Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[FunkMonk]

If there's one thing I know for sure, it's that sending tens of thousands of unmotivated and poorly trained conscripts into a war where 50k-80k of your troops have already died within a few months will definitely win you the war.

[celedhring]

I know they are probably just going to use them just to plug holes and essentially be extra meat, but the fact they are giving them just two weeks of refresher training seems... ill-advised.

[Legbiter]

I know they are probably just going to use them just to plug holes and essentially be extra meat, but the fact they are giving them just two weeks of refresher training seems... ill-advised.

They'll have to learn on the job yeah. They can man a trench just about and die in frontal assaults.

[grumbler]

I know they are probably just going to use them just to plug holes and essentially be extra meat, but the fact they are giving them just two weeks of refresher training seems... ill-advised.

Agreed, but I haven't seen anything that actually says authoritatively that the plan is for just two weeks of training.

[Legbiter]

Morale doesn't look great:
https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306?s=20&t=SqcSZvR6aNBUYOewrIawwA

Yeah. This one is just incredible as well. A 14 second clip encapsulating the Russkiy mir experience.

Conscripts report for duty.

[celedhring]

I know they are probably just going to use them just to plug holes and essentially be extra meat, but the fact they are giving them just two weeks of refresher training seems... ill-advised.

Agreed, but I haven't seen anything that actually says authoritatively that the plan is for just two weeks of training.

The officer in the video that Sheilbh posted says they are getting 2 weeks of training.

[Josquius]

Read a statistic the other day that Russia is struggling with the dozen HIMARS Ukraine has and even a relatively minor NATO member like Romania has 40 of them with the Baltics rethinking their military strategy and investing heavily in them (switching to a 'stand and fight' strategy vs the old 'be overran and try to cause trouble and survive under a short occupation).

This got me thinking. How would individual NATO countries fair against Russia in a completely theoretical fantasy scenario where they're in Ukraine's place?
Assume they're armed as they are, given a month or two to prepare, but politically have the same relation with NATO as Ukraine does- they'll get resupplied but no military help. Also since its a fantasy they're bordering Russia similarly to Ukraine if they aren't already.

There's disadvantages for these countries in that they couldn't trade land for time as Ukraine has done, and of course Ukraine has had 8 years of training. But I do wonder quite how terribly Russia would do against a proper NATO standard army rather than Ukraine's Russia-lite slowly shifting to NATO model.

I think it could fairly be a given the stronger NATO members would smash Russia in a nuclear-free scenario. Though given the current mess in Germany that would be interesting....
Things could get very interesting with your Romanias however.

[celedhring]

Read a statistic the other day that Russia is struggling with the dozen HIMARS Ukraine has

Haven't they received a bunch of other MLRS systems from other countries that shoot the same munitions as a HIMARS?

EDIT: Wiki says they got "more than 10" M270s.

[Josquius]

Morale doesn't look great:
https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306?s=20&t=SqcSZvR6aNBUYOewrIawwA

Curious to see they seem to be sending the new conscripts to the front rather than following the sensible idea of using them to release professional soldiers from elsewhere.

[Tamas]

Morale doesn't look great:
https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/1573272879655010306?s=20&t=SqcSZvR6aNBUYOewrIawwA

Curious to see they seem to be sending the new conscripts to the front rather than following the sensible idea of using them to release professional soldiers from elsewhere.

I don't think we can conclude that from the video, but yeah I am dubious about the whole "this will just free up the masses of professional soldiers haven't deployed". I mean, sure you need active soldiers to garrison bases around the country, but just how much do you really need for that when you are a nuclear power? It's not like they face imminent danger on other borders.

[Legbiter]

Read a statistic the other day that Russia is struggling with the dozen HIMARS Ukraine has and even a relatively minor NATO member like Romania has 40 of them...

Yep, the Russians are fucked in Ukraine, facing the whole might of NATO because Uncle Sam gave them 16(!) launchers and enough ammo to go play with. Also helpful GPS coordinates on a daily basis...

[grumbler]

I know they are probably just going to use them just to plug holes and essentially be extra meat, but the fact they are giving them just two weeks of refresher training seems... ill-advised.

Agreed, but I haven't seen anything that actually says authoritatively that the plan is for just two weeks of training.

The officer in the video that Sheilbh posted says they are getting 2 weeks of training.

He says that training will begin in two weeks.  He doesn't mention its duration.

[Grey Fox]

I know they are probably just going to use them just to plug holes and essentially be extra meat, but the fact they are giving them just two weeks of refresher training seems... ill-advised.

Agreed, but I haven't seen anything that actually says authoritatively that the plan is for just two weeks of training.

The officer in the video that Sheilbh posted says they are getting 2 weeks of training.

He says that training will begin in two weeks.  He doesn't mention its duration.

Comments on the tweet are stating that the caption is wrong & that he's saying 2 weeks of training than deployment.

[Tamas]

So, even if we buy the narrative that these poor bastards will be used to, IDK, garrison barracks in Siberia so the current active soldiers can be sent from guard duty in Siberia to Ukraine, what is the actual difference? I am having a hard time believing that there are unengaged units left in Russia which were originally meant to see combat and thus might have any semblance of useful training.

As it was said already, the only key question left is whether there'll be nukes flying once this latest gambit fails.

[viper37]

Who gets Kaliningrad if when Russia collapses?

That would be quite the poisoned chalice as it's full of one million russians, so not sure any of Poland, Lithuania or Germany would be interested.

Well, there's a precedent in this area for deporting inconvenient populations