on my shelf. But I haven't gotten to it yet.

He has written quite a few books indeed:

Michel Goya, la chair et l'acier : L'Armée française et l'invention de la guerre moderne, 1914-1918, Paris, Éditions Tallandier, 2004, 479 p. (ISBN 978-2-84734-163-8).

Michel Goya, Irak : les armées du chaos, Paris, Economica, coll. « Stratégies & doctrines », 2009, 2e éd., 292 p. (ISBN 978-2-7178-5698-9).

Michel Goya, L'Afghanistan, Paris, Éditions Tallandier, Coll. Contemporaine, octobre 2010, (ISBN 9782847346664).

Michel Goya, Res militaris : de l'emploi des forces armées au xxie siècle, Paris, Economica, coll. « Stratégies & doctrines », 2010, 263 p. (ISBN 978-2-7178-5833-4).

Michel Goya et Marc-Antoine Brillant, Israël contre le Hezbollah : chronique d'une défaite annoncée, 12 juillet-14 août 2006, Monaco, Éditions du Rocher, coll. « Lignes de feu », 2013, 177 p. (ISBN 978-2-268-07442-9).

Olivier Entraygues et Michel Goya, Philippe Pétain : le versant stratégique, Argos, coll. « Maitres de la stratégies », 2014, 160 p. (ISBN 9782366140194).

Michel Goya, L'Invention de la guerre moderne : du pantalon rouge au char d'assaut, 1871-1918, Paris, Éditions Tallandier, coll. « Texto / le goût de l'histoire », 2014, 479 p. (ISBN 979-10-210-0460-3).

Michel Goya, Sous le feu : La mort comme hypothèse de travail, Paris, Éditions Tallandier, 2014, 266 p. (ISBN 979-10-210-0430-6).

Michel Goya, Les Vainqueurs : Comment la France a gagné la Grande Guerre, Paris, Éditions Tallandier, 2018, 348 p. (ISBN 979-10-210-2541-7)
Trophée de la mairie du 8e - Prix du Guesclin 20189.

Michel Goya, S'adapter pour vaincre : Comment les armées évoluent, Paris, Perrin, 2019, 432 p. (ISBN 978-2-262-08111-9).

(en) Michel Goya (trad. Andrew Uffindell), Flesh and Steel During the Great War: The Transformation of the French Army and the Invention of Modern Warfare, Barnsley, Pen and Sword Military, 2020, 224 p. (ISBN 978-1-4738-8696-4).

Michel Goya, Une révolution militaire africaine : lutter contre les organisations armées en Afrique subsaharienne, Amazon, 2020 (ASIN B07L7BHMCR).

Michel Goya, Les Vainqueurs : comment la France a gagné la Grande Guerre, Paris, Éditions Tallandier, coll. « Texto », 2020, 320 p. (ISBN 979-10-210-4621-4).

Michel Goya, Le Temps des guépards : la Guerre mondiale de la France de 1961 à nos jours, Paris, Éditions Tallandier, 2022, 368 p. (ISBN 979-1021038875)10,11,12,13

Michel Goya et Jean Lopez, L'ours et le renard : Histoire immédiate de la guerre en Ukraine, Paris, Perrin, 25 mai 2023 (ISBN 978-2-262-10510-5).

Michel Goya, L'embrasement : Comprendre les enjeux de la guerre Israël-Hamas, Paris, Perrin | Robert Laffont, 14 mars 2024, 240 p. (ISBN 978-2-221-27544-3, OCLC 1429557670).

From French wikipedia

[Josquius]

A weird donation seems to be forthcoming - Argentina donating fighter bombers (alas not as I originally heard the very same ones they used in the Falklands) .
Argentina can't keep them for itself as it can't get parts for the ejector seats - they're made in Britain, who obviously block that export, and they can't find anyone else to do a knock off version for them.

https://www.ukrainianworldcongress.org/argentina-plans-to-deliver-supersonic-super-etendard-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/

[Zoupa]

Lots and lots of Russian vehicles getting zapped.

This is from the K-2 battalion. They're proper mad lads. I remember a video where one of their tanks ran out of ammo so they proceeded to use the tank to run over a russki trench over and over, effectively burying the fuckers alive. It was glorious.

[Jacob]

Additional US sanctions: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2404

[Tonitrus]

He never laid out his reasoning.  Kind of a *wave your hands* deterioration argument.

I'm guessing he assumed western aid would be more energetic and the AFU more successful wth their operations.
Too much optimism as it where.

CC has it right...and he did lay out his reasoning, and has been quite harsh on the West's failure to provide much for weapons/aid and also excessive timidity to the Russian nuclear bluster.  But also, as said, pretty generous with optimism.

[Tonitrus]

Additional US sanctions: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2404

All the incremental sanctions are silly and impotent.  We should just go full embargo.

[Jacob]

Ok no black humor, so long as the NATO alliance can keep the Ukrainians in the fight throughout this summer in matérial and ammo then the industrial might of the West will seriously begin to tell late next year.

Apparently Europe will be producing 1.7 million shells annually by the end of this year: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/by-the-end-of-the-year-the-eu-will-produce-1-7-million-shells-per-year/

If the ramp up stays on track, production capacity will reach 2.5 million shells per year by 2025.

[Sheilbh]

Apparently Europe will be producing 1.7 million shells annually by the end of this year: https://mil.in.ua/en/news/by-the-end-of-the-year-the-eu-will-produce-1-7-million-shells-per-year/

If the ramp up stays on track, production capacity will reach 2.5 million shells per year by 2025.

I'd slightly caveat that given that it's a statement by the relevant Commissioner and the previous EU goal was one million by March 2024 and it was actually 500,000.

It's increasing which is good but EU Commissioners especially have form for overpromising on Ukraine (alternative version: they set stretching political targets/goals). See the 1 million shells in 2023-4.

One challenge, for example, is that this is the shells capacity from this funding but the funding on powder is only enough for 1.3 million shells and the funding on explosives is enough for 800,000 shells. Europe is increasing capacity - their overall target is an industrial base capable of producing 2-2.5 million shells per year (to Russia's estimated 3 million). It might and I hope it does get to where Breton is suggesting in that time frame but I don't think it's a given and there's reasons to be a little cautious.

[Legbiter]

Putin announces his ceasefire conditions...

Ukraine would have to give up all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukraine promises to never join NATO. Oh, and all sanctions against Russia must be lifted.

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1801565113092084111

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Putin announces his ceasefire conditions...

Ukraine would have to give up all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Ukraine promises to never join NATO. Oh, and all sanctions against Russia must be lifted.

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1801565113092084111

That's like hitler asking in december 44 for a ceasefire in which he gets to keep all of Poland, the Low Countries and Norway with the allies retreating to the US.

[Valmy]

I mean I think Ukraine is aware they can surrender and Putin will stop firing on them.