Hungarian Politics

[Tamas]

There are so many examples over the years (I think I shared a few here) of the police being in cahoots with the various private "security" firms and their thugs, this new one is a very minor one but still simbolises things very nicely.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1348257149317692

This is a small protest in front of one of the big (obviously oligarch-owned) casinos, protesters are chanting "let the rich pay!". It was organised by a small leftist organisation, whose leader is actually an opposition MP.

Anyways, you can see a bald gentleman -allegedly head of security- trying to force his way in despite the MP telling him he can get around them on the side. There is a tussle, then the security guy pulls the MP out of the crowd (around the 50 second mark), they face off for a second, and then a couple of police officers who had been standing ildly take the MP off him, while he is free to go back to the crowd, although after he removed the leader he just walks around the crowd and into the building.

The MP told the press that the police charged him with abusing the right to protest, and he has conceded his immunity as MP. He is not aware of any charges against the security guy charging a group of protesters standing there on a pre-approved protest.

[Tamas]

Price cap on petrol (instituted months before the war) is really starting to bite, hundreds of petrol stations around the country are closed and scenes of the recent Great British Fuel Panic are becoming commonplace in Hungary as people queue endlessly for the price-capped (95) petrol. I think non-capped premium petrol is still available but this is Eastern Europe, a penny saved is a great victory worth endless time and energy spent.

There is also growing lack of other price-capped products most notably sugar. I think the only thing saving the country from Venezuelaisation is its EU membership.

[Tamas]

EU members openly linked a vote on a joint loan to Ukraine with approving a big bunch of grants (reconstruction grants, I think) to Hungary. Everyone voted in favour of the Ukraine loan except Hungary who vetoed it. They'd rather give up on massive amounts of money rather than make it easy for the EU to fund Ukraine's efforts. Fucking traitors.

[Josquius]

EU members openly linked a vote on a joint loan to Ukraine with approving a big bunch of grants (reconstruction grants, I think) to Hungary. Everyone voted in favour of the Ukraine loan except Hungary who vetoed it. They'd rather give up on massive amounts of money rather than make it easy for the EU to fund Ukraine's efforts. Fucking traitors.

Smart move from Europe no? Playing orban at his own game.

[Tamas]

EU members openly linked a vote on a joint loan to Ukraine with approving a big bunch of grants (reconstruction grants, I think) to Hungary. Everyone voted in favour of the Ukraine loan except Hungary who vetoed it. They'd rather give up on massive amounts of money rather than make it easy for the EU to fund Ukraine's efforts. Fucking traitors.

Smart move from Europe no? Playing orban at his own game.

Definitely, Europe clearly needs to strangle this regime. But its shocking that with the Hungarian economy in a terrible shape, they'd rather lose all that money rather than skip on sabotaging anti-Russia efforts. It shows the extent to which Orban is Putin's puppet.

[Sheilbh]

EU members openly linked a vote on a joint loan to Ukraine with approving a big bunch of grants (reconstruction grants, I think) to Hungary. Everyone voted in favour of the Ukraine loan except Hungary who vetoed it. They'd rather give up on massive amounts of money rather than make it easy for the EU to fund Ukraine's efforts. Fucking traitors.

That's shifted, probably sensibly (it was also blocking the EU implementing the global deal on minimum taxation). The proposed Ukraine aid required unanimity so Hungary was the one linking it.

The council have now asked the Commission to prepare an alternative legal/financial "modality" for aid to Ukraine that doesn't require unanimity, but that will take time.

There's also been ping-pong over the suspension of EU funds to Hungary, basically because it looks increasingly like there aren't the votes to endorse the Commission's assessment on rule of law that would freeze funds. There's enough CEE countries plus Italy willing to vote against that it's not clear it would get through QMV. So EcoFin have also asked the Commission to prepare another assessment and to lower the amount of suspended cohesion funds.

On the upside it's likely that Ukrainian aid (and the tax deal) will get unlocked, but it also looks like the Commission will try to block less funding from Hungary and take a more benign view of Orban's "rule of law" reforms - which from what I've read are a bit Potemkin. I think member states/the council either still don't really get what they're dealing with in Hungary or have decided it's too hard and don't care enough

[Tamas]

They are not a bit Potemkin they are entirely Potemkin. It is a ridiculous notion to ask an autocracy to weaken itself. Any real return of independent oversight on corruption suspicions and charges would destroy the very fabric of Orban's regime. He will never, ever, introduce meaningful reforms which would even weaken -let alone destroy- his supremacy.

I can't believe EU politicians cannot see this.