Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Jacob]

Another thought...

So, it seems Russia is putting the mobilization burden primarily on poorer, more distant non-Russian regions.

Say they don't all get killed and eventually return to their home regions with military connections and experiences and - just maybe - a grudge against the Moscow regime. I wonder if this could be sewing seeds for future instability?

Or maybe Putin figures he can pull a Chechnya on them, throwing lots of money at a few morally abhorrent warlords to suppress the population and wield them as personal armies?

[Barrister]

Another thought...

So, it seems Russia is putting the mobilization burden primarily on poorer, more distant non-Russian regions.

Say they don't all get killed and eventually return to their home regions with military connections and experiences and - just maybe - a grudge against the Moscow regime. I wonder if this could be sewing seeds for future instability?

Or maybe Putin figures he can pull a Chechnya on them, throwing lots of money at a few morally abhorrent warlords to suppress the population and wield them as personal armies?

Who knows?  Putin is definitely playing with fire here.  There's a reason he did not want to mobilize.

[Jacob]

Interesting Twitter thread by Sam Greene on the recruitment drive: https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1572979404258803712

The conclusion:

What we're seeing now bears that analysis out: Rather than correcting the mistakes of the earlier phases of this war, the Russian administrative machinery is deepening them. The scenes we're seeing from Dagestan are evidence of the potential consequences of that.

...

The Kremlin's coercive apparatus will now have to pick up the tab for this administrative dysfunction, seeing off protests and rounding up reluctant recruits. If they're mostly facing down big-city liberals, they'll probably make it through.

...

But if the Kremlin needs to suppress the communities from which the military is trying to recruit troops, it may struggle. It's not just that blue-collar workers might fight harder on the streets, though it's that, too.

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If the Kremlin tries to repress ethnic minorities, they will sharpen identities, imbue those identities with a sense of injustice, and swing horizontal social institutions into the fight -- institutions that can be much more legitimate in these communities than Putin is.

[Sheilbh]

IMO Russia is absolutely a colonial power, but it's not the last one. There's China too (Tibet, Xinjiang).

Agree on China. I think there's also probably a question of when you get to move from settler colony, which is what lots of Russia is/was, to "post-colonial"? That will also affect what countries you consider colonial.

Recruitment isn't going overly well in some places in Dagestan: https://twitter.com/WhereisRussia/status/1572926018742099968

And, from Francis Scarr, a prominent Russian human rights lawyer says he's aware of multiple reports of men in their 40s, 50s and even 60s () receiving enlistment notices.

Say they don't all get killed and eventually return to their home regions with military connections and experiences and - just maybe - a grudge against the Moscow regime. I wonder if this could be sewing seeds for future instability?

The perception of unfairness in Afghanistan was, from what I understand, a big factor in natioinalism in Ukraine, Georgia etc. Apparently the stats don't bear it out - at least on casualties - they are broadly distributed proportionately to population. Obviously local big-wigs everywhere could get their kids out of it.

I can't see how it won't have that sort of impact when it's actually happening. And the Soviet Union was far more controlled as a society, especially on information but the impact of Afghanistan was felt through the visible reality of people coming home without a limb, families in the same town or village getting notice that their sons had died. All of which meant even though the formal information was controlled, people knew it was going badly. I imagine that must be happening but is being concentrated in certain regions so much more than others that it feels that will have an impact.

[Josquius]

I was just reading a piece not too long ago about the kremlins struggles vs regional governments particularly in areas with large ethnic populations. Just noticed I still had the tab open and shut it earlier today.
Quite interesting and makes me wonder about current happenings.

https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/moscows-fight-against-federalism-fear-and-loathing-in-russias-catalonia/

[Barrister]

I was just reading a piece not too long ago about the kremlins struggles vs regional governments particularly in areas with large ethnic populations. Just noticed I still had the tab open and shut it earlier today.
Quite interesting and makes me wonder about current happenings.

https://warontherocks.com/2018/01/moscows-fight-against-federalism-fear-and-loathing-in-russias-catalonia/

That's Kamil Galeev again.  A very interesting Twitter follow, but one wonders if he's reporting what he wants to be the case rather than a more dispassionate analysis.  I believe he is an ethnic Tatar himself.

[Barrister]

Just a random thought:

-does fear of being jailed and/or sent to fight an illegal war of aggression enough to qualify Russians as refugees?

[Sheilbh]

Saw CNN apparently reporting that Putin is giving instructions directly to generals in the field. It doesn't feel like we're far off the Tsar going to command the front.

I think that's one sense in which "Putin's war" is true. Could be wrong, but I suspect his fate and that of the war are totally tied together.

[Solmyr]

So apparently Putin is now personally giving directions to the generals on the front. https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/22/politics/russia-military-divided-ukraine-putin/index.html

That has traditionally worked so well in Russia.

[Admiral Yi]

Saw CNN apparently reporting that Putin is giving instructions directly to generals in the field. It doesn't feel like we're far off the Tsar going to command the front.

Closer to Hitler I would think.

[Jacob]

Well given Putin's extensive military training and highly developed understanding of campaigning and warfare this should... oh wait, I'm getting a note here... Putin doesn't have any of those qualities? Oh dear....

[Admiral Yi]

I saw a video in which General (ret) Hodges whom I linked before talked about, among other things, the reliance of Russian troops in the Kherson region (which he pronounced sort of like Hear Son) on three bridges over the Dnepro, all of which are within artillery range and under constant shelling.  Potentially another rout brewing on that front.

He also talked about how the Black Sea Fleet is hiding behind Crimea because they don't want to die from Harpoons.

[Grey Fox]

Yes, hear-son is right. You don't pronounce that K has a hard k but softer kh sound.

[Legbiter]

The playbook by the Russians seems to be that these sham referendums planned over next week will let the Russians scare off the Ukrainians from advancing and increasing Western support by threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Mobilized meat will then be used to backfill depleted units and allow for the Russians to finally rotate units on and off the line instead of just using them up until they collapse.

[Barrister]

The playbook by the Russians seems to be that these sham referendums planned over next week will let the Russians scare off the Ukrainians from advancing and increasing Western support by threatening the use of nuclear weapons. Mobilized meat will then be used to backfill depleted units and allow for the Russians to finally rotate units on and off the line instead of just using them up until they collapse.

I don't think the referendums do anything to the Ukrainians, but by declaring those territories to be Russia now Russian soldiers can not longer legally refuse to be deployed there.