Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Barrister]

UK Ministry of Defence:

Russian drafted troops will be sent to the front with minimal training, and likely to suffer "high levels of attrition".

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1574265869097738241

[Valmy]

What is even the point of poorly trained troops on the modern battlefield?

What is Russia even doing? So much of what they have done since February seems like that are almost trying to sabotage themselves. For instance their withdrawal from the Northern Front where they left behind about two army corps worth of abandoned equipment. Now intentionally antagonizing their population and causing panic and for what? So they can send a few hundred thousand poorly trained low morale soldiers to just die, run away, or surrender?

[OttoVonBismarck]

This current conscription drive has literally zero to do with anything related to military effectiveness, it is Putin shoring up support from his nationalist flank, because he fears that segment of Russia turning on him more than he fears outrage in places like Dagestan and St. Petersburg. Time will tell how wise this calculation was.

[Barrister]

What is even the point of poorly trained troops on the modern battlefield?

What is Russia even doing? So much of what they have done since February seems like that are almost trying to sabotage themselves. For instance their withdrawal from the Northern Front where they left behind about two army corps worth of abandoned equipment. Now intentionally antagonizing their population and causing panic and for what? So they can send a few hundred thousand poorly trained low morale soldiers to just die, run away, or surrender?

I think Putin is taking lessons from the myth of the Great Patriotic War.  Russians tell themselves they won by doing just this - a huge general mobilization and throwing waves of soldiers at the enemy.

But A: WWII was 80 years ago.  Modern battlefield technology is vastly different.  B: WWII was a defensive war with a huge difference in terms of morale.  C: Russia was being heavily supplied by the US and allies

This current conscription drive has literally zero to do with anything related to military effectiveness, it is Putin shoring up support from his nationalist flank, because he fears that segment of Russia turning on him more than he fears outrage in places like Dagestan and St. Petersburg. Time will tell how wise this calculation was.

I think Putin is badly informed and making bad decisions, but he's still rational.

he knows the downsides of this "partial mobilization".  He has to think (however incorrectly) that it'll make a difference on the battlefield.

However much he fears his "nationalist flank", he knows that a decisive loss in Ukraine will hurt him more.

[Barrister]

It's Time so not amazing writing, but a nice profile on General Zaluzhny, head of Ukraine's military:

https://time.com/6216213/ukraine-military-valeriy-zaluzhny/

[Jacob]

On the "why mobilize", Kamil Kazani had an interesting perspective on why Putin chose mobilization. It's sort of a variation of the "shore up support from the Fascist flank" view.

Basically, he said, Putin is demonstrating (because he has to) to his near peers (i.e. his first tiers of cronies who could replace him if they collectively decided to) that he still has unique value - that he can compel the obedience of the masses, which none of them can. So the mobilization is not just about military effectiveness (which Putin may or may not believe in) or about giving the hardliners what they demand (which potentially sets them up as scapegoats if the mobilization fails to have an impact), but to demonstrate power to maintain power.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

I think the opposition of Kazakhstan and the mild reprimands from India, China etc is showing that while there is a huge amount of tolerance for massively manipulating and stretching the rules-based order, there is very limited support for blatantly and massively just breaking it.

Probably because most governments, especially of non-great-powers, know that the international order as designed by the US/Western Allies after WW2 generally works in favour of those states.

[Josquius]

Really hope Ukraine has something cooking to encourage defections from the unwilling conscripts.

I really suspect the point of this is basically just to keep grinding the Ukrainians to a small extent but the main gain being ethnic cleansing in Russia and occupied Ukraine.

[Jacob]

Mobilized Russian shoots and kills commanding drafting officer. Says going to prison is better than going to the front.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1574282010499190784 [warning: the video shows the killing in the first couple of seconds, though it's hard to see]

[PDH]

Mobilized Russian shoots and kills commanding drafting officer. Says going to prison is better than going to the front.

Hell, it is Russia - he can go to jail and THEN go to the front a couple of weeks later.

[Jacob]

Hell, it is Russia - he can go to jail and THEN go to the front a couple of weeks later

Might not be wise, given his record of being willing to shoot superior officers. But who knows.

[PDH]

Might not be wise, given his record of being willing to shoot superior officers. But who knows.

The Russians obviously don't know.

[HVC]

He has a ruthless take charge attitude, he'll be a commander in no time. Especially once he takes out the competition.

[Legbiter]

What is even the point of poorly trained troops on the modern battlefield?

What is Russia even doing?

The play is to stop further territory from being liberated while formally annexing all gains made so far. After which we'll begin to see mobile nuclear missile launchers being moved closer to Ukraine along with greater readiness among their strategic rocket forces. Then Russia will directly threaten nuclear retaliation unless Ukraine negotiates. 

Yeah it won't work, the annexations will mean that Ukraine will never negotiate and so moron Putin is now directly responsible for the loss of Russian soil to Ukraine and he will have conflated and muddled the status of Crimea so much that retaking it will be on the Ukrainian To Do list.

[viper37]

1) What is even the point of poorly trained troops on the modern battlefield?

2) What is Russia even doing? So much of what they have done since February seems like that are almost trying to sabotage themselves. For instance their withdrawal from the Northern Front where they left behind about two army corps worth of abandoned equipment. Now intentionally antagonizing their population and causing panic and for what? So they can send a few hundred thousand poorly trained low morale soldiers to just die, run away, or surrender?

1) I'm not sure.  They're trying to replicate past successes by overwhelming the enemy while their artillery pounds them to dust?  The problem is, they are outgunned here, and they'll be the ones pounded to dust.

2) Putin is trying to do something, showing he is still in control of the situation.  I think at this point, it's more about internal politics.