Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[viper37]

Honestly, I havent' been as concerned about the nuclear option before as I am now.

I'm still not.  Before a nuke hits my town, it means all the world will be a nuclear wasteland anyway.  Oh wait...

[mongers]

Given how further Putin/ism has corrupted the Russian state, I think we can assume this mobilisation will be handled with little regard to it's military effectiveness.
Instead corrupt officials and military will use it as another opportunity to further their own financial and political aims, they won't have any regards for the war aims, let along the survival of these reservists.

[viper37]

Read a statistic the other day that Russia is struggling with the dozen HIMARS Ukraine has and even a relatively minor NATO member like Romania has 40 of them with the Baltics rethinking their military strategy and investing heavily in them (switching to a 'stand and fight' strategy vs the old 'be overran and try to cause trouble and survive under a short occupation).

This got me thinking. How would individual NATO countries fair against Russia in a completely theoretical fantasy scenario where they're in Ukraine's place?
Assume they're armed as they are, given a month or two to prepare, but politically have the same relation with NATO as Ukraine does- they'll get resupplied but no military help. Also since its a fantasy they're bordering Russia similarly to Ukraine if they aren't already.

There's disadvantages for these countries in that they couldn't trade land for time as Ukraine has done, and of course Ukraine has had 8 years of training. But I do wonder quite how terribly Russia would do against a proper NATO standard army rather than Ukraine's Russia-lite slowly shifting to NATO model.

I think it could fairly be a given the stronger NATO members would smash Russia in a nuclear-free scenario. Though given the current mess in Germany that would be interesting....
Things could get very interesting with your Romanias however.

Depends on the leadership.

Under Pierre Poilièvre, Canada would blame the Liberal traitors and join Russia's new world order.

Under Justin Trudeau, he'd bribe his way to safety and let us rot.

[Barrister]

Depends on the leadership.

Under Pierre Poilièvre, Canada would blame the Liberal traitors and join Russia's new world order.

Under Justin Trudeau, he'd bribe his way to safety and let us rot.

on both counts.

I'd like to think that if Canada actually existed on Russia's border we'd have a very different defence policy to start with.  But otherwise the hypothetical is just so bizarre it's hard to imagine.  We have a much smaller armed forces than Ukraine did at the start of the war, and Ukraine spent (pre-February) a much larger portion of it's budget on the military.  But of course that's because we can "get away" with doing so, being protected on 3 sides by ocean and the 4th side by a mostly reliable ally.

[Barrister]

Apparently Russians are sending armed soldiers to residents apartments to force them to vote in the "referendum" on joining Russia.

[grumbler]

Apparently Russians are sending armed soldiers to residents apartments to force them to vote in the "referendum" on joining Russia.

And refusing to let military-age Ukrainians to flee the areas Russia intends to steal, because they then plan to draft those Ukrainians.  Having a bunch of soldiers intent only on stealing their equipment and defecting is surely going to add to Russia's military effectiveness.

[The Larch]

More international ripples of the war.

Berlusconi claims Russians 'pushed' Putin into Ukraine war
Italian former PM's party is part of coalition expected to win Sunday's general election

Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's three-time former prime minister, whose party is forecast to return to government after the general election on Sunday, has sparked a row after defending the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over the war in Ukraine.

The 85-year-old billionaire told Italian TV that Putin, an old friend of his, was pushed to invade Ukraine by the Russian people and by ministers who wanted Volodymyr Zelenskiy's administration replaced with "decent people".

Berlusconi, who has condemned the war, told the chatshow Porta a Porta that separatists had gone to Moscow and told the media that Ukraine's attacks had caused 16,000 deaths and that Putin was doing nothing to defend them.

"Putin was pushed by the Russian population, by his party and by his ministers to invent this special operation," Berlusconi said. "The troops were supposed to enter, reach Kyiv within a week, replace Zelenskiy's government with decent people and then leave. Instead they found resistance, which was then fed by arms of all kinds from the west."

Berlusconi's Forza Italia is the junior partner in a coalition led by Giorgia Meloni's hard-right Brothers of Italy and including Matteo Salvini's League that is forecast to comfortably win the election. Berlusconi is running for senator in the ballot.

During his time as prime minister, Berlusconi nurtured close relations with Putin, praising his leadership and helping to forge energy deals that some blame for Italy being so dependent on Russian gas today.

Forza Italia and the League supported sending arms to Ukraine when they were part of Mario Draghi's broad coalition, which collapsed in July, as did Brothers of Italy. As a coalition, they have promised to continue Italy's support of Ukraine.

"The war has lasted more than 200 days," Berlusconi said. "The situation has become very difficult. I feel ill when I hear of the dead because I have always believed that war is the greatest madness of all."

Enrico Letta, the leader of the centre-left Democratic party, said Berlusconi's remarks were scandalous and "legitimised Moscow".

He said: "Those comments demonstrate that in part of our electoral system, on the right but not only, there are those who, in short, say: 'Let's stop this war, let's give Putin what he wants.' I find that unacceptable."

Salvini has also nurtured ties with Russia, heaped praise on Putin in the past and criticised the economic sanctions against the country over its war in Ukraine for "bringing Italy to its knees".

Oooh, poor Putin, pushed into a war he didn't want... 

[Josquius]

Encouraging I guess? Putin is trying to play the evil advisors misled the King card and offer up some sacrifices to get out of the war.

Which... Provided Ukraine gets all its territory back, though it feels kind of dirty, isn't entirely awful.

[The Minsky Moment]

He says that training will begin in two weeks.  He doesn't mention its duration.

They'll get at least 2 weeks on trains.

[crazy canuck]

Report from the NYT.  Cue the line about those who do not learn history...

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

[Syt]

https://www.euronews.com/2022/09/23/kremlin-spokesmans-son-refuses-to-join-russian-army-in-prank-call

Kremlin spokesman's son refuses to join Russian army in prank call

The son of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov refused to join Russia's army in a prank call with opposition activists.

The viral stunt was released online shortly after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a "partial mobilisation".

Dmitry Peskov told reporters that he was "aware of it" but stated that the full transcript of the phone call had not been published.

The hoax was conducted live by Dmitri Nizovtsev, host of "People's Politics" YouTube channel that was created by supporters of jailed Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny.

In the viral video, Nizovtsev called Nikolai Peskov, posing as an army recruiter in charge of calling up reservists to fight in Ukraine.


"A summons [for medical examination] was sent to you today," Nizovtsev said in a firm voice to Nikolai Peskov.

But the 32-year-old implied that he would refuse to be enlisted, stating "of course, I won't come tomorrow at 10:00."

"You must understand, if you know that I am Mr Peskov, how wrong it is for me to be there," he added, apparently disconcerted.

"I will deal with it on another level," Nikolai said, before stating that he is not a volunteer "rank and file".

"I have no problem defending my homeland - but I need to understand the expediency of my appearance there, I am talking about certain political nuances."

Moscow has said that the "partial mobilisation" would only involve300,000 reservists who have "military experience" but some citizens are fleeing the country following Putin's speech.

[celedhring]

Report from the NYT.  Cue the line about those who do not learn history...

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

I guess they can supply it by air.

[Tamas]

Report from the NYT.  Cue the line about those who do not learn history...

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of Kherson.

I guess they can supply it by air.

 

[Legbiter]

Mobilization is going well...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1573650479799799809

The only card left to play for Putin is nuclear brinkmanship.

[Berkut]

Mobilization is going well...

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1573650479799799809

The only card left to play for Putin is nuclear brinkmanship.

Indeed. I am worried.

I can easily see him playing that card without any intention of going through with it, and then finding himself going through with it.