Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

Indeed. I am worried.

I can easily see him playing that card without any intention of going through with it, and then finding himself going through with it.

Yeah Putin will need reminding in the coming weeks and months that mutually assured destruction still applies and the British, French and US nuclear arsenals are quite functional.

[Berkut]

Indeed. I am worried.

I can easily see him playing that card without any intention of going through with it, and then finding himself going through with it.

Yeah Putin will need reminding in the coming weeks and months that mutually assured destruction still applies and the British, French and US nuclear arsenals are quite functional.

That won't work though.

He isn't going to threaten to nuke London or New York. He is going to use a nuke against Ukraine. 

He is going to count on that not escalating to the strategic. 

[celedhring]

It was always going to come down to this, anyway - we've just reached that step much sooner than I anticipated due to Ukraine's successes. Ultimately, Putin is never going to give up, because that will be the end of his legacy as the restorer of Russia (and probably the end of other things for him), so he was always going to be left with the nuclear card.

[Legbiter]

That won't work though.

He isn't going to threaten to nuke London or New York. He is going to use a nuke against Ukraine.

He is going to count on that not escalating to the strategic.

Yeah I'm not sure Putin knows that it won't work. And threatening the Ukrainians with a nuclear strike seems even less likely to work given how incredibly brutalized the Ukrainian nation has been by the violence inflicted on them by the Russians, with probably at least 100,000 civilians killed overall, like in Mariupol over the last 7 months. And they know the only other option to fighting is to be lined up next to a ditch and shot for being too Ukrainian. 

And so the moron is raising the Russian war goal by ordering the annexation of several more Ukrainian oblasts while rushing conscripted, untrained meat with rusted-through equipment and 2 weeks of training to try and stabilize some sort of frontline before winter...

[Berkut]

That won't work though.

He isn't going to threaten to nuke London or New York. He is going to use a nuke against Ukraine.

He is going to count on that not escalating to the strategic.

Yeah I'm not sure Putin knows that it won't work. And threatening the Ukrainians with a nuclear strike seems even less likely to work given how incredibly brutalized the Ukrainian nation has been by the violence inflicted on them by the Russians, with probably at least 100,000 civilians killed overall, like in Mariupol over the last 7 months. And they know the only other option to fighting is to be lined up next to a ditch and shot for being too Ukrainian. 

And so the moron is raising the Russian war goal by ordering the annexation of several more Ukrainian oblasts while rushing conscripted, untrained meat with rusted-through equipment and 2 weeks of training to try and stabilize some sort of frontline before winter...

Well of course it wont fucking work. Nothing he has done has worked, why would that be any different?

That's what is so scary about this. There are not rational actors involved.

[Tamas]

It's depressing how all of you guys are reaching the same conclusion I have. We are so fucked.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

It's depressing how all of you guys are reaching the same conclusion I have. We are so fucked.

we're not fucked until we're fucked.

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new Perun dropped
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNLTE75B0Os&ab_channel=Perun

[Legbiter]

It's depressing how all of you guys are reaching the same conclusion I have. We are so fucked.

There will probably be nuclear brinkmanship, the US will go up in DEFCON like maybe in the Cuban Missile Crisis but Putin will lose the war. Most likely he survives, publicly purges a few scapegoats in his inner circle and hangs on while Russia decays from within as a pariah Chinese vassal.

A lot of Ladas will have to paid in compensation to Russian families as well.

[Maladict]

I'm thinking the taboo on the use of tactical nukes is going to be broken. MAD never really applied to tactical nukes anyway. Once the first one is dropped and there's no real response, we're in for some interesting times.

[Barrister]

That won't work though.

He isn't going to threaten to nuke London or New York. He is going to use a nuke against Ukraine.

He is going to count on that not escalating to the strategic.

Yeah I'm not sure Putin knows that it won't work. And threatening the Ukrainians with a nuclear strike seems even less likely to work given how incredibly brutalized the Ukrainian nation has been by the violence inflicted on them by the Russians, with probably at least 100,000 civilians killed overall, like in Mariupol over the last 7 months. And they know the only other option to fighting is to be lined up next to a ditch and shot for being too Ukrainian. 

And so the moron is raising the Russian war goal by ordering the annexation of several more Ukrainian oblasts while rushing conscripted, untrained meat with rusted-through equipment and 2 weeks of training to try and stabilize some sort of frontline before winter...

Well of course it wont fucking work. Nothing he has done has worked, why would that be any different?

That's what is so scary about this. There are not rational actors involved.

Putin is a rational actor though.

Never backing down and waiting for the west to crack has always worked for him.  It's perfectly rational.

I'm 99% sure that if Russia uses a limited nuclear strike in Ukraine the West will reply with a significant non-nuclear response.  I don't know exactly what - declare that no-fly zone, destroy the Sevastopol naval base, something like that.

[Barrister]

I'm thinking the taboo on the use of tactical nukes is going to be broken. MAD never really applied to tactical nukes anyway. Once the first one is dropped and there's no real response, we're in for some interesting times.

There's little real benefit to a tactical nuke though.

Ukraine doesn't have and isn't using massed formations of troops.

the only "use" of a tactical nuke is as a terror weapon.

[DGuller]

If there is anything 2020 has taught me, it's that the masses of people can collectively delude themselves to deny any fact or a logical conclusions stemming from facts, and they can stay deluded indefinitely even in the face of events challenging such delusions.  I no longer believe in some spring that pushes people back to reality once they strayed from it so far that everything becomes self-contradictory.  Consequently, I no longer believe that it's a realistic scenario that a "sane general" will stop Putin from going totally insane with nukes.

[Tamas]

If there is anything 2020 has taught me, it's that the masses of people can collectively delude themselves to deny any fact or a logical conclusions stemming from facts, and they can stay deluded indefinitely even in the face of events challenging such delusions.  I no longer believe in some spring that pushes people back to reality once they strayed from it so far that everything becomes self-contradictory.  Consequently, I no longer believe that it's a realistic scenario that a "sane general" will stop Putin from going totally insane with nukes.

Yeah but convincing yourself there is no virus is a way to achieve inertia and ensure you can remain in safe and familiar patterns. Letting your boss nuke the world is not that. Hopefully!

[Maladict]

I'm thinking the taboo on the use of tactical nukes is going to be broken. MAD never really applied to tactical nukes anyway. Once the first one is dropped and there's no real response, we're in for some interesting times.

There's little real benefit to a tactical nuke though.

Ukraine doesn't have and isn't using massed formations of troops.

the only "use" of a tactical nuke is as a terror weapon.

If Russia drops a tactical nuke on the first Ukrainian soldiers to set foot in Crimea, because it's Russian territory, that will change things. Even though the military benefit might be negligible.

[Tamas]

I'm thinking the taboo on the use of tactical nukes is going to be broken. MAD never really applied to tactical nukes anyway. Once the first one is dropped and there's no real response, we're in for some interesting times.

There's little real benefit to a tactical nuke though.

Ukraine doesn't have and isn't using massed formations of troops.

the only "use" of a tactical nuke is as a terror weapon.

If Russia drops a tactical nuke on the first Ukrainian soldiers to set foot in Crimea, because it's Russian territory, that will change things. Even though the military benefit might be negligible.

What I could find more plausible is a smaller Ukrainian city getting nuked as a "warning" once Ukrainians are clearly gaining ground in one of the occupied territories.