Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Legbiter]

I don't think the referendums do anything to the Ukrainians, but by declaring those territories to be Russia now Russian soldiers can not longer legally refuse to be deployed there.

Yeah these referendums and subsequent nuclear threats will have absolutely the opposite of their intended effects but Putin is a strategic incompetent...

[Jacob]

Kazani suggests that the mobilization is at least partially a signal to Putin's cronies and peers that he is still special and can make the Russian people do what he wants (so therefore they still need him and shouldn't push him out). It's an interesting perspective.

[Jacob]

The playbook by the Russians seems to be that these sham referendums planned over next week will let the Russians scare off the Ukrainians from advancing and increasing Western support by threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Mobilized meat will then be used to backfill depleted units and allow for the Russians to finally rotate units on and off the line instead of just using them up until they collapse.

Yeah that seems about right.

I'm not particularly convinced it'll work. But I suppose as long as Putin and Russia hangs on, there's still hope (for Putin, I mean) that something will change somewhere... I guess the biggest hope is a collapse in Western support from Winter / Domestic changes, but I don't know how likely it is.

[Barrister]

The playbook by the Russians seems to be that these sham referendums planned over next week will let the Russians scare off the Ukrainians from advancing and increasing Western support by threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Mobilized meat will then be used to backfill depleted units and allow for the Russians to finally rotate units on and off the line instead of just using them up until they collapse.

Yeah that seems about right.

I'm not particularly convinced it'll work. But I suppose as long as Putin and Russia hangs on, there's still hope (for Putin, I mean) that something will change somewhere... I guess the biggest hope is a collapse in Western support from Winter / Domestic changes, but I don't know how likely it is.

Yeah, there's an election in Italy, and he's probably hoping for a new government that won't support sanctions.

Can't think of any that are likely to really swing things until 2024 US election.  That's the big one of course - if Trump comes back.  Trump has a bit of a grudge against Zelenskyy, and of course man-crushes on Putin...

[The Larch]

Just a random thought:

-does fear of being jailed and/or sent to fight an illegal war of aggression enough to qualify Russians as refugees?

The EU is discussing the possibility of giving fleeing Russian males humanitarian visas for the time being, it seems.

There have also been calls for the EU to support Russians who are looking for a way out of the draft.

The EU Commission spokesperson on home affairs, Anitta Hipper, said that the bloc would meet to discuss the issuance of humanitarian visas to Russians fleeing mobilisation. The three Baltic states said n Thursday, however, that they are not prepared to automatically offer asylum to Russians fleeing the draft

[Admiral Yi]

I don't think the referendums do anything to the Ukrainians, but by declaring those territories to be Russia now Russian soldiers can not longer legally refuse to be deployed there.

I agree with Pepe.  Annexed territory can be more easily sold to the Russian people as an invasion of the blessed Motherland and it makes the nuclear threat that much more credible.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Seems Russia might call up a million, rather than just 300k.

[Jacob]

The Dutch are organizing a referendum for Russians to agree to be absorbed by the Netherlands: https://twitter.com/henkvaness/status/1572790646011740160

[Admiral Yi]

Who gets Kaliningrad if when Russia collapses?

[Sheilbh]

Who gets Kaliningrad if when Russia collapses?

Nuclear Poland

[Barrister]

Who gets Kaliningrad if when Russia collapses?

That would be quite the poisoned chalice as it's full of one million russians, so not sure any of Poland, Lithuania or Germany would be interested.

[HVC]

Who gets Kaliningrad if when Russia collapses?

That would be quite the poisoned chalice as it's full of one million russians, so not sure any of Poland, Lithuania or Germany would be interested.

offer free transportation back to the motherland? With maybe a lump sum to sweeten the deal. Is that even legal?

As for offering fleeing Russians a place to run away to escape the draft, it's better to bottle them in. You should aim to increase internal pressure, not decrease it. Send back the ones that left since February too.

[Tamas]

While I don't expect them to be of any frontline value, seeing footage of lines of men flocking into local conscription centres do make me worried. This is an escalation and a big one. Maybe all it will do is raise the stakes for Russia, but that's enough to make things more dangerous and the outcome less predictable.

What's worst (or best?) about it of course is that the West has no option: selling out the Ukrainians would achieve nothing. We must stay the course and hope for the best.

[Josephus]

Saw CNN apparently reporting that Putin is giving instructions directly to generals in the field. It doesn't feel like we're far off the Tsar going to command the front.

I think that's one sense in which "Putin's war" is true. Could be wrong, but I suspect his fate and that of the war are totally tied together.

Totally. As I said earlier, I think the mobilization order is the beginning of the end for him. The only wild card now is whether he'll go all nuclear or not. Honestly, I havent' been as concerned about the nuclear option before as I am now.

[Tamas]

Saw CNN apparently reporting that Putin is giving instructions directly to generals in the field. It doesn't feel like we're far off the Tsar going to command the front.

I think that's one sense in which "Putin's war" is true. Could be wrong, but I suspect his fate and that of the war are totally tied together.

Totally. As I said earlier, I think the mobilization order is the beginning of the end for him. The only wild card now is whether he'll go all nuclear or not. Honestly, I havent' been as concerned about the nuclear option before as I am now.

Agree completely